NAB Morning Call

Thursday 10th September 2026

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Oil prices rose further overnight as Iran fired at US navy vessels, forcing counter attacks from both sides. One Iranian official described it as an existential fight for survival for which there is no backing down. Bond yields rose sharply in the US and Europe overnight, despite Scott Bessen t’s announcement of a $6 billion buyback in 10–20-year bonds. NAB’s Sally Auld says yields rose because the size of the buyback was less than expected, whilst the same factors remain to push yields higher, including the level of debt and the competition from bond issuance from AI companies who continue to up their spending. Tonight the ECB is expected to lift rates, as markets prepare for US CPI tomorrow, with PPI data out tonight.

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Wednesday 9th September 2026

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Oil is higher because more is happening in the Middle East. That’s adding to inflation concerns. There are tensions elsewhere too- between the US and Israel (Israel has closed a UK consulate in East Jerusalem), and between the US and Canada with Canada imposing tit for tat tariffs, whilst promising closer ties with Europe. Locally the NAB Business Survey showed a move down in confidence, as did the Westpac consumer survey. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much falling house prices had to play in both those results. 

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Tuesday 8th September 2026

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Trade was thin overnight with the US on holiday, but the Yen pushed to its highest level since February, beating the US-Japan coordinated attempt to push it higher in late July. NAB’s Gavin friend says markets are assuming the BoJ will do the right thing, which would make the Yen seem undervalued. Oil is higher and could easily nudge over US$100 for Brent over the next day or two. Copper also hit a high as demand continues to outstrip supply, and traders buy ahead for fear of US tariffs coming to fruition. Today there’s a lot to focus on locally, including two interviews with RBA speakers, the NAB Business Survey and Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment report.

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Monday 7th September 2026

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Non-farm payrolls numbers in the US on Friday were strong, including an upward revision to the previous two months. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it is difficult to argue against the idea the labour market there is in particularly good health. That removes one reason for the Fed not to lift rates next week, so everything now rests on the CPI and PPI data this week. The US president  meanwhile argues that the Fed should be taking rates to the lowest in the world, whilst threatening to stop trade with any country they have a trade deficit with. Oil moved higher on Friday and could easily top $100 this week as tensions heighten in the Gulf, despite Presidential claims that oil traffic is close to pre-war levels.

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Friday 4th September 2026

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It’s an uncertain world, perhaps more than ever before. Brad Carr is NAB’s Executive for Geopolitical Risk and he joins Phil to discuss the five themes that concern him. That includes the ongoing war in the Middle East and the increasing sophistication of cybercrime. The third issue is the new trade order, where global supply changes are being replaced by self-reliance and self-interest. We are also about to face the Super El Niño, impacting the Australian agricultural sector which is already struggling with higher fertiliser costs. Finally, Brad suggests increasing assertiveness from China presents a threat. There are other concerns too, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifts in European politics and the multifaceted risks of AI. Brad acknowledges he is often portrayed as the doomsayer at NAB, but he said the positive counter is that Australia is protected from the worst aspects of much of this, by nature of our geography, geology and political structure. And Brad outlines three areas of focus we should adopt to ensure we benefit from the uncertainty, not get dragged down by it.

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Friday 4th September 2026

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There might not need to be a rate hike from the Fed. That’s been the takeout from a Reuters interview overnight with the bank's Christopher Waller, who suggested there are signs of disinflation which might mean there’s less need for a policy adjustment. There was a swift response in bond markets and a weakening US dollar. There’s also been a substantial rise in the Yen. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, why? Waller’s comments make next week’s CPI figures more significant than ever and Rodrigo suggests the number to look for. Meanwhile, non-farm payrolls tonight will also be influential, with some signs that the jobs market is weakening.

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Thursday 3rd September 2026

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Unease in the Gulf continues to push oil prices higher today and fears of persistent inflation mean bond yields continue to rise in Europe. expectations for rate hikes, eve n as they moderate a little in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phi to talk through a mixed session, influenced by a hawkish Bank of Canada, a dovish RBNZ and words from the fed’s John Williams suggesting inflationary pressures in the US might be easing. Meanwhile yesterday’s stronger than expected GDP numbers for Australia reinforce NAB’s view that the RBA will hike later this month.  

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Wednesday 2nd September 2026

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Oil prices have risen sharply with further attacks from both sides in the Gulf. That’s pushed bond yields higher in a world that is struggling to contain inflation. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about the issue of rising yields which, in Japan have hit a 30 year high. New UK PM Andy Burnham gave his first speech to parliament, and yields there have risen 16bp, which Ray describes as another example of bond vigilantes at work. They also look ahead to today’s Australian GDP numbers, which are unlikely to change NAB’s view that the RBA will lift rates at their next meeting. Meanwhile the RBNZ is expected to lift rates today, with the Bank of Canada holding back for now.

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Tuesday 1st September 2026

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Month end rebalancing has been complicated by Scott Bessent talking up the case for successive rate rises by the Bank of Japan, to help boost the Yen, whilst attacks from both sides in the Gulf has reaffirmed that the war is not over and oil prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through all this, plus the continued weakness in the Chinese economy, and the latest data to feed into tomorrow’s Australian GDP numbers. 

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Monday 31st August 2026

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Could Kevin Warsh be more hawkish than Jerome Powell was? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks to Phil about the Fed chair’s speech at Jackson Hole, which now has markets pricing a greater chance than not of a rate hike at the next meeting. They also discuss President Trump’s plan for a US government majority stake in a massive new Venezuelan oil company. Will it happen? There’s little evidence so far of Operation Economic Outcast. There’s a busy week ahead for data, including European inflation today, Australian GDP mid-week, two central banks and US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

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