NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 19th August 2026

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Whilst the middle East has been a preoccupation for many of late, the growing concern now shifts to bond yields, which have been steadily rising, with 30-year yields in the US breaking a multi decade high again. Phil puts it to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril that this is not just inflation concerns, given real yields are also rising. Rodrigo talks through the other market concerns, including concerns about governments’ ongoing fiscal commitments. This is getting passed on to equity markets the last few sessions because the rising cost of borrowing will hit those big-tech firms with big borrowing commitments. They a also look at UK data, words from the ECB and look ahead to today’s wages data for Australia. What’s the sweet spot we should be looking for?

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Tuesday 18th August 2026

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It wasn’t a positive start to the week. Equities are lower, bond yields higher, reaching multi -decade highs at the long end in many places, with more evidence that the Iran situation is going to drag on. Activity data from China didn’t help. But it’s not all gloom. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through the latest data from the US, China, Japan and Canada, and to look ahead to today’s UK jobs and wages data.

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Monday 17th August 2026

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There’s a little less optimism around according to Friday’s University of Michigan consumer survey. Retail sales were also a disappointment, so the US finished the week with shares down, bond yields higher and oil prices higher. President Trump told the American people they should be prepared to pay more for gasoline in exchange for control over Iran’s nuclear ambitions but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, that doesn’t seem to be helping him in the opinion polls. This week it’ll be interesting to see how the US performs in the latest PMI measures, contrasted with Europe which seems to be showing a little more hope lately.

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Friday 7th August 2026

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As massive capital expenditure pours into artificial intelligence, the narrative is rapidly shifting from speculative equity gains to a major structural opportunity across debt and credit markets. This week Phil is joined by NAB’s Head of Credit Strategy, Peter Fullerton, to explore why credit markets might offer a far safer, cash-flow-backed alternative to navigating a potential tech equity bubble. Peter explains that while tech hyperscalers are turning free cash flow negative to fund relentless CapEx—causing corporate debt spreads to widen—they still enter debt markets with resilient, high-grade balance sheets that shield bondholders far better than the dot-com era ever did. Closer to home, the focus turns to the physical infrastructure build-out: how Australia's expanding data centre footprint and transmission grid rollouts are creating high-yielding, long-tenor, investment-grade paper backed by tier-one tenants. Are equity markets ignoring the monetization wall ahead, and is local credit the smartest way to extract yield from the AI wave without risking the downside of an equity reckoning?

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Friday 14th August 2026

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US producer price growth came in a little lower than expected, giving hopes that inflation is trending lower. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the market response, with expectations for Fed hikes weakening, even as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock said they might need two hikes before the year is out. Ken also talks with Phil about the speech yesterday by the RBA’s Chris Kent, the UK’s surprise GDP read, and the day ahead, of which US retail sales is the focus.

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Thursday 13th August 2026

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Market action has been very contained overnight, with small moves down in oil, glacial moves for currencies and bonds and share moves largely confined to US infrastructure plays. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss yesterday’s US inflation data which, although rising, was no worse than expected. Hence the muted response. Today the focus will be on US PPI and what the RBA’s Christopher Kwent has to say on a livestreamed fireside chat this morning.

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Wednesday 12th August 2026

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It was, as expected, a fairly hawkish RBA yesterday. As NAB’s Skye Masters explains, tweaks to forecasts were relatively minor and they still expect to see inflation back on target in the second half of next year, but Michelle Bullock said she personally believes another hike this year might be necessary. ‘We’ll have to wait and see,’ she said, which seems to be the markets approach to everything right now, including the impacts of the Gulf, which is in stalemate. The impact of that, and AI spending and wage growth will be watched for in today’s US CPI. Will price growth slow? We’ll have to wait and see.

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Tuesday 11th August 2026

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On a session that’s been light on for data the focus has been on the two major undercurrents of the year. First, the Gulf. Oil pushes a little higher as talks have taken a back seat and the US seems prepared to wait it out as their blockade hits the Iranian economy. Shares were down a little as a consortium announced a half trillion-dollar funding package for AI. Phil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if the market response is a signal that some are still worried about a bubble? Today the focus is the NAB Business Survey and the RBA. A hold is likely and markets aren’t fully pricing a hike at all this year, but could that change?

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Monday 10th August 2026

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US payrolls data surprised most on Friday with a weaker than expected number of jobs, but also a fall in the unemployment rate. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether US immigration policies are part of the picture here. Rodrigo also suggests that lower unemployment and weaker wage growth gives the Fed more time to decide on policy changes, with two CPI prints before the next meeting, the first of those this week. Oil meanwhile remains range bound as the future in the Gulf remains uncertain. Iran is demanding more before agreeing to reopening of the Hormuz Strait. This week the RBA meeting is the key focus, inconveniently scheduled for the same day as the NAB Business Survey.

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Friday 7th August 2026

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Australia is aiming to reach Net Zero by 2050. Will we make it? There are heaps of initiatives underway, but do we know whether the cumulative effect is enough for us to hit the target? Phil talks to Toby Phillips, economics director at the Centre for Policy Development, about how the country’s approach is being coordinated. It’s not being coordinated well enough, seems to be Toby’s take – with no government department or agency fully owning the targets and outcomes. Is the Climate Change Authority’s proposed Evidence Platform a step towards a more coordinated approach, offering more current data rather than lagging indicators which might just show we are off-target? The CPD in their submission on the proposed platform said it would need to consider social equity, finance and policy. He talks through the importance of each on this week’s podcast. 

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