NAB Morning Call

Monday 27th July 2026

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Fighting between the US and Iran eased back on Friday after 13 nights of continual bombardment. The US President says talks are ongoing, and NAB’s Sally Auld wonders whether the $100 mark for oil acts as an inducement for both sides to calm things down. The risk, though, is the rise in activity between the Saudis and Houthis. Meanwhile, positive PMI data on Friday. Sally takes us through that ad UK retail sales, all helped, perhaps by the World Cup. There’s a busy week ahead, with the BoE, Fed and BoJ meeting, plus Australian inflation numbers middle of the week.

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Friday 24th July 2026

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As the Brent price climbs back into triple digits and the tensions in the Gulf show no sign of easing, what does that mean for the price of gold. Logic would have dictated that geopolitical unease would strengthen gold as investors look for an inflation-proof safe haven. Instead, the opposite has happened. Prices fell. Why? More significantly why had they risen so much in the last couple of years? And the question everyone has, does it hold steady or does it fall down with the same momentum that we saw fuel its meteoric rise? Phil asks John Reade all those questions. He is senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, who suggests the price is being driven less by geopolitics and more by government debt. Listen in for a fascinating half hour discussion about how the driving forces behind gold prices are changing.

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Friday 24th July 2026

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Oil is back into triple digits this morning as Houthis fire on Saudi vessels in the red Sea and reports of retaliatory action on Iran’s Qeshm Island. At the same time, equities have taken a hit after Alphabet and Telsa earnings. Shares for both are well down because, although revenues are strong, the cash-burn rate in each case is flagged as a major concern, and Tesla had to reduce prices to hold-up sales resulting in much lower margins. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about these two major developments overnight, as well as examining Australia’s employment data yesterday, which showed more people working, but the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. Taylor explains what’s happening and what it could mean for the RBA.

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Thursday 23rd July 2026

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Oil continues to rise as diplomacy in the Gulf rapidly disappears. Donald Trump is now threatening retaliatory action each time Iran fires at a vessel in the Hormuz strait, whilst promising Saudi Arabia a deal to enrich uranium on their territory. Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through oil prices and inflation expectations, as well as examining UK CPI numbers, today’s Australian labour market data and what’s expected from the Bank of Canada. Plus, the first of the major tech earnings results after the market close in the US.

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Wednesday 22nd July 2026

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Intelligence suggests that Iran has moved its nuclear capability inside Pickaxe Mountain, which the US President has said they will attack, heavily. That, together with an IEA warning and Saudi ships turning around in the Red Sea has pushed oil higher, back into the nineties, with the potential to go much further. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the market response to this, plus the rebound in equities, particularly for chipmakers, ahead of Alphabet and Tesla earnings this morning. Plus, yesterday’s employment data, today’s CPI and how the new UK PM is treading a careful path on spending.

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Tuesday 21st July 2026

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Oil prices were on the rise but have eased a little on the hope that maybe a 10-day ceasefire could quell the escalating tensions in the Gulf, after nine nights of open hostilities. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through how markets continue to manage their way through the uncertainty. Higher oil prices have had limited impact on the underlying inflation in Canada, with the softer than expected CPI print giving no reason fro the bank of Canada to do anything except watch and wait. Words from Andy Burnham on his first day as UK PM have pushed bond yields higher, but they retraced a little as he gave the Chancellor role to what many consider a safer pair of hands. New Zealand’s CPI is the main focus in the region today.

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Monday 20th July 2026

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Oil prices were pushed higher as tensions in the Gulf escalate, and with more happening over the weekend there’s every chance oil prices will push higher still. Tech stocks took a hit on Friday with news of the imminent release of Kimi K3, China’s latest agentic open-source AI offering that challenges the supposed superiority of US solutions. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss both developments, and to look ahead to a week dominated by CPI numbers (NZ, UK, Japan, and Canada) and Australian labour market data.

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Friday 17th July 2026

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The petroleum resource rent tax has been around since 1988. It was introduced by the Hawke government as a way to tax the super-profits from petroleum and gas companies extracting offshore resources, without reducing the incentive for new investments. There have been many tweaks to the system over the years, some following the Callaghan Review, commissioned by Scott Morrison in 2017. Now, the government is indicating it wants to see more money from these companies, which would mean more ‘tweaks’ to the system, or perhaps a totally new approach. But that’s easier said than done. Lachlan Vass, research manager at the e61 Institute, joins Phil to talk through the rationale behind the original approach, what’s changed, and why more changes might work, but could also be costly or counterproductive.

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Friday17th July 2026

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It’s been a quiet day for data but another busy 24 hours for action in the Gulf. In the US retail sales rose, the Philly fed manufacturing index is up, job claims are down – and for a reminder of how great things are, Donald trump is giving an address to the nation this morning our time. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this moderate rise in US exceptionalism and discusses why oil has fallen despite declining hope for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It’s been stuck in a tight trading range the last few days, what will push it out of that and in which direction? Inflation expectations from the Michigan Fed’s Consumer Survey today will be of interest, but it’s a light calendar for data releases.

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Thursday 16th July 2026

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The Aussie dollar is back in the seventies for now, with a weaker US dollar, while the only answer the US President seems to have for the Iran situation is more military action. Could this challenge the downward trend in inflation? US PPI overnight was weaker than expected, adding to the softer CPI numbers the day before. Meanwhile, a slowdown in China’s growth, although there were some positive signs for the domestic economy. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss all of this, plus the Bank of Canada decision overnight. They look ahead to US retail sales and UK GDP later on and explain why the pound is one of the strongest upward currency moves this morning.

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