Friday 31st January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The ECB cut rates as expected but, in line with other central banks lately, prefers not to map out their expectations for further cuts. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the market is fairly certain that more cuts will follow. Meanwhile, NAB has brought forward the timing of the next RBA cut - now expected in February.   Ken explains why the bank has changed its tune. There’s also talk about the response to yesterday’s Fed meeting and tech earnings, why gold is so strong and why the Yen has been the biggest currency mover this morning.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

What do the Fed, the Riksbank and the Bank of Canada all have in common? Well, they all just made rate policy announcements, but they have all refused to provide forward guidance, or even determine where inflation is heading. JB Were’s Sally Auld says there’s a lot more uncertainty beyond domestic fundamentals, US trade policy being a significant part of that. The Fed, for example, removed the statement from last time about continued disinflationary progress. It’s been a significant session, with the Fed followed by earnings from big tech players, including Microsoft, Meta and Tesla. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

US tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today.  Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a convincing story to tell as they announce earnings results later this week. Meanwhile the US dollar has gained some ground on speculation that US tariffs will start low, but increase steadily from month to month, but it remains a confusing picture with talk of greater tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Taiwanese chip components and Colombia. Today the focus will be on Aussie CPI and the rate announcements from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Riksbank.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

US investors are reassessing the value of US AI related stocks on the realisation that China might have found a solution that can learn faster, at a lower cost, with less energy needs-and is available for all to share and use. If it lives up to the hyped it is a full-on assault on the concept of American exceptionalism led by AI and tech. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, President Trump has to respond, given the support he has been receiving from tech billionaires in the run up to the election, and since. The market response has beena move to bonds, and a rise in safe heaven currencies, like the Yen.  It provides a lively start to a week that includes a number of tech earning’s results (and calls), alongside the fed and ECB meetings.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th January 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by data access. But even that faces pressures, as people’s data demands increase at a faster rate than their willingness to pay.

Luke Coleman, the newly appointed CEO of the industry body The Communications Alliance describes to Phil how telcos are changing. The major online providers, like Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, need an increasing amount of resilient, reliable data storage and processing power. Telcos have an increasing role in providing these centres, or, at the very least, the high speed fibre connections between these centres. As Luke explains, it’s growing, it has to stay on-shore, and continues to provide an opportunity for Australian investors.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Strickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on exports into America. He also asked OPEC to reduce oil prices, which did lower prices for a short while, but didn’t hold. There’s also discussion about the Norgesbank on the podcast today, who find themselves in a very similar position to the RBA, and the global PMIs today, possibly reinforcing the case of America exceptionalism.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

There weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularly tariffs. It seems a review of trade will be completed on April 1st, so we could face several months of speculation before details firm up, meanwhile tech stocks have done well, in part because of strong earnings, such as Netflix after the close yesterday, as well as Trump’s proposed AI Masterplan. It’s second tier data today and tomorrow night, including Canadian retail sales and the US weekly jobless claims numbers.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

It’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market response, which has assumed, ultimately, there will be a less radical approach to trade, with tariffs used as a leverage for a better trade balance. For Europe, for example, that could mean buying more energy and defence. On his counter to inflation, through a program of ‘drill baby drill’ Gavin doubts the US oil and gas industry will be that keen on upping production and seeing prices lowered.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Donald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the inauguration the Wall Street Journal published a suggestion that tariffs might not be implemented from day one. That doesn’t mean they are off the agenda, however. The new President talked of an External Revenue Service that will collect “massive amount of money” from foreign countries as part of an overhaul of the trade system, that will see consumers paying less tax on goods, instead the cost will be incurred by foreign companies through tariffs and taxes. Taylor and Phil talk through some of the other plans and schemes that the new President intends to enact.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th January 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

US markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the US dollar to a social media comment from Trump that a call with President Xi had gone well. There’s also been speculation in the Wall Street Journal about how China will respond to hefty tariffs, if imposed. If the response is to oversee the weakening of the Chinese currency, what impact will that have on the Aussie?

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.