NAB Morning Call

Friday 7th August 2026

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Fighting has kicked off again in the Middle East, this time the Houthis attacking Saudi supported territory in Yemen, with a significant loss of life. Could this open up the troubles on another front, drawing Saudi Arabia further into the conflict. Meanwhile, a deal on the reopening the Strait still hasn’t happened. The net effect oil is back on the rise, and the Aussie dollar has lost ground. What happens next will be a focus today, along with labour market data for the US and Canada. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton there has been a series of data suggesting strength in the labour market – for example, last night’s weekly jobless claims fell below 200k (for the 4-week average) for the first time since October 2022.

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Thursday 6th August 2026

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Everything's on hold it seems. There have been no big moves in oil prices because, as NAB’s ray Attrill explains, there’s still no definitive news on the strait, although an interim agreement between Oman and Iran has been drafted, but will still need US approval. Shares have lost their momentum, although the S&P has squeaked ahead to a new high. SpaceX took a hit as investors responded unfavourably to spending plans. US ISM data was strong, but not as compelling as the upward revisions in European PMI data. Today, Australia trade data is out with another monthly deficit expected, but basically everyone is holding out for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls and a finalised agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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Wednesday 5th August 2026

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The dictionary definition of ‘otherwordly’ is something not from this world, and therefore, not real. Which is probably not what the Palantir CEO meant when he used it to describe their stellar earnings result, which saw their shares skyrocket. Let’s hope peace talks for the Gulf are real, with Scott Bessent saying he expects a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could happen as soon as today. And oil prices responded. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this latest bout of optimism which has also seen bond yields fall and the Aussie dollar rise. They also look at yesterday’s strong Australian household spending data.

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Tuesday 4th August 2026

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President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will open as soon as tomorrow. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Sally Auld that means markets only have to wait 24 hours to be disappointed, but the net reaction has been a sharp fall in oil prices and rises in shares. Sally also talks about how the joint currency action on the Yen between the US and Japan marks a new era where allies work together on financial outcomes. In the US a strong ISM report signalled continued strength for the US economy, whilst in Australia we saw house prices fall again and await household spending data today.

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Monday 3rd August 2026

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There were strong moves in the Yen on Friday, for the second day in a row, with the US reportedly joining Japan in moves to shore up the currency. NAB’s Skye Masters says we can expect to hear more on that today, Meanwhile, no moves in the Gulf despite President Trump’s threat to unleash almighty military action. Gulf states convinced him to give peace one more try. With the Strait still largely closed to traffic it makes this morning’s announcement from OPEC+, to increase production by 188k barrels a day, largely academic. And the focus at the backend of this week will be on non-farm payrolls in the US, whilst household spending is the major data release for Australia.

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Friday 31st July 2026

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The government wants one fifth of all the gas that’s extracted in Australia to stay in the country to serve domestic demand, and to sure up our energy security. That’s fair enough isn’t it? It makes little sense that we suffer a shortage of supply if, at the same time, we are exporting large amounts of LNG. Josh Stabler, managing director of Energy Edge, who knows the gas markets well, says it’s not the principle that the industry is objecting to, it’s the approach. Many see that a strict 20 percent of all supplies being foisted on the domestic market will bring prices down and question the viability of domestic supplies and investment in new fields. Josh says the viability of the Longford plant in Victoria is of particular concern. Hear the arguments in a debate that has many moving parts.

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Friday 31st July 2026

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As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discusses with Phil this morning, there is still a lot of market confusion following Kevn Warsh’s press conference yesterday. Are markets worried that inflation could rise and the Fed does little to stop it? Meanwhile US GDP came in softer than expected, but the reverse was the case in Europe. Whilst in Japan the Yen rose, ahead of the BoJ meeting today. Presumably through some engineered currency intervention. And a record jump in Microsoft shares, because they beat on earnings and came below on capex spending, not many tech companies are doing that right now.

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Thursday 30th July 2026

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Kevin Warsh reiterated that the market needs to make its own decision on where the economy is headed. Not follow the Fed’s guidance. At the same time, he said they will consider the markets moves when determining monetary policy. So, who is following who? NAB’s Gavin Friend says the press conference left markets confused. Chip stocks continued to take a battering head of earnings results for Microsoft and Alpha shortly. Oil prices rise as military actions picks up again in the Middle East, with Trump quoted (on Fox News) as saying Iran will “take a beating”. And today the focus is on European and US GDP, and US income and spending data, plus core PCE and, for the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold. That’s enough for one day, surely!

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Wednesday 29th July 2026

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Markets are torn between optimism in the Gulf against fears over valuations of tech. Chipmakers have seen further sizeable falls in their shares, whilst oil is also well down. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the two, which have seen investors lean more to the positive outcomes from lower oil prices, for now. On the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Oman has suggested it is jointly managed with Iran with the payment of voluntary fees, however that would work! The take-outs from Michelle Bullocks speech yesterday are also discussed, plus Australian CPI numbers ae out today and a look ahead to the Fed, overnight tonight.

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Tuesday 28th July 2026

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US tech stocks have taken a hit again for the third straight session, with chipmakers joining software companies in the slide. Other stocks though have been buoyed by the lull in fighting in the Middle East, with three quieter nights as the US ’gives room’ for diplomacy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about how this respite has helped oil lower and driven down bond yields and inflation expectations. It’s a generally quiet day ahead before the week gets busy with central bank decisions and earnings reports.

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