NAB Morning Call

Friday 28th August 2026

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This week Phil speaks with Edward Sterck, Director of Research at the World Platinum Investment Council, to explore whether platinum is emerging as a higher-torque alternative to gold in the precious metals complex. Sterck explains how sustained market deficits—driven by severe geological supply constraints and deep-level underground mining limitations—initially catalyzed platinum's price rally before broader macro trends like US dollar debasement and geopolitical tensions began driving its movements alongside gold and silver. The conversation highlights platinum’s unique position, contrasting gold's monetary status with platinum's vital industrial demand in green hydrogen technologies, emissions reduction, and expanding applications in AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing. With global mine supply heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia and facing structural headwinds that prevent quick production scalings, he highlights why platinum offers higher upside leverage (a 1.3 beta to gold) and why supply deficits are projected to persist well into the next decade.

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Friday 28th August 2026

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NAB has made the call that they expect the RBA to lift rates in September. Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a hike. Expectations rose after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through NAB’s reasoning, as well as yesterday’s Capex numbers and upside surprise in household spending. They also discuss the rise in equities following yesterday’s NVIDIA earnings, oil rising against tensions in the Gulf and Ukraine, and rising hawkishness from the Fed alongside the Jackson Hole Symposium, ahead of Kevin Warsh speaking tonight. And a cause for celebration tomorrow!

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Thursday 27th August 2026

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Wherever you look inflation is not coming down as quickly as hoped or expected. NAB’s Sally Auld identifies why yesterday’s Australian CPI numbers were such a surprise, and why it’s heightened expectations for a rate hike. That’s pushed front end yields higher, which has boosted the Aussie dollar, even against a rising US dollar. The RBA may not be alone. US Core PCE numbers showed inflation is persistent there too, and the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel was sounding particularly hawkish as well yesterday. Soon, NVIDIA earnings are out, the bellwether stock for AI. Their shares are down ahead of the close.

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Wednesday 26th August 2026

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Oil prices fell sharply overnight, driving front-end bond yields lower and boosting shares. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what’s changed? There are reports that more oil is being shipped from Iraq, possibly with support being offered Iran, but the Achille’s heal of Operation Economic Rescue is how can you go hard on Iran’s trading partners without upsetting China and kicking off another trade war. The trade war with Canada meanwhile continues to ratchet up, whilst economic data from the US was largely bad, including a very disappointing consumer sentiment survey which suggests the future is less bright. Today the monthly CPI read is the key data point locally.

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Tuesday 25th August 2026

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This morning NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss Scott Bessent’s plan to isolate Iran economically and how it could impact China. There’s also been market reaction to Bessent’s plan to fund some of his bond buybacks by drawing down surplus funds from the Treasury account at the Fed. The threat of a 50 percent tariff on car exports from Canada is the latest iteration from the ongoing trade war, but it won’t be imposed till well after the mid-terms. Today is quiet data wise, giving you more time to read the RBA minutes!

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Monday 24th August 2026

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could dominate finance news this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss his two bg challenges. First, will we get more of the Treasury Twist -selling long date bonds to bring down yields? More immediately, what’s the plan to impose the massive economic sanctions on Iran that President Trump is promising, and will that mean fresh tariffs on China? A slice of Canada’s exports are now tariffed at 50% as trade talks with the US broke down on Friday. And they talk through the week ahead, which will be a busy one for Australian data.

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Friday 14th August 2026

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With the UK and Europe facing an unprecedented mix of geopolitical, environmental, and fiscal strains, is the region still a safe bet for global investors? On this weekend's episode of the NAB Morning Call, Phil sits down with Panmure Liberum Chief Economist Simon French to unpack the escalating pressures of lingering war, crippling European droughts, and skyrocketing debt. As standard UK inflation holds well above target and 10-year gilt yields hit multi-decade highs, can Prime Minister Andy Burnham deliver on ambitious spending promises around defence, social care, and tax relief without terrifying the bond market? Will a turn toward "buy British" public procurement and North Sea energy approvals offer a genuine structural bridge, or are protectionist measures bound to drag down broader growth? And as extreme weather threatens European food supplies while the US Treasury aggressively intervenes in currency markets, is Europe offering a clever valuation hedge against Wall Street—or simply a slower path through the storm?

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Friday 21st August 2026

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing harder on bringing bond yields down, saying he needs to ensure ‘more orderly trading’. That is taken to mean even more buybacks, with a plan expected today or Monday on the scale and shape of it. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss how the market is taking to it. Oil traders meanwhile have pushed prices higher as the US President promises economic warfare against any country trading with Iran, with China presumably the main focus, but no details yet beyond a social post. Gavin also discusses with Phil yesterday’s softer than expected Australian employment numbers, and they look ahead to today, including the flash PMIs for Europe and the US.

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Thursday 20th August 2026

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The US has announced plans to buyback a greater volume of longer dated bonds. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this is a fairly standard operation that has been used to manage liquidity, but this time it’s to be used on a larger scale with the aim of reducing longer dated yields. There has been a swift response, including a sizeable fall in the US dollar. Meanwhile Moderna shares have spiked as their melanoma treatment passes a significant milestone, and Alphabet raised AU$5.5 billion yesterday, in Australia’s biggest ever corporate issuance. With Australian wages and labour market data, plus UK CPI, Phil and Taylor have plenty to talk about.

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Wednesday 19th August 2026

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Whilst the middle East has been a preoccupation for many of late, the growing concern now shifts to bond yields, which have been steadily rising, with 30-year yields in the US breaking a multi decade high again. Phil puts it to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril that this is not just inflation concerns, given real yields are also rising. Rodrigo talks through the other market concerns, including concerns about governments’ ongoing fiscal commitments. This is getting passed on to equity markets the last few sessions because the rising cost of borrowing will hit those big-tech firms with big borrowing commitments. They a also look at UK data, words from the ECB and look ahead to today’s wages data for Australia. What’s the sweet spot we should be looking for?

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