Thursday 25th June 2026

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Oil prices are tumbling, with Brent crude hitting a fresh low near $73 a barrel,, taking significant pressure off global inflation hedges and pushing 10 year Treasury yields down 9 basis points. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld look at how this commodity slide is reshaping central bank expectations, highlighted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Squawk Box interview where he likened the current tech-driven productivity wave to Alan Greenspan’s 1997 "one tap on the brakes" template, suggesting the Fed may only need one more rate hike, together with his dislike of the Fed's dot plot altogether. Closer to home, attention wraps firmly around yesterday’s Australian CPI print, which cooled on the headline thanks to falling pump prices; however, Sally flags that a peek under the hood reveals a stickier story, with trimmed-mean inflation tracking at 3.6% as local homebuilders and restaurants pass mounting material and input costs on to consumers. Aussie employment data will be watched keenly to see whether last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was a one-off, but isn’t expected to change the RBA’s outlook for interest rates. On that, ‘they’re done’ says Sally.

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