Is Ukraine winning the war against Russia? An Infopod by Tale Teller Club Publishing
No, Ukraine is not winning outright, but neither is Russia achieving its objectives. The war remains a brutal, high-cost stalemate as of late June 2026, with Russia making very slow territorial gains at enormous expense while Ukraine demonstrates resilience through defensive successes, counteractions, and deep strikes.Â
Territorial Situation
Russia controls roughly 20% of Ukraine (including pre-2022 holdings in Crimea and parts of Donbas), with minimal net changes recently.Â
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In 2025, Russia gained ~4,000–5,000 sq km, mostly in the east (e.g., around Pokrovsk).
In 2026 so far, gains have slowed dramatically: Russian forces advanced or infiltrated only ~40 sq km from Dec 2025–May 2026 in some assessments, while suffering net losses in controlled territory due to Ukrainian counteractions.Â
Ukrainian forces have retaken settlements and hundreds of sq km in places (e.g., Oleksandrivka direction), halted much of Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive, and conducted incursions into Russian territory (e.g., Kursk).Â
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Russia claims advances toward key spots like Kostyantynivka in Donetsk, but these remain limited infiltrations rather than consolidated control. Ukraine's "fortress belt" in the Donbas continues to slow Russian momentum.Â
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Military and Human Costs
This is primarily a grinding war of attrition:Russian losses: Estimates of ~1.2 million total casualties (killed, wounded, missing) since 2022, with ~500,000 killed per some Western/GCHQ assessments. Daily rates remain high (~1,000 per day in periods). Equipment losses are massive (thousands of tanks, etc.).Â
Ukrainian losses: Substantial but lower ratio (~500k–600k casualties estimated through late 2025, with ongoing toll). Manpower shortages are a concern for both.Â
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Russia's advances average tens of meters per day in hotspots—extremely costly and slow by historical standards. Drones, artillery, and electronic warfare dominate, favoring defense and making large breakthroughs rare for either side.Â
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Other FactorsÂ
Ukraine's strengths: Effective long-range drone/missile strikes on Russian logistics, oil infrastructure, Crimea, and rear areas. These disrupt supplies and impose economic costs. Ukraine has stabilized parts of the front and regained territory in 2026.Â
Russia's strengths: Superior manpower (via recruitment, convicts, North Korean aid earlier), artillery/drone production, and willingness to absorb losses. It occupies ~20% of Ukraine and continues pressure in the east.Â
Broader context: Western aid (~$188B US, ~$197B EU) sustains Ukraine but faces political/fatigue issues. Russia's economy is strained by war spending but adapted. Putin shows no sign of compromising core goals (e.g., control of Donbas, neutralizing Ukraine's NATO path).Â
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Overall AssessmentUkraine is not winning if "winning" means decisively expelling Russian forces or restoring 1991/2014 borders soon—Russia's occupation and attrition strategy prevent that without major shifts (e.g., escalated Western support or Russian collapse). However, Russia is also not winning: Its 2026 offensive underperformed prior years, Ukraine is hitting deep targets effectively, and the human/economic costs are unsustainable long-term for Moscow's maximalist aims.Â
The conflict is in a dynamic equilibrium where Ukraine has improved its position relative to 2024–2025 lows through adaptation and strikes, but exhaustion, politics, and demographics loom. Diplomatic signals (e.g., mutual strike halts) exist, but incompatible goals make a clean resolution unlikely soon. The outcome will depend on endurance, aid, technology, and will—none of which point to a clear victor today.
Are there any similar situations from WWII
Yes, there are partial parallels to WWII, though the Ukraine-Russia war is more frequently compared to World War I due to its positional, attritional nature. WWII featured more fluid maneuver warfare (especially early on) mixed with brutal sieges and grinding campaigns. Here are the closest analogies, based on battlefield dynamics, costs, and strategic situations.Â
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Normandy Hedgerows (Bocage) Campaign, 1944 (Strongest Tactical Parallel)After D-Day, Allied forces (mainly US) faced a grinding stalemate in Normandy's dense hedgerows against prepared German defenses. Advances were extremely slow and costly:US forces took ~6 weeks to push just ~19 miles (30 km) inland toward Saint-LĂ´, with daily incremental gains amid heavy casualties.
Similar to Ukraine: Small-unit assaults, high losses for limited territory, challenges with armor in constrained terrain, and reliance on attrition to wear down the defender before a breakout (Operation Cobra).
In Ukraine, Russian advances often average 15–70 meters per day in hotspots (e.g., around Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar), slower than even the Somme in some metrics but akin to Normandy's bocage fighting. Drones and precision fires in Ukraine act like WWII artillery/airpower in restricting movement.Â
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This shows how prepared defenses + difficult terrain/technology can turn a campaign into slow attrition, even for a superior force. The Allies eventually broke out through mass, innovation (e.g., hedge-cutting tanks), and air superiority—factors Ukraine is pursuing with strikes and Western aid.Â
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Eastern Front (1941–1945) – Scale and Attrition, But Different DynamicsThe German-Soviet war on the Eastern Front offers the largest-scale parallel (millions of casualties, vast territory, ideological stakes), and Ukraine is literally fought over much of the same ground (e.g., Donbas, Kharkiv regions).Early German advances (1941 Barbarossa): Rapid initial gains followed by overextension and failure to achieve quick victory—echoing Russia's 2022 Kyiv push and shift to the east.
Sieges and grinding battles: Leningrad (nearly 900 days), Stalingrad, and urban fights like in Ukraine (e.g., Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiivka). Cities become fortresses where isolation and logistics matter hugely.
Attrition: Enormous casualties (Soviet side bore the brunt, with 20+ million total deaths). Soviets eventually shifted to superior mass, reserves, and deep operations to push back.Key differences: WWII Eastern Front saw massive maneuver phases (e.g., German blitzkrieg, Soviet Bagration offensive in 1944) with tank armies covering hundreds of km. Ukraine's war is far more static/positional due to drones, precision munitions, satellites, and dense minefields/fortifications—more "WWI on steroids" than classic WWII maneuver. Russia's current style resembles late-war German or Soviet positional offensives more than early blitzkrieg.Â
Russia's Ukraine campaign has already lasted longer than its entire WWII fight against Nazi Germany (1941–1945), with ~1.2 million Russian casualties (far below WWII Soviet totals but the highest for any major power since 1945).Â
Other WWII EchoesÂ
Battle of the Somme (WWI, but often referenced alongside WWII attrition): Used for Ukraine's slow pace, but Normandy is a better WWII fit.
Urban/fortified fighting: Aachen (1944), Manila, or Berlin—high costs to clear defended cities, similar to Ukraine's eastern towns.
Strategic overreach: Hitler's insistence on holding gains despite costs parallels some critiques of Putin's approach.
Why the Comparisons Are Imperfect
Technology: WWII lacked cheap mass drones, real-time ISR, and widespread precision strikes that favor defense and make breakthroughs rarer today.
Scale: WWII involved continental armies with millions in maneuver; Ukraine is a high-intensity but more contained front with ~thousands of daily engagements.
Politics: No equivalent to the total mobilization or unconditional surrender demands of WWII Allies vs. Axis.In summary, the Normandy bocage best captures the current slow, costly grinding in Ukraine, while the Eastern Front provides broader historical and geographic resonance.Â
Wars evolve: Ukraine's defenders (like the Allies/Soviets) are betting that sustained attrition, innovation, and external support will eventually shift momentum, as happened in WWII. However, prolonged stalemates risk exhaustion for both sides. These historical lessons underscore that "winning" often comes from endurance and adaptation rather than quick decisive battles.
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