Politics Central

With much of the American economy in self-imposed shutdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus, April's colossal surge in unemployment delivered a historic blow to workers.
The US economy lost 20.5 million jobs in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday — by far the most sudden and largest decline since the government began tracking the data in 1939.
Those losses follow steep cutbacks in March as well, when employers slashed 870,000 jobs. Those two months amount to layoffs so severe, they more than double the 8.7 million jobs lost during the financial crisis.
For many Americans who lost their jobs and their homes in the 2008 financial crisis, this moment reopens old wounds. It took years to rebound from those setbacks. When the economy eventually did crawl back, US employers added 22.8 million jobs over 10 years — a victory for all those who had weathered the Great Recession.
Now, the coronavirus pandemic stings not only because of the public health crisis it has inflicted — but also because it wiped out nearly that whole decade of job gains in just two months.
The unemployment rate soared to 14.7% in April, its highest level since the BLS started recording the monthly rate in 1948. The last time American joblessness was that severe was the Great Depression: The unemployment rate peaked at 24.9% in 1933, according to historical annual estimates from the BLS.
By all accounts, it's been a devastating two months for American workers.
"Each unemployed person is a person whose life is now in turmoil," White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett told CNN's Poppy Harlow, describing the report as "heartbreaking."
How we got here
In late March, state and local governments enacted stay-at-home orders to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Businesses suddenly closed en masse, laying off or furloughing millions of workers.
The government's jobs report shows some of the steepest job losses in leisure and hospitality, which lost 7.7 million jobs, and retail, which lost 2.1 million jobs.
Even as hospitals struggled to serve an influx in patients, health care workers suffered layoffs, too, with outpatient services like physicians and dentists' offices cutting 1.2 million jobs in April.
Food and beverage stores, which have also been essential during the crisis, lost 42,000 jobs.
And as terrible as those numbers are, they don't tell the full story.
The jobs numbers come from a survey of employers, and do not include independent contractors like Uber and Lyft drivers in the gig economy.
Likewise, the unemployment rate, which comes from a survey of households, probably undercounts the number of jobless Americans, too.
People are only counted as "unemployed" by the BLS when they have been out of work but actively searched for a new job in the prior four weeks. Or, if they were a "temporary layoff" with the expectation of being rehired within six months.
Among the 23 million people who were counted as unemployed in April, about 18 million were "on temporary layoff." While that's a stark number, it could be an encouraging sign that for many people, job losses could be short lived — and they'll be able to return to work when businesses re-open.
That said, millions of other laid-off workers were not even included in the unemployment rate. With much of the country still under stay-at-home orders, many jobless workers weren't looking for new jobs in April. Instead of being counted as "unemployed," those people were categorized as having dropped out of the labor force. The employment-population ratio, which measures the share of the US population over age 16 with a job, shrank to 51.3% in April, down from 60% in March and its lowest level on record since the BLS started tracking that number in 1948.
Economists expect many people will be able to find work again as businesses gradually reopen, but it could take months or even years for the job...

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The Government is under fire, for its handling of the release of hundreds of official Covid 19 documents.
The documents were proactively released late on Friday afternoon.
A leaked email, obtained by Newstalk ZB, shows ministers were told not to do media interviews on the contents of the documents.
Political reporter Jason Walls told The Weekend Collective the approach doesn't fit the Government's kind and transparent brand.
"For there to be a memo saying basically, 'New Zealanders think we're doing great, we don't have to be as transparent and front up with ministers on this', a lot of people would have the right to be completely disappointed in that."

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National says the economy has to be a factor, in any decision on when to move New Zealand out of Alert Level Two.
Cabinet will decide tomorrow whether New Zealand will transition to Alert Level Two later in the week.
New Zealand has recorded another two more cases of Covid 19 since yesterday, and two more people remain in hospital.
National finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith told The Weekend Collective cabinet needs to be cautious - but it can't be too conservative.
"You've got to focus on making sure that we've got contact tracing, so if there is a bounce back, we can move fast.
"But if you're ultra-conservative about it and go very slowly, then every passing week has a real impact on livelihoods and jobs and wellbeing."

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Popular tourism towns are disappointed in the potential rules for Alert Level 2.
The Government announced last week that safely reconnecting families and communities was a "social and economic necessity" but re-iterated people should still avoid non-essential travel during level 2.
Queenstown Lakes Mayor Jim Boult told The Weekend Collective getting domestic travel back up and running is a priority for many towns who rely on tourism.
"We're making submissions to Government to have social distancing laws in relation to travel restricted so we can get a decent level of domestic business back into the town."

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Six months from Election Day, President Donald Trump's prospects for winning a second term have been jolted by a historic pandemic and a cratering economy, rattling some of his Republican allies and upending the playbook his campaign had hoped to be using by now against Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump's standing has slumped as the nation's focus on him has intensified during the coronavirus outbreak, revealing an erratic and often self-absorbed approach to the crisis. The result: He's losing ground in some battleground states with key constituencies, including senior citizens and college-educated men — all without his Democratic challenger having devoted much energy or money to denting the president.
"It's Donald J. Trump versus the coronavirus and the recovery," said Scott Reed, the senior political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Biden is a sideshow."
For some Republicans, the prospect of an election that is almost wholly a referendum on Trump is unnerving. Though the president's base remains loyal, a significant portion of GOP voters view him skeptically on a range of personal qualities. He pulled many of those voters to his side in the 2016 election by drawing an aggressive contrast with Democrat Hillary Clinton. He planned to do the same in 2020 with Biden, with the added tailwind of a surging American economy.
Now, that economy is crumbling around Trump. A staggering 30 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past six weeks as businesses have shuttered due to stay-at-home restrictions aimed at containing the pandemic. One of the president's own economic advisers predicted nationwide unemployment could reach 20% by June.
When his back is against the wall, Trump often responds by lashing out at a political opponent, hoping to expose flaws that detract from his own. But with Americans consumed by the pandemic and economic uncertainty, Republicans close to the president and his campaign say Trump's team will struggle to break through with any attacks on Biden for some time. Instead, the public's focus remains squarely on Trump and his handling of the health and economic crises.
"Trump is completely dominating the public's attention, and it's not helping him," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who advised Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign.
In public polling, the president's approval rating hasn't dropped significantly since the fast-moving virus swept through parts of the U.S. According to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted in late April, 42% of Americans approved of Trump's job performance. That's about where it's been for the past few months.
But both Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists say they are seeing signs of weakness in critical states and demographic groups. Those findings are confirmed by some of the Trump campaign's own data. When briefed on campaign polling in recent days, Trump erupted in anger, according to several people with knowledge of the conversation.
Private polling shows Trump in a weaker position in several pivotal states, including Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin. He's also sagging with senior citizens and college-educated men, according to GOP operatives who have viewed recent polling. Some pollsters said they've seen signs that lower-educated women are also drifting away from the president.
Independents are largely irrelevant, the operatives said, but only because they had already abandoned the president before the pandemic. A half-dozen operatives and pollsters spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss private data.
Trump's campaign argues the dynamic will reset after the president and his team can unleash a full array of attacks on Biden, who became the presumptive Democratic nominee just as the pandemic began bearing down on the United States. Trump campaign aides say they see vulnerabilities in Biden's previous dealings with China...

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People will still be able to appeal against infrastructure projects but they'll have less time to do so.
The Government's making changes to the Resource Management Act to speed up the consent process.
The changes, which are likely to be passed in June, means roading, walking, cycling, rail, and housing projects can be approved faster.
A panel - headed by an Environment Court judge - will approve consents for housing, transport and environmental projects, instead of councils.
Environment Minister David Parker says it will hear submissions from business, infrastructure and environmental groups.
"The processes that include public participation and appeal rights to the Environment Court are being truncated."
Parker says getting people back to work is the main reason resource consents are being sped up.
"The environmental protections and obligations to comply with regional plans will still apply. It is just that the consent process where people need a consent will run faster."

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National Party leader Simon Bridges is still defending his controversial Facebook post.
Bridges was forced to defend himself after facing a flurry of online fury over the post about the Government's decision to extend the level 4 lockdown.
The Facebook post has attracted more than 16,000 reactions – many of them negative - and the Opposition leader has been facing speculation from some in the media that his job might be on the line.
Other members of his party defended his leadership, but many commentators have since doubled down on their criticism of his leadership.
Talking to The Weekend Collective, Bridges repeated his mantra that he makes no excuses and would repeat his comments.
He says that the anger from people could be due to some people being hit harder by the pandemic than others.
"There's a couple kinds of people in New Zealand at the moment. There are those us with a job and are getting paid and at home," Bridges said, quoting Mike Hosking in saying that these people are "baking banana bread". 
"There's another group where people are suffering. It could be because their business is going under or they know that their job is gone or in jeopardy." 
Asked if he thinks his comments seem that he is not rowing in the same direction as New Zealanders, Bridges says he congratulates the Government and New Zealanders on the job done so far.
“We’ve flattened the curve, but I’m focused on what’s coming.”
He confirmed that there were two statements prepared; one about the extension, which was what was published, and a second if we had moved straight to level three.
Bridges says that the second one would have been “less strong”.

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Rumours are intensifying about Kim Jong-un's condition as a Chinese team including health care experts is dispatched into North Korea to treat him, Reuters reports.
The trip by Chinese doctors and officials to Pyongyang comes after reports the North Korean leader was in a critical condition after cardiovascular surgery.
A delegation including the medical staff and led by a senior member of the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department left Beijing for North Korea on Thursday.
Earlier in the week, South Korean news site Daily NK reported Kim was recovering after undergoing a cardiovascular procedure on April 12.
US officials said they were told Kim's condition was critical after the surgery, although President Donald Trump has since cast doubt on the report.
Seoul officials and a source within the Liaison Department have challenged reports Kim was gravely ill.
Speculation about Kim's condition has escalated in the two weeks since he was last seen in public, at a politburo meeting on April 11.
On April 15, he was conspicuous in his absence from birthday celebrations of the founder of the North Korean state, his grandfather and state founder Kim Il Sung.
Kim has been out of the public eye for extended periods in the past, and North Korea's secretive nature allows few outsiders to assert confidently whether he might be unwell, let alone incapacitated. Still, questions about the North's political future are likely to grow if he fails to attend upcoming public events.
Kim is the third generation of his family to rule North Korea, and a strong personality cult has been built around him, his father and grandfather. The family's mythical "Paektu" bloodline, named after the highest peak on the Korean Peninsula, is said to give only direct family members the right to rule the nation.
That makes Kim's younger sister, senior ruling party official Kim Yo Jong, the most likely candidate to step in if her brother is gravely ill, incapacitated or dies. But some experts say a collective leadership, which could end the family's dynastic rule, could also be possible.
"Among the North's power elite, Kim Yo Jong has the highest chance to inherit power, and I think that possibility is more than 90 per cent," said analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea.
"North Korea is like a dynasty, and we can view the Paektu descent as royal blood so it's unlikely for anyone to raise any issue over Kim Yo Jong taking power."
Believed to be in her early 30s, Kim Yo Jong is in charge of North Korea's propaganda affairs, and earlier this month was made an alternate member of the powerful Politburo.
She has frequently appeared with her brother at public activities, standing out among elderly male officials. She accompanied Kim Jong Un on his high-stakes summits with President Donald Trump and other world leaders. Her proximity to him during those summits led many outsiders to believe she's essentially North Korea's No. 2 official.
"I think the basic assumption would be that maybe it would be someone in the family" to replace Kim Jong Un, US national security adviser Robert O'Brien told reporters this week.
"But again, it's too early to talk about that because we just don't know, you know, what condition Chairman Kim is in and we'll have to see how it plays out."
The fact North Korea is an extremely patriarchal society has led some to wonder if Kim Yo Jong would only serve as a temporary figurehead and then be replaced by a collective leadership similar to ones established after the deaths of other Communist dictators.
"North Korean politics and the three hereditary power transfers have been male-centred. I wonder whether she can really overcome bloody socialist power struggles and exercise her power," said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University in South Korea.
A collective leadership would likely be headed by...

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The idea of a trans-Tasman bubble is gaining momentum -- but it's unlikely it'll happen anytime soon.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has hinted travel to Australia for business could start more quickly that we think.
Peters says he's open to starting on a state-by-state basis.
But, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says while an arrangement could happen in future, Kiwis shouldn't expect to be freely travelling back and forth to Australia yet.
Epidemiologist, Professor Michael Baker told the Weekend Collective it's something to look forward to but it's some distance off.
"Really it's going to be weeks before we can really have a serious discussion about opening our borders with anyone."

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Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters says there is "no value" in trying to save people who have coronavirus if it means greater social damage is caused.
We need to save our economy as fast as we can before further damage is caused, Peters told Newstalk ZB's The Weekend Collective.
The decision on whether New Zealand will move down to alert level 3 will be announced at 4pm today.
"The secret is that we keep a sense of balance," Peters said.
"In other words it would be of no value if we save a lot of Covid people in our approach - and yet during it we've got all sorts of things like depression, suicide, breakdowns and a whole lot of other social things having far greater social damage.
"In the end the only thing that's going to save lives, isn't just medical expertise - but an economy that's capable of providing the utilities to face the crisis."
He also hit back at those who say alert level 3 isn't much different to level 4.
Recently National's Judith Collins said level 3 is just like level 4 but with KFC.
Peters said level 3 has changed since the alert level system was introduced 30 days ago, arguing we know more now from watching the pandemic unfold both domestically and internationally.
He said level 3 means 500,000 more people can go back to work.
"It's sad people have to get political in times like this," he said.
"If you can't help then get out of the way of people who are trying to help".
There were nine new confirmed or probable cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand announced on Sunday, taking the total of confirmed and probable cases to 1431.
There was one new death since Saturday, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield announced at the 1pm Government update.
The death brings the total toll to 12 and was of a man who died in his Invercargill homeand who was linked to the Bluff wedding cluster. It is the first coronavirus death in the community.
The man, aged in his 70s, died in his Kingswell home on Tuesday evening. The Bluff wedding cluster has been connected to more than 90 cases, including the death of the groom's father.
Bloomfield said it was important to get a good understanding of the death so a post-mortem was ordered - leading to the delay in confirmation that it was Covid-related.
The new cases are made up of four confirmed cases and five probable cases.
They are all linked to confirmed cases.
Of the 1431 confirmed and probable cases in New Zealand, 912 people have recovered - an increase of 45 from Saturday.
There are 18 people in hospital, including one each in ICU at Middlemore, Dunedin and North Shore hospitals; two are in a critical condition.

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