Politics Central

Listen to the audio above as NZ Herald Business Editor at Large Liam Dann speaks to The Weekend Collective ahead of next Thursday's Budget announcement by Finance Minister Grant Robertson.

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Political commentator Ben Thomas joins The Weekend Collective to look back on the busy week of New Zealand politics.
From Trevor Mallard's announcement that a man who has committed what he calls "rape" three times in the parliamentary workplace is still working at Parliament, to next week's planned teachers strike taking place following yet another climate change protest, the political issues making news this week are all discussed.
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Listen to the audio above as Newstalk ZB British Correspondent Enda Brady speaks to The Weekend Collective on the latest news regarding Theresa May announcing her resignation as British Prime Minister and what this means for Brexit.
Theresa May became prime minister in 2016 with one overriding goal: to lead Britain out of the European Union.
Three years on, the U.K. is still in the EU, and May's time in 10 Downing St. is ending. She announced Friday that she will step down as Conservative leader on June 7, remaining as caretaker prime minister during a party leadership contest to choose her successor.
She will be remembered as the latest in a long line of Conservative leaders destroyed by the party's divisions over Europe, and as a prime minister who failed in her primary mission. But history may also see her as a leader who faced a devilishly difficult situation with stubborn determination.
The daughter of a rural Anglican vicar, May attended Oxford University and worked in financial services before being elected to Parliament in 1997.
She was quiet and diligent, but also ambitious. One university friend later recalled that May hoped to be Britain's first female prime minister, and "was quite irritated when Margaret Thatcher got there first."
She was not a natural political campaigner; her stiff public appearances as prime minister landed her the nickname "The Maybot." Her only touches of flamboyance are a fondness for bold outfits and accessories like brightly patterned kitten-heel shoes.
But she soon established a reputation for solid competence and a knack for vanquishing flashier rivals.
May served for six years in the notoriously thankless job of home secretary, responsible for borders, immigration and law and order. In 2016, she beat flashier and better-known politicians, including Brexit-backer Boris Johnson — now the favorite to succeed her — to become Britain's second female prime minister, after Margaret Thatcher.
May was the surprise winner of a Conservative leadership contest triggered when Prime Minister David Cameron stepped down after voters rejected his advice to remain in the EU, instead voting 52%-48% to leave.
In her first speech as prime minister in July 2016, May sketched out plans for an ambitious policy agenda. She spoke of giving the poor a helping hand and lifting barriers to social mobility.
But Brexit soon crowded out almost all other policies.
Like Cameron, May had campaigned to remain, but in office she became a champion of Brexit. "Brexit means Brexit" became her mantra — a meaningless one, said her detractors, as it emerged that undoing 45 years of ties with the bloc would be a fraught and complex process.
Attempting to win the support of Conservative Brexiteers suspicious of her past pro-EU leanings, May set out firm red lines in negotiations with the EU: Britain would leave the bloc's single market and customs union and end the right of EU citizens to live and work in the U.K.
For a time, May's resolve helped her unite the warring factions of her party, which for decades has been divided over policy toward Europe.
But she then gambled on a snap election in June 2017, in an attempt to bolster her slim majority in Parliament and strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations with the EU.
The move backfired. May ran a lackluster campaign on a platform that included plans to cut benefits to pensioners and change the way they pay for long-term care — quickly dubbed a "dementia tax." The Conservatives lost their majority, and May had to strike a deal with 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party to stay in power.
The DUP's support became a complication when the border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland emerged as a major issue in Brexit negotiations. The unionist party strongly opposed special measures to ensure the border remained free of customs posts and other barriers, worrying...

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The head of Women's Refuge says addressing the nation's violence issues won't come cheap.
The Government's sinking $320 million into tying to break the cycle of family and sexual violence.
The cash, which will be allocated in the upcoming Wellbeing Budget, will also be used for better support services for survivors.
It'll be spread across a range of initiatives and services.
It will be used for a range of initiatives, including improving support services for survivors.
Women's Refuge CEO Ang Jury told the Weekend Collective the money earmarked for prevention makes her optimistic.
"We've never invested as a country in prevention work before, and if we are ever going to make a difference, we're going to have to."
She says that none of the money is tagged specifically for her organisation, which is disappointing.
"At the same time I recognise that family and sexual violence is an absolute bloody scourge in this country."
Jury says it's going to be expensive to fix.

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Did Scott Morrison miraculously defy the polls, or were the polls just wrong?   
His Liberal coalition will be returned to government, a win which flies in the face of surveys giving Labor the edge heading into the election.
Sky News chief political reporter Kieran Gilbert told the Weekend Collective he agrees there needs to be a reset in the way pollsters gather data.
He says there also needs to be a reset in the credence we give them.
"I just think that this result should be a wake up call. I hope it is. I certainly will be taking that approach of giving a lot less weight to these fortnightly if not monthly surveys." 
He says that these polls should not be considered relevant outside of the election years. 
Morrison has credited the "quiet Australians" for coming out to support him, and Gilbert says that the opinion and internal polling did not pick up on this. 
However, the prediction that climate change would be a major point in the election proved correct. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his seat against a former Winter Olympian who ran on a purely climate change platform. 
Polls have also failed to predict the results of Brexit and the US election.

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One commentator says it is "disappointing" that neither Donald Trump or Marck Zuckerberg will attended this week's social media meeting in Paris. 
The summit, known as the Christchurch Call, was convened by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and French President Emmanuel Macron in the wake of the March 15 terror attack. 
Neither Facebook's CEO or COO Mark Zuckerberg or Sheryl Sandberg will attend, despite Zuckerberg speaking with Ardern after the mosque attacks. Instead,  global affairs head Nick Clegg, the former British deputy Prime Minister, will attend.
John Battersby from Massey University's Centre for Defence and Security Studies says that this is a good initiative, but told the Weekend Collective that there are clearly going to be a lot of issues that need to be addressed.
"It does seem to look like a very little step. There is a whole range of internet related issues around crime, around terrorism, around fraud that's happening in one country and victimising the issue."
He says that this may be too small of a step that has come too late, and no appearance from two of the bigger names involved will add to the issues.
One matter will be how you can enforce laws on multi-national companies that are active internationally.
However, Battersby says that the backlash against social media sites over their handling of the footage of the mosque attacks has already had an effect
Several extremist voices were banned from Facebook and the platforms they own last month. 
"They are perhaps starting to feel that they are going to get a little bit more scrutiny than they already are," Battersby says.

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The Government will spend $200 million on housing more than 1000 long-term homeless people in New Zealand.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described today's pre-Budget announcement as the single largest Government investment in tackling chronic homelessness.
"We are committed to tackling homelessness. That's why we have made it an investment priority for the second year in a row by boosting support for the internationally-acclaimed programme Housing First even further."
Housing First is a collective response to homelessness, offering people immediate access to housing.
Partners include Auckland City Mission, Link People, Comcare Trust, Te Taumata o, and Lifewise.
The $197 million has been allocated over four years.
It comes as part of the Government's first Wellbeing Budget.
"I cannot think of an announcement that really captures the idea of wellbeing more than [today's announcement]," Ardern said.
Auckland Mayor Phil Goff welcomed the Government's announcement of more funding.
"Homelessness is unacceptable in any society. There is a huge social cost and extra funding provided by Government means that we can do more to tackle and eliminate homelessness in Auckland."
Goff hoped a "significant amount" of the funding would come to Auckland, where there was the most need.
"Since launching Housing First, Auckland Council and a collective of five agencies have housed 922 people, including 436 children, who were homeless. This extra funding will mean we can provide more homes for those who need them the most."
Ardern said the programme recognised that most long-term homeless people had a number of complex problems such as mental health issues and addictions; and that they have a much higher chance of addressing them once they are housed.
The Government funds the programme in Auckland, Christchurch, Tauranga, Hamilton and Rotorua.
"Housing is a basic human right and allows people to love with dignity," the Prime Minister said.
She added that the Government was committed to tackling homelessness which is why it has made priority housing for homeless a priority.
"Budget 2019 is continuing to invest in Housing First and funding 1,044 new places. This will raise the number of people the programme can help to 2,700," Jacinda Ardern said.
Since 2017, the Housing First programme has housed 720 households, including 431 children, in Auckland.
"Homelessness is the sharp end of the housing crisis," Ardern said.
She added that the Government has made almost 1000 transitional housing places available since it started it first term in 2017.
She said the Government is "well on track" to provide 6400 more public housing places by 2022.
Although this is good progress, Twyford said the housing crisis was not going to be fixed overnight – "we still have work to do".

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The NZEI President says that education is a crisis, and a significant change is needed to change the industry. 
Primary and secondary teachers have rejected the latest deal from the Government and will hold a combined strike on May 29th, on the eve of the Government's 'Wellbeing Budget'. 
It will be the largest-ever industrial action by New Zealand teachers, covering almost 50,000 members across the two unions.
NZEI President Lynda Stuart says the union's members want the government to realise their resolve has remained strong and steady.
"The teaching profession is not going to give up because the issues of fair pay and sustainable working conditions are too important."
She told the Weekend Collective that their pay has not kept pace with where it needed to be. 
"If our teachers decided to go over the ditch to Australia, they would be getting 30,000 more a year," though she insists that is not the only matter. Stuart insists they want a package that will cover matters such a better support for those children who have additional learning needs.
"It's about a package that can attract and retain our teachers." 
Stuart believes that public support for teachers is at the same level this month as it was last year.
"Our parents and our communities see the reality of what life is like for teachers."

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Will a wedding help secure Jacinda Ardern a second term?
The Prime Minister confirmed her engagement to long-term partner Clarke Gayford on Friday, after she was spotted wearing an engagement ring. The two have become engaged over the Easter holidays, her office said.  
TVNZ's political editor Jessica Mutch-McKay told the Weekend Collective that, when the news was released, she felt a bit sorry for opposition leader Simon Bridges. 
"You just compete with an engagement announcement." 
She says that Bridges will likely have a "sinking feeling", but his political hopes may depend on when the wedding is held. 
"If she decides to get married in election year, that's going to be a major distraction."
Mutch-McKay says if it was her choice in that position, she would wait until leaving office, as it would put less obligation to include the media and the public.
She says that the post-Cabinet press conference tomorrow will reveal the first plans about the wedding.

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North Korean state media on Sunday showed leader Kim Jong Un observing live-fire drills of long-range multiple rocket launchers and what appeared to be a new short-range ballistic missile, a day after South Korea expressed concern that the launches were a violation of an inter-Korean agreement to cease all hostile acts.
Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency said Kim expressed "great satisfaction" over Saturday's drills and stressed that his front-line troops should keep a "high alert posture" and enhance combat ability to "defend the political sovereignty and economic self-sustenance of the country."
The weapons launches were a likely sign of Pyongyang's growing frustration at stalled diplomatic talks with Washington meant to provide coveted sanctions relief in return for nuclear disarmament. They also highlighted the fragility of the detente between the Koreas, which in a military agreement reached last September vowed to completely cease "all hostile acts" against each other in land, air and sea.
South Korea said it's "very concerned" about North Korea's weapons launches, calling them a violation of the agreements to reduce animosities between the countries. The statement, issued after an emergency meeting Saturday of top officials at the presidential Blue House in Seoul, also urged North Korea to stop committing acts that would raise military tensions and join efforts to resume nuclear diplomacy.
"Praising the People's Army for its excellent operation of modern large-caliber long-range multiple rocket launchers and tactical guided weapons, he said that all the service members are master gunners and they are capable of carrying out duty to promptly tackle any situation," the KNCA paraphrased Kim as saying.  "He stressed the need for all the service members to keep high alert posture and more dynamically wage the drive to increase the combat ability so as to defend the political sovereignty and economic self-sustenance of the country and ... the security of the people from the threats and invasion by any forces."
The North's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper published photos that showed Kim, equipped with binoculars, observing tests of different weapons systems, including multiple rocket launchers and what appeared to be a short-range missile fired from a launch vehicle, and also an explosion of what seemed to be a target set on island rocks.
Kim Dong-yub, an analyst from Seoul's Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said the North Korean missile appeared to be modeled after Russia's 9K720 Iskander mobile short-range ballistic missile system. The solid-fuel North Korean missile, which was first revealed in a Pyongyang military parade in February, is potentially capable of conducting nuclear strikes on all areas of South Korea, Kim said.
"The North tried to clearly demonstrate its abilities to strike any target on the Korean Peninsula, including U.S. troops stationed across the country in areas such as Seoul, Pyeongtaek, Daegu and Busan," Kim said.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said that "several projectiles" had been launched from near the coastal town of Wonsan and that they flew up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) before splashing into the sea toward the northeast. That roughly matched the distance between the area and the South Korean capital of Seoul, although the North in Sunday's report did not issue any direct threat or warning toward the South or the United States. Experts say the North may increase these sorts of low-level provocations to apply pressure on the United States to agree to reduce crushing international sanctions.
The launches comes amid a diplomatic breakdown that has followed the failed summit earlier this year between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un over the North's pursuit of nuclear bombs that can accurately target the U.S. mainland. The North probably has viable shorter-range nuclear armed missiles, but it still needs more tests to...

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