Politics Is Everything

What are the factors driving shifts in presidential voting patterns in the Midwest states of Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana? In this episode, Kyle Kondik provides an in-depth look at the partisan split and direction of counties in these states. Carah Ong Whaley and Kyle also discuss the high-stakes supreme court contest in Wisconsin.

Links in this episode:

• How the Other Half Votes
• What to Watch for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race
• A First Look at 2024 State Supreme Court Contests

In this episode, we talk with former Republican Representative Barbara Comstock about why a red wave didn't materialize in the 2022 elections, the state and future of the Republican Party, and potential indictments of Donald Trump.

Barbara was elected to Congress in 2014, and served two terms representing Virginia's Tenth Congressional District, making her the first woman elected to that seat. She was named as one of the "Top Ten Most Effective Lawmakers" in the 115th Congress by the Center for Effective Lawmaking, a joint effort of the University of Virginia and Vanderbilt University. Barbara also serves as an ABC News political contributor and appears regularly on CNN, PBS, and MSNBC.

Links in this episode:

• Barbara Comstock on Twitter
• Baker Donelson
• Issue One
• Sarah Longwell, The Focus Group

At a time when political rights are being contested, we talk with Dahlia Lithwick about the women who are working tirelessly through the law and legal system in pursuit of justice and a more democratic society.

Dahlia Lithwick is the senior legal correspondent at Slate and host of Amicus, Slate's award-winning biweekly podcast about the law. Her work has also appeared in The New York Times, Harper's, The New Yorker, The Washington Post, The New Republic, and Commentary, among other places. Lithwick won a 2013 National Magazine Award for her columns on the Affordable Care Act. She was inducted into the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in October, 2018.

Links in this episode:

• Lady Justice: Women, the Law and the Battle to Save America (Penguin 2002)

In this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses the 2024 Republican presidential primary field even though we're still about a year away from actual voting. In the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (who has yet to declare a bid) together get about 75% of the total support. And Trump is leading by 25 percentage points among potential Republican primary voters, 53% to 28%. Is the Republican Party ready to move on from Trump?

Links in this episode:

• The Republican Presidential Primary: Still Early, but Maybe Getting Late – Sabato's Crystal Ball

"What I wanted to do in the book, It's OK to Be Angry About Capitalism (Penguin Random House 2023), is to break through the irrelevant discussion that takes place," Senator Bernie Sanders told an audience at a UVA Center for Politics event on March 2, 2023. He continued, "Politics is more than polls, more than elections, more than Democrats attacking Republicans or Republicans attacking Democrats. Real politics to me is about what's going on in American life today." To the young people in the crowd, Senator Sanders encouraged them to stay engaged, "Change is not easy. It's part of a long struggle for justice."

In this episode, we share Senator Sanders' remarks and his discussion with Center Scholar Robert Costa, Chief Election and Campaign Correspondent for CBS News.

How likely is an Electoral College tie in the 2024 U.S. presidential election? What are plausible paths to an Electoral College tie? What would happen if there's an Electoral College tie and the House of Representatives has to decide the election? Kyle Kondik, Managing Director of Sabato's Crystal Ball,v walks us through the history, scenarios, and procedures we should be paying attention to in the event no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes.

Links in this episode:

• Notes on the State of Politics: March 1, 2023
• Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, discusses House Ratings for 2024, why control of the House Representatives begins as a Toss-up, the most competitive seats and the role that redistricting and gerrymandering will play in determining outcomes.

Links in this episode:

Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up, Kyle Kondik, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The hidden dynamic that could tip control of the House, Ronald Brownstein, CNN

Limits of Partisanship in Citizen Preferences on Redistricting, Devin McCarthy

On February 21, 2023, Jennifer McClellan handily won the special election to serve Virginia's Fourth Congressional District, making her the first Black woman to represent Virginia in Congress, and Wisconsin held a primary for the most important judicial race of the year in the closely-divided state. In this episode J. Miles Coleman and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the elections and why they matter.

Links in this episode:

Notes on the State of Politics: February 22, 2023

Greg Laski, civilian Assistant Professor of English at the United States Air Force Academy, and Bert Emerson, Associate Professor of English and Director of the Honors Program at Whitworth University in Spokane, Washington join us to discuss their new book, Democracies in America (Oxford University Press). The book features twenty-five essays written by a diverse group of leading intellectuals in history, literature, religious studies, political philosophy, rhetoric, and other disciplines, and it is organized around enduring dilemmas for society and governance, including republic versus democracy, citizenship and representation.

Links in this episode:

• · Democracies in America: Key Words for the 19th Century and Today (Oxford University Press) Use Code AAFLYG6 for 30% off.
• · Commission on the Practice of Democratic Citizenship, American Academy of Arts and Sciences
• · Colored Conventions Project

Why has it been over a decade since an incumbent senator was successfully primaried in a regularly-scheduled election? Which Senators might be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2024? What are the primaries that merit watching? How will changes in the Democratic presidential primary schedule play out? How should the Republican Party consider changes it might make to the way it nominates presidential candidates? Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball addresses these questions and more in this episode with Carah Ong Whaley.

Links in this episode:

• The Senate Primaries to Watch So Far
• Both White and Nonwhite Democrats are Moving Left