Former Treasury budget office chief Michael Sachs highlighted that the decline in national electoral turnout in favour of the African National Congress (ANC) has been accelerating since 2004.

Polls have predicted that the ANC will fall below 50% in electoral support in the upcoming May 29 general election.

Ahead of the elections, Sachs' analysis of the voting trends and party support over 20 years, reflects on data from the Independent Electoral Commission and Statistics South Africa, over four general elections. He noted that he did not include the 1994 election because it was "in so many ways a special and unique election".

He explained that elections were a contest for power, in general, and control over legislative and executive authority, in particular, adding that the only criterion for success was the percentage a party wins.

He said percentages were important in this respect, but the absolute number of votes cast in favour of various parties was also an important indicator of long-term trends in political support and participation.

He explained that votes for the ANC surged in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in the 2009 election thanks to former President Jacob Zuma's candidacy.

"This factor may also have led to an increase in ANC votes in Gauteng and Mpumalanga, which are home to large numbers of people with roots in KZN. This Gauteng surge may partly reflect the emergence of the Congress of the People (Cope)," he noted

Sachs said that in addition to the surge in KZN for the ANC, the entry of Cope into the 2009 election, following its formation when Thabo Mbeki stood down as President, boosted the total vote for this bloc.

He said if KZN was excluded from the numbers, the surge was still witnessed in support for the ANC in 2009.

"The combined vote of the ANC and Cope in 2009 was 10.7-million outside KZN, higher than the vote the ANC had received in the 2004 election. In other words, the creation of Cope (which garnered 1.3-million votes in 2009) probably had the effect of mobilising new voters into the 2009 election," he said.

He highlighted that the combination of significant threats to the ANC's KZN base and declining effective turnout in the rest of the country could be fatal for the ANC's majority.

If the ANC's support in KZN fell back to pre-Zuma levels, it would have 750 000 fewer votes in that province, a major blow to the ANC nationally, Sachs stated.

He noted that the ANC's support as a share of registered votes or as a share of the eligible population had fallen even faster.

He added that the result was that active support for the ANC - in the form of voting - had been falling faster than the electoral outcomes suggest. He said less than one-third of the eligible electorate voted ANC in 2019.

Meanwhile, he said opposition votes have increased substantially in absolute terms between 2004 and 2014, however the increase slowed into 2019.

"While the opposition has gained in percentage terms, this does not reflect an increase in support amongst the whole electorate. In the last two elections, the opposition vote barely kept pace with the increase in registered voters, and opposition support fell as a share of the voting population in the 2019 election," Sachs said.

Tourism Minister Patricia de Lille revealed on Monday that R35-million linked to irregular payments, and for services not rendered, has been returned to the South African Tourism account.

De Lille confirmed that Auditor General Tsakani Maluleke was in the process of finalising a delegation from her office to undertake an audit of the SA Tourism New York office.

She explained that the recovery of funds followed months of communication with the respective media agency to pay back the money.

De Lille said she was made aware of a number of irregular payments which were made through South African Tourism's US and South Africa offices for services not rendered.

"I was recently informed by SA Tourism that there had been a number of irregular payments and invoices noted which do not meet the definition of compliant and valid or internal control verification standards," she explained.

She said a number of irregular invoices were created about three days before the previous financial year end - March 31, 2023 - and processed piecemeal to override banking controls.

These payments were processed from the US South Africa offices by executives who were no longer in the employment of SA Tourism, she added.

De Lille noted that these transactions were linked to a media agency and when these irregularities were discovered, the service provider was informed and conceded that a significant portion received by them and signed off by then acting CFO, acting CEO and the then COO of SA Tourism were for services not rendered.

She explained that the discovery was triggered by a review by SA Tourism.

De Lille said the irregular payments were "completely shocking" and "it is unacceptable" that officials entrusted with public funds continue to act "with such contempt of public finance laws and regulations".

She said the internal audit report was being finalised and the matter had also been reported to Maluleke to investigate.

Ahead of the upcoming May 29 elections, State-owned power utility Eskom has cautioned all political parties against the "dangerous practice" of placing election posters on electrical structures.

The utility said in the past there had been incidents of electrocution whilst posters were being put up, which it said contravened the Occupational Health and Safety Act.

Eskom warned of an inadvertent flash-over or electrical contact and said this could cause serious injuries and even be fatal.

"As such, Eskom would like to caution all political parties against the dangerous practice of placing campaign posters on electrical structures. This includes electricity poles, electricity towers, meter boxes and mini substations," the utility stated.

Only authorised personnel are allowed to climb or work on the electrical structures, it pointed out.

The United Democratic Movement (UDM) announced the availability of its leader Bantu Holomisa as the Premier candidate for the Eastern Cape, saying should the party do well in the upcoming May 29 elections, the party would approach the Independent Electoral Commission to change the UDM's candidates list in the allowed window period after the elections.

On Saturday, during a prayer day in Gqeberha, Holomisa announced that he had, in principle, agreed to the nomination.

UDM deputy president and Chief Whip Nqabayomzi Kwankwa said in the months running up to the elections, Holomisa had been "pressurised" by various traditional leaders, religious groupings and civil society organisations and other individuals to consider the candidacy.

This had also been a desire of the UDM's structures in the Eastern Cape, he added.

Kwankwa explained that being the national leader of a party, Holomisa would campaign in all provinces, but focus more of his time in the Eastern Cape.

Kwankwa noted that should the changes in the party's candidate list succeed, he would, as Holomisa's deputy, "step up to the plate" and be the de facto president of the party while Holomisa assisted in governing the Eastern Cape.

Former South African President Jacob Zuma made his first public appearance in a week as his party sought to dispel speculation that he's ill.

Zuma, who has spearheaded the election campaign of the opposition uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) since it launched in December, failed to attend a series of party events this month. South African media including News24 have reported that Zuma has had a series of falls that have raised concerns among his medical and security teams.

The 82-year-old former leader danced and sang on a stage at a party rally at his homestead in Nkandla in rural KwaZulu-Natal on Thursday evening as scores of supporters chanted his name. Zuma had visible stitches above his left eye and while he didn't address the reports about his health, his party derided them as attempts to undermine the party's growth.

"The falsehoods about President Zuma's health are a desperate attempt to disrupt our progress and weaken our resolve," the MKP said in a statement.

Zuma led South Africa for nine scandal-marred years that included allegations of large-scale corruption and the looting of billions of dollars of government funds. He's denied wrongdoing and hasn't been indicted on the accusations.

His popularity, particularly in the second-most populous province of KwaZulu-Natal, is one of the key reasons the party is garnering support that threatens the ruling African National Congress's (ANC's) ability to maintain the national majority it's had since coming to power in 1994.

The MKP's policies include the expansion of the social security net, the expropriation of land without compensation and the nationalisation of all major banks - including the central bank - and mines.

Zuma told the crowd that the party aims to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, a feat the ANC last held under his predecessor Thabo Mbeki - in order to change laws that hinder the wellbeing of black people who are the "rightful owners" of the country.

The South African Local Government Association (Salga) has welcomed the gazetting of the final White Paper on Citizenship, Immigration and Refugee Protection, stating that it is reflective of duly considered local government submissions.

Salga applauded the Department of Home Affairs (DHA) for "collaborative efforts" and other stakeholders for demonstrating the "will to address the complexities of immigration".

The local government association pointed out that the White Paper was underpinned by the realisation that South Africa had different pieces of legislation dealing with citizenship, immigration and refugee protection, namely the Citizenship Act, Immigration Act, and Refugees Act, as amended.

"In practice, these pieces of legislation are not in harmony with each other, and piecemeal amendments were made without any policy framework. The changing population dynamics imposed by unmanaged immigration have long sparked calls for more to be done to manage immigration. Local government, being the receiver of all immigrants, jumped to the fore to be part of the solution, inspired by the vision to see South Africa effectively manage immigration," said Salga.

In recent months, the DHA conducted public hearings in all nine provinces, including several radio and television interviews on the White Paper which Salga said it had participated in across the country.

Salga led consultations with municipalities on the White Paper to mobilise and consolidate views and "deepen a common understanding at the local level".

In March 2023, Salga hosted a National Migration Summit, where stakeholders across all spheres of government gathered to coordinate all partners to effectively address migration issues and the common agreement was a "whole-of-government approach" to managing migration.

Salga said it fully supported the White Paper on Citizenship, Immigration and Refugee Protection as an important step towards overhauling the migration system in South Africa.

It explained that the White Paper would ensure a coherent approach to managing immigration issues in South Africa without the contradictions with various legislative pieces.

Meanwhile, various civil society organisations are urging Parliament not to adopt the White Paper's proposals into law.

The Helen Suzman Foundation argues that the White Paper is not sound government policy-making because it provides an "inscrutable solution" without properly defining the challenges that migration poses to South Africa.

Democratic Alliance (DA) Shadow Minister for Public Service and Administration Dr Leon Schreiber said on Friday the African National Congress's (ANC's) latest application for leave to appeal confirms that the party is "terrified" of the implications of revealing President Cyril Ramaphosa's personal complicity in cadre deployment corruption.

The DA said it received notice from the ANC that it has applied for leave to appeal a ruling handed down on April 3 by the Johannesburg High Court, which found the ANC and its secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, guilty of civil contempt of court for unlawfully withholding records of its national cadre deployment committee in violation of an earlier order, which was upheld by the Constitutional Court, that all such records must be handed over to the DA.

The ANC had until April 24 to comply or to file an application to appeal.

Schreiber said that should the ANC continue to hold the court in contempt after its latest "doomed" appeal fails, the DA will further escalate its "war against cadre deployment" by applying to send Mbalula and other ANC officials to prison for criminal contempt of court.

He called the ANC's appeal "desperate Stalingrad tactics" that seek to delay justice in the matter.

He pointed out that no fewer than four different courts have now ruled against the ANC's attempts to "hide its dirty cadre deployment secrets".

"It is clear that the ANC's latest delaying tactic is doomed to fail like all that have come before. The simple reality of this case is that the Constitutional Court upheld an order that the ANC must hand over 'all' records related to its national cadre deployment committee dating back to 1 January 2013, when Ramaphosa became cadre deployment committee chairman. Unless the ANC claims to be so illiterate as to not understand the meaning of the word 'all', it is clear that the party knows that it is only a matter of time until the DA exposes Cyril Ramaphosa's fingerprints all over the cadre deployment project to capture and collapse the South African state," Schreiber said.

Schreiber stated that the ANC "needs to understand" that the DA won't relent on the matter, describing it as foundational to the party's mission to rescue South Africa.

Civil rights organisation AfriForum on Thursday demanded that President Cyril Ramaphosa deliver on his promise to act against non-performing Ministers, one of those being Police Minister Bheki Cele.

AfriForum has launched a petition, calling for Cele to go. The organisation said Cele had repeatedly proven that he was incompetent for his position.

"Under his leadership, the South African Police Service (Saps) has obviously weakened. He himself has been involved in corruption scandals - how can it then be expected that police officers at grassroots level will keep their hands clean if the Saps' political chief does not even do it," AfriForum explained.

The organisation has written a letter to Ramaphosa, requesting detailed feedback on Cele's professional performance, as expected from him in his presidential performance agreement.

The agreement signed between Cele and Ramaphosa took effect in June 2019 and will come to an end in April 2024.

AfriForum also wants to know the steps Ramaphosa will be taking against Cele should the assessment indicate that Cele has been "sleeping on the job", as AfriForum believes he "clearly has".

AfriForum chief spokesperson for community safety Jacques Broodryk said the agreement clearly stipulated the targets in crime reduction and successful prosecutions that Cele was expected to reach.

Broodryk noted that Cele was also expected to ensure a 70% conviction rate for serious fraud and corruption in the private sector, a 70% conviction rate for serious fraud and corruption in the public sector and that 90% of identified drug syndicates were neutralised with arrests.

He is also expected to ensure that 90% of identified clandestine laboratories are dismantled with arrests and that 72% of registered serious organised crime project investigations are successfully closed.

Cele must also ensure that 100% of identified illegal mining operations should be responded to in relation to requests received as well as that a 6.9% reduction in crimes against women is achieved.

Broodryk pointed out that crime was one of the biggest issues affecting citizens, and said that looking at the crime situation in the country, it was "almost certain" that Cele failed to reach his targets as set out in his performance agreement.

"We cannot afford to have an underperforming, out-of-touch and incompetent person in such an important role as Minister of Police. It's simple, Cele must go," he said.

With the International Monetary Fund's latest economic growth forecast for South Africa at 0.9%, ActionSA is blaming the dismal outlook for 2024 on the African National Congress (ANC).

ActionSA said it was "concerned" about the "dire" state of the country's economy and blamed the low growth forecast on loadshedding, corruption and "dismal" ANC policies.

"From 2014-2023, economic growth averaged a meagre 0.76% a year, much weaker than our population growth rate of 1.15% during the same period. Simply put, under this government, South Africans are becoming poorer while water, electricity and jobs are growing scarcer," ActionSA said.

It also pointed out South Africa's "worsening" credit rating and the resultant high debt interest payments.

"Debt can be used to grow the economy and create jobs, however, the ANC squandered these funds on corruption, higher public sector wages and failing State-owned enterprises. Consequently, the unemployment rate rose from 25.1% in 2014 to a staggering 32.4% in 2023, with 8-million South Africans unable to find jobs. The ANC borrowed trillions of rands from future generations but failed to create jobs and grow the economy - lining their own pockets instead," ActionSA said.

It punted its own plan to boost economic growth if it comes into government, and promised to lower the debt burden, sustainably.

It said it would create a business-friendly competitive economy and attract international investment, while supporting public-private partnerships, entrepreneurship and small, medium-sized and microenterprises, and labour market reforms.

"During the first five years in government, ActionSA plans will boost economic growth to 5% and create 4.8-million jobs by 2029, ushering in an era of high, inclusive growth and economic prosperity in South Africa," the party promised.

Former boxing champion, now independent candidate, Lovemore Ndou said while he is concerned about coalitions government, if given the mandate to lead after the May elections, he would consider entering a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA), but only if it changes some of its policies and priorities.

Ndou was speaking exclusively with Polity on Thursday, when he said he does not believe that South Africa is ready for coalition government at national level. He said this was evident from coalitions in municipalities.

He noted that he is open to working with other independent candidates and unrepresented parties, however, he was adamant that he would never work with the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

He highlighted that the EFF leader Julius Malema is a "dangerous right-wing extremist."

"…Malema wants people to believe that his party will give them everything for free, he wants people to believe that he is going to give them land and I say that anyone that thinks and believes that Malema is going to give them land is misguided," he said.

Ndou believes that Malema will expropriate land and share it with his friends. He said Malema wants to control banks and mines, calling it a kleptocracy.

He alleged that the EFF has already destroyed municipalities such as Ekurhuleni, adding that the party will destroy the country if it were to lead.

"I have issues with [these] parties. I have issues with the way they have been behaving, with some of them what they stand for. [Meanwhile], the ANC is a failed party, that has nothing left to offer but blames all its failures on apartheid, and white capital monopoly," he said

He claimed that the ANC is a divided party.

He lashed at the country's former President Jacob Zuma, saying he was the most corrupt President and that President Cyril Ramaphosa is "useless".

He said Zuma once sold the country to the Gupta brothers, warning citizens to be cautious about the MK Party. He said this party is a faction of the failed ANC.

"…so you can expect nothing from it, more failure. The problems we are facing today, some of them were created by Zuma's administration," he said.

He said the DA was formed out of splits and mergers and it has been the official opposition party for a long time, however, he said while the DA is good at pointing out the ANC's wrong doings it cannot come with solutions, saying this concerns him.

"I also look at the DA as a party for the middle class and it does not understand that meaningful change begins at the grass roots," he said.

SKILLS AND TOOLS TO RUN SA

Ndou left South Africa for Australia in 1996 and said his return holds no ulterior motive other than to serve South Africa and save South Africans from the crisis created by the ANC.

He said he is sacrificing a lot to come back to South Africa and stand as an independent candidate but added that he was doing it because he is concerned with how the country is operating.

"Our country is on the brink of collapse and if nothing is done now eventually we are going to reach a point of no return and will most probably end up like neighbouring countries like Zimbabwe," he said.

He said Australia has equipped him with tools to run a better South Africa.

His focus will be on job creation and education.

He noted that South Africa needs a better education system, highlighting that the current system is not different from the Bantu education system. He said the education system continues to fail citizens.