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Morgan Stanley says South Africa to stay on prolonged rate hold

Surging oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict is likely to push South African inflation higher and see policymakers keep interest rates unchanged for months, according to Morgan Stanley.

"The implication is a materially longer hold rather than an immediate tightening response," Morgan Stanley economist Andrea Masia wrote in a research note. He sees the central bank staying on hold through most of 2026 and resuming its easing cycle in November, "followed by two 25 basis point cuts in 2027, taking the terminal repo rate to 6%."

The central bank's monetary policy committee is widely expected to hold rates at 6.75% next week as officials assess the fallout from the Iran war, which has lifted oil prices by roughly 45% since it began on February 28.

Based on an outlook that oil prices will remain between $90 and $100 per barrel for several months, Morgan Stanley sees South African inflation accelerating temporarily and growth taking a hit this year.

Under that projection, inflation in Africa's most industrialised economy is forecast to rise from 3.5% to a peak of about 4.3% in April, before easing toward 3.4% by the end of 2026. The South African Reserve Bank targets 3% inflation, with a one percentage point tolerance band either side.

"The MPC would prefer to look through this situation for as long as markets will allow, focusing instead on the still-downward path of inflation expectations and an inflation forecast that still hits the target within the forecast horizon," Masia wrote.

For South Africa, higher oil prices raise fuel costs directly while also weakening the rand, amplifying imported inflation. The analysts estimate a 10% increase in oil prices can lift inflation by about 40 basis points once broader price spillovers are taken into account.

A bigger risk would emerge if oil prices rise further or inflation expectations begin to accelerate, a scenario that could prompt the central bank to consider rate hikes later this year.

The earliest point such pressures might become visible would be around September, when new inflation expectations data becomes available ahead of a SARB meeting, according to the note.

Morgan Stanley cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.7% from 2%, citing weaker consumer spending, tighter financial conditions and currency volatility.

The rand's sensitivity to global risk sentiment could amplify the impact. The analysts calculated that the currency tends to react more strongly to swings in market volatility than to oil prices themselves, making it a key transmission channel for global shocks into the domestic economy.

South Africa rejects US pressure to distance itself from Iran

South Africa has no reason to cut ties with Iran, its director general of foreign affairs said, after the new US ambassador was quoted as saying the country's association with the Islamic Republic was an impediment to good relations with Washington.

In an interview with Reuters over the weekend, Zane Dangor, director-general of the department of international relations, also rejected some other Trump administration demands, such as dropping South Africa's genocide case against Israel, scrapping Black empowerment laws or accepting a refugee programme for whites.

Dangor was speaking against the backdrop of the US and Israeli war on Iran, a conflict placing increased strains on governments navigating relationships with Tehran, and a sharp deterioration in Pretoria's ties with the US during President Donald Trump's second term.

In August Trump imposed a 30% tariff on imports from South Africa, a move that could cause tens of thousands of job losses at a time when a third of South Africans are out of work.

"We have not any reason to cut ties with Iran," Dangor said, but he added: "we are not absolutely uncritical of Iran," noting that President Cyril Ramaphosa's government had admonished the republic for its crackdown on protesters in January, and for attacking neighbours in the latest war with the United States.

"(But) we cannot be pulled into the sort of sphere of influence politics that great powers want to pull us into, and that in this instance includes the US," he said.

In his first media interview, new US Ambassador Leo Bozell was quoted by News24 as saying "an association with Iran is an impediment to good relations with the United States."

"You (the United States) have a particular relationship with Iran ... that many in the developing world (do not) have," Dangor said.

RELATIONSHIP WITH US HITS ROCK BOTTOM

South Africa's relationship with the US has been at a low since Trump accused its Black majority government of persecuting its white minority, repeating false claims about land seizures from white farmers circulating on far-right chat rooms.

Dangor said Pretoria was keen to improve ties with Washington, but "let's engage about areas we agree on".

Regarding the International Court of Justice case against Israel for its Gaza war, Dangor said: "it's not even on the table ... In my last engagement with the State Department people, we indicated that if you disagree with us on this, it's a court process."

Trump administration officials have suggested laws aiming to redress apartheid's legacy, like minimum requirements for Black business ownership and Black employees, must be modified to ease South Africa's 30% tariff.

"We're not going to let the domestic issues that they've put on the table become part of that equation," Dangor said.

The US also aims to process 4 500 refugee applications per month from white South Africans Trump claims are persecuted.

"It's a preferential immigration programme," Dangor said. "But they should do it through the normal channels. They cannot use the moniker of 'refugee'," he said, adding that this was why a Kenya-based organisation that processes refugees was denied entry.

South African inflation expectations ease as war clouds outlook

South Africa's two-year inflation expectations moderated marginally, welcome news for the central bank as the Iran war clouds the outlook.

Average inflation expectations two years ahead — the gauge monetary policymakers prefer for setting borrowing costs — fell to 3.6% in the first quarter from 3.7% previously, according to a survey published by the Stellenbosch-based Bureau for Economic Research on Monday.

The survey data was collected between February 16 and March 5.

Oil prices have surged and rand has weakened sharply since the US and Israel unleashed their war on Iran on February 28. South Africa is an oil importer and higher prices and currency depreciation place upward pressure on costs.

The South African Reserve Bank targets inflation at 3% and is expected to hold interest rates steady at 6.75% when it meets next week.

Price expectations two years ahead are an important ingredient in its policy assessment, but the Middle East conflict adds a high level of uncertainty to any forecast which argues strongly for policy caution.

The publication of the BER survey comes before the release of South Africa's February consumer-price index on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect to the rate to decline to 3.1% year-on-year, compared with 3.5% the month before.

Mavuso criticises municipal mismanagement of water infrastructure, calls for accountability

With municipalities such as Johannesburg and eThekwini losing about 35% to 50% of treated water to leaks owing to mismanagement, this foregone revenue is not spent on essential maintenance, creating direct business continuity risks across sectors.

In her latest weekly newsletter, Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) CEO Busi Mavuso, highlights comments made by Water and Sanitation Department director-general Sean Phillips about the "vicious downward spiral" facing water services in many municipalities.

Mavuso notes that he cited that the Johannesburg metro cannot even afford to transport workers to sites to fix leaks. She posits that Joburg loses about 35% of its water to leaks, compounding its financial predicament, while eThekwini loses about half its water.

"This is nothing other than mismanagement. Water is supposed to be self-sustaining in South Africa, with revenue from its sale paying for infrastructure maintenance. Instead, that revenue is being diverted elsewhere, leaving nothing for essential upkeep."

Mavuso argues that businesses face the consequences, adding that water infrastructure collapse threatens business continuity across sectors.

In this vein, she notes, for example, that manufacturing plants face production shutdowns, while hotels and restaurants struggle with inconsistent supply.

Additionally, she says commercial property values decline when tenants cannot rely on basic services, adding that agriculture faces irrigation uncertainties, while retail centres dependent on municipal water face operational disruption.

"Beyond immediate operations, deteriorating municipal financial health signals rising rates and service charges even as service reliability worsens."

Mavuso notes that the Auditor-General's review of 2023/24 municipalities found only 41 of 257 had clean audits, noting that "local government remains in a dire state".

"The problem is systemic," she argues.

She further expresses concern that, as this is an election year, there is unlikely to be improved governance, as politicians seek short-term solutions to gain citizens' votes.

Meanwhile, Mavuso says one notable exception demonstrates what is possible in municipalities.

She points out that Cape Town has roughly the same population as Johannesburg, but had a capital budget of R12.1-billion last year compared with Johannesburg's R7.1-billion.

She notes that Cape Town is the only metro with a clean audit, adding that Cape Town's water and sanitation directorate spent 94.1% of its capital budget – more than the combined spending of Johannesburg and eThekwini.

"That spending delivers service levels that satisfy the public. The contrast shows the problem stems from choice, not inevitability."

Mavuso argues that the country has institutions designed to ensure clean governance.

She says accounting officers can be held personally liable for irregular expenditure.

She expresses that Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Velenkosini Hlabisa is focused on improving local government performance and has engaged business leaders on collective action.

She notes that BLSA is actively supporting municipal capacity, particularly for infrastructure development and maintenance.

Mavuso says Operation Vulindlela has proactive policies to ringfence utility revenue for infrastructure maintenance, adding that the Special Investigating Unit can investigate suspected corruption through presidential proclamation.

"The problem is that these interventions are designed for longer-term systemic improvement or after-the-fact accountability.

"Most act only after investigations conclude and charges are prosecuted. At this moment, with election-year pressures accelerating deterioration, we need proactive vigilance that prevents damage rather than prosecuting it afterwards."

Mavuso argues that civil servants must recognise that they carry responsibility for appropriate sp...

Ramaphosa pledges accelerated govt momentum for economic recovery

President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday that government is working harder to increase South Africa's economic recovery momentum, urging citizens to reflect on whether government is fulfilling the promise in the country's Constitution.

Ahead of Human Rights Day on March 21, Ramaphosa wrote in his weekly letter to the nation that government's work was "far from complete", pointing out that poverty, inequality and unemployment remain "stubborn obstacles" for South Africans.

South Africa's Human Rights Day is celebrated each year on March 21 to commemorate the 1960 Sharpeville Massacre, where 69 people were killed protesting apartheid pass laws.

Ramaphosa said closing gaps in inequality and unemployment was a constitutional imperative.

"When we mobilise investment to build factories or open mines to create jobs and opportunities for emerging businesses, or when we build new roads and revitalise hospitals, we are working towards a society in which everyone has dignity.

"When we lay new pipes to bring water to outlying villages or repair ageing water infrastructure in cities and towns, or when we restore the supply of electricity to communities, we are advancing the right to dignity," he said.

He urged citizens to "rededicate" themselves to the Constitution and to its principles.

"Let us resolve in our homes, schools, workplaces and communities to treat every person with the dignity that is their right – and let us never stop working until we have ensured that every person can live in dignity, comfort and peace," he said.

He explained that the right to dignity was operationalised through law, institutions and policies.

"…our courts continue to assert this right and, where necessary, order government and those in power to take measures to enhance people's dignity. Protecting a person's right to dignity is not limited to the way people treat each other.

"It is also about improving the circumstances in which people live. It lies at the heart of the policies and programmes of this government and of the work of many organisations and individuals across society," he said.

Ramaphosa highlighted that as the global economic outlook became increasingly uncertain, government must sustain massive investment in infrastructure, continue with far-reaching reforms in energy, water and logistics, overhaul the skills development system and expand support to small businesses.

Solidarity warns Ramaphosa on NHI implementation

Solidarity pointed out on Friday that government cannot, through "political rhetoric or administrative manoeuvres", continue implementing the National Health Insurance (NHI) system, which is currently stalled by a court order.

This was in response to President Cyril Ramaphosa's statement during Thursday's parliamentary question and answer session, in which the organisation said he gave the impression that the implementation of the NHI Act is continuing, even though, according to a recent court order, it cannot.

Last month Ramaphosa confirmed that he would not promulgate any provisions of the NHI Act prior to the Constitutional Court handing down judgment on the public participation challenges, and that he would not enforce any part of the Act until he was requested to do so by the Minister of Health.

The court cases related to the public participation process that led to the adoption of the NHI Bill by Parliament, arguing that it was inadequate on this score.

The President clarified that the court order would not stop preparatory work already underway, such as registering patients who would use the NHI, as well as the accreditation and contracting of health service providers.

"The President is living in a dream world if he thinks that the court order will not disrupt the NHI timeline," said Solidarity Research Institute economic researcher Theuns du Buisson.

Solidarity's legal team will study Ramaphosa's statements to determine whether the preparatory work mentioned could potentially be a violation of the court order.

Du Buisson believes that Ramaphosa is trying to create the impression that the NHI already has momentum and that implementation is inevitable.

"This is not the case. The position is clear: the NHI must not proceed at this time. The NHI is not going to materialise," he said.

The organisation pointed out that many of the examples that Ramaphosa presented as preparation for the NHI – such as the renovation of hospitals, the construction of new health facilities and the appointment of doctors – do not actually relate to the implementation of an NHI system.

Du Buisson said it was misleading to suddenly present such basic State functions as NHI-related.

"That kind of thing should be done in any case, without any mention of an NHI. It would, of course, be good if doctors were appointed, and hospitals were built and maintained. Unfortunately, this has not been done and has been neglected for many years," he said.

The only element that could be linked to an NHI scheme is the development of new financial systems and record-keeping, he added.

"Even in this regard, it is inconceivable that something like this has never been done for the existing public healthcare system to this day," Du Buisson said.

Following the court order, Solidarity also sent a formal notice to Ramaphosa, the Department of Health, the National Treasury and relevant Ministers, warning them against any possible disregard of the court order.

In the notice, the organisation expressly stated that no implementation, preparation or budget allocations regarding the NHI may now take place, and that any action in violation of the court order may lead to further litigation.

Du Buisson said that, with the necessary support, Solidarity's litigation would "avert the NHI disaster", as he reiterated the organisation's argument that the system was unaffordable and unworkable.

Parly committee, ANC support SANDF deployment as operations underway

Parliament's Select Committee on Security and Justice and the African National Congress (ANC) have expressed appreciation for the visibility of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) in various parts of the country, saying the deployment should be understood in context as creating stability in communities, and protecting society from crime.

There have been mixed reactions to the deployment, with some political parties and civil society organisations raising alarms about the legality of the deployment, citing concerns with constitutional oversight.

Last month, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the deployment of the SANDF to support the South African Police Service (Saps) in tackling gang violence and illegal mining in the Western Cape, Gauteng and Eastern Cape.

Committee chairperson Jane Mananiso said an impression must never be created that Ramaphosa acted unlawfully or bypassed parliamentary processes.

"This deployment will ensure the restoration of peace to troubled and violated communities. Our police have for too long become victims to criminals while they needed to observe legislative requirements instead of dealing aggressively with criminals who have no regard whatsoever for other people's human rights," she said.

The committee emphasised the importance of cooperation, collaboration and partnership between all law enforcement agencies in combating crime and bringing peace to communities.

"Our communities want decisive action in combating drugs, gangs, extortion, the water mafia, illegal mining and illegal immigration. All these affect service delivery negatively if not responded to," Mananiso said.

ANC national spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu explained that the deployment was a plan in action, to curb gangsterism, the proliferation of drugs and illegal mining.

She refuted what she said were distortions by the Democratic Alliance (DA) that the army was not well trained and prepared to deal with these crimes.

The DA on Thursday demanded Ramaphosa urgently clarify why the letters of employment for the SANDF deployments, particularly those relating to gang violence in Gauteng, the Western Cape and Nelson Mandela Bay, had still not been tabled before the Joint Standing Committee on Defence.

The party said while it welcomed the SANDF's short-term deployment to support the Saps, it as concerned by the apparent lack of constitutional compliance.

"The DA's posture and rejection of the army deployment, falsehoods of unpreparedness and allegations of heavy handedness and brute force akin to the erstwhile apartheid army occupation of communities is opportunistic and indifferent to the plight of the people of the Western Cape, which is infested by the high levels of crime which have reached alarming and uncontrollable proportions," stated Bhengu.

Creamer Media marks 45 years of independent engineering and mining journalism

When Creamer Media celebrates its forty-fifth anniversary this March, it marks not only a company milestone, but also a rare achievement in specialist journalism: four-and-a-half decades of continuous, independent reporting focused on engineering, mining, industry and economic development.

Founded on March 13, 1981, by publishing editor Martin Creamer and his wife Veronica Creamer, the business began in modest circumstances in Commissioner Street, Johannesburg. From those early days in a small inner-city office, the company has grown into a multimedia publishing house employing about 48 people and serving a global specialist audience across print, digital, video and webinar platforms.

The Gap Creamer Media was built on a simple but powerful editorial insight: that technical and industrial sectors needed the same hard-news treatment as mainstream current affairs.

At the time, many industry publications were corporate-funded or promotional in style. Martin Creamer, coming from a general news background at titles such as the Sunday Express and the Sunday Times' Business Times, saw an opportunity to bring frequency, urgency and headline-driven reporting to engineering and mining coverage.

The founding editorial philosophy, which is still repeated to Creamer Media's news journalists to this day, is straightforward: facts are sacred; comment is free.

48 - The number of people that Creamer Media employs

That principle has remained non-negotiable across 45 years and multiple technology cycles.

From the outset, speed and accuracy defined the newsroom culture. In the pre-digital era, Creamer became known for arriving at interviews with a typewriter and completing stories on site, facilitating immediate fact-checking in a time before email, laptops or mobile phones.

Launching an independent publishing business in the early 1980s required more than editorial conviction. It demanded financial creativity and relationship-building.

With limited access to bank funding, the company adopted a self-funding model supported by supplier credit. Early breakthroughs included a typesetter who provided workspace and extended payment terms, and a Pretoria printer who agreed to 90-day terms. This allowed the fledgling publisher to produce and distribute newspapers while advertising revenue cycles caught up.

That early ecosystem of trust helped establish what would become one of South Africa's most durable specialist publishing houses. In its first year, in 1981, the flagship publication won the Best Specialist Publication of the Year award – the first of many industry accolades.

Flagship Titles, Expanding Platforms Today, Creamer Media is best known for its Engineering News, Mining Weekly and Polity websites, which are updated in real-time, and which have also resulted in spin-off offerings, such as Research Channel Africa and Creamer Media's Virtual Showroom.

These publications have extended their reach dramatically through the release of daily email newsletters, which are distributed for free to registered subscribers, as well as through regular news bursts across the most powerful social media platforms.

The founding editorial philosophy, which is still repeated to Creamer Media's news journalists to this day,

is straightforward: facts are sacred; comment is free

Creamer Media's digital presence remains underpinned, however, by the group's flagship weekly print magazine Engineering News & Mining Weekly, which is published every Friday and continues to defy the gravity that has grounded so many other specialist titles in South Africa.

So, what began as a fortnightly tabloid newspaper has evolved into a fully integrated multimedia operation delivering text, audio, video, data-rich features and live digital events to readers and viewers in South Africa and internationally.

The company remains a privately owned family business, with five Creamer family directors.

Technology S...

City of Joburg entities identify fraudulent transfer of various city-owned properties

The City of Joburg Property Company has reported that it has discovered several city-owned properties that were fraudulently transferred to other individuals without the city's knowledge or consent.

The company notes that the case was first identified by the City of Joburg's geographic information system department, which tracks and verifies all properties that are transferred so that the city's billing system can be updated to bill the correct property owners.

The GIS department assisted the JPC by extracting transfers that occurred on the properties that are owned by the city, which were then analysed internally to check the legitimacy of the transfers.

"The preliminary findings by the Property Intelligence and Asset Management Unit indicated that fraudulent documents with forged signatures, purporting to be those of CoJ, JPC and Gauteng Provincial Department of Human Settlements officials were used to fraudulently transfer the properties to other individuals.

"This is not in line with the provisions of Section 14(2) of the Municipal Finance Management Act, which governs the disposal of municipal assets," says the JPC.

Following these findings, the JPC says the Property Intelligence and Asset Management Unit has opened 18 criminal cases with the South African Police Service for further investigation.

The criminal cases were opened between February 17 and March 11, with 13 cases reported in Bramley, two each in Booysens and Honeydew and one in Sandringham.

In addition to the criminal investigations currently under way, the company says JPC Legal Services is currently in the High Court, within Gauteng, to obtain interdicts and court orders to transfer the properties back to the city.

The JPC says it remains committed to safeguarding public assets and ensuring accountability in the management of municipal property.

The entity says it will continue to work closely with law enforcement agencies to ensure that those responsible for these unlawful transactions are held accountable.

The city also reiterates its zero-tolerance stance on fraud, corruption and the unlawful disposal of municipal assets.

HSF, DA concerned over lack of SANDF deployment compliance

The Helen Suzman Foundation has expressed concern over the lack of compliance in a South African National Defence Force deployment, with the Democratic Alliance calling on President Cyril Ramaphosa to urgently table the SANDF letters of employment for the combating of gang-related crime.

Last month, Ramaphosa announced the deployment of the SANDF to support the South African Police Service in tackling gang violence and illegal mining in the Western Cape, Gauteng and Eastern Cape.

Ramaphosa said he directed Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia and the SANDF to develop a tactical plan on where security forces should be deployed in the Western Cape and Gauteng to deal with gang violence and illegal mining.

The HSF called on government to urgently clarify operational safeguards, and oversight mechanisms governing the deployment to ensure full compliance with the law and to prevent any abuses of power.

The foundation and the DA said they were alarmed by the lack of compliance with legislative provisions governing the deployment of SANDF in cooperation with the Saps.

The HSF pointed out that Minister of Defence Angie Motshekga failed to issue a notice in the Government Gazette within 24 hours of Presidential authorisation as required by the Defence Act.

Ramaphosa has said, as required by the Constitution, that he will inform the National Assembly and the National Council of Provinces regarding "the timing and place of deployment of the soldiers and what it will cost".

"The Presidential Minute rather confusingly shows a deployment starting date of 30 January 2026. Even if this is a typographical error, it is worrying in a document of such import and should be corrected," said the HSF.

The HSF pointed out that as to compliance with the legislative requirement for training of SANDF members before deployment in support of the Saps, it is worrying to note that on March 4, Cachalia stated that the deployment of SANDF in Gauteng would take longer than initially anticipated after a gang-related violence incident.

He stated that the soldiers would first need to receive appropriate training to understand their limitation of power in engagement with civilians.

The organisation highlighted that in a country with a painful history of military and police brutality, including in 2020 with the torture and death of Collins Khosa in Alexandra, Johannesburg, it was imperative that training was adequately and appropriately completed.

Meanwhile, the DA is demanding urgent clarity from Ramaphosa as to why the letters of employment for the SANDF deployments announced during his State of the Nation Address, particularly those relating to gang violence in Gauteng, the Western Cape and Nelson Mandela Bay, have still not been tabled before the Joint Standing Committee on Defence.

DA National Council of Provinces Member on Security and Justice Nicholas Gotsell said Parliament only on Monday received a letter authorising an SANDF deployment to combat illegal mining in Gauteng under Operation Prosper, even though the deployment began on January 30 and will end on April 30.

"This means Parliament was informed 38 days after troops were promised to be deployed. Whilst the DA welcomes the deployment, it is concerned by the apparent lack of constitutional compliance - particularly when R80-million is made available for a deployment that is almost at its end," he explained.

The party noted that when notification occurs more than a month after the fact, Parliament's ability to meaningfully exercise its oversight powers is significantly undermined.

"The decision to employ the SANDF should already have been informed by consultations with Saps, the SANDF Chief and relevant national security structures. Yet the absence of the employment letters for the gang-related deployments, combined with the clear lack of preparedness displayed by the Department of Defence (DoD) and Saps during last week's Joint Standing Co...