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SIU's limits must be addressed for greater impact, says ISS

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) said on Wednesday that while the Special Investigating Unit (SIU) has comparatively good investigation, litigation and prevention capabilities, its current successes need to be expanded with careful regard for key risks.

This was important, the ISS said, as support grew for the SIU to be the country's new dedicated anti-corruption agency.

On Wednesday, the ISS released its policy brief, which examines the features associated with the success of the SIU, and explores the challenges facing the institution. The ISS makes recommendations for how to address these.

ISS consultant and researcher on policing, criminal justice and corruption David Bruce advised that it was essential to address the factors that currently limited the SIU's potential for even greater impact.

The SIU investigates serious allegations of corruption, malpractice and maladministration in the administration of State institutions, investigations that are triggered by referrals from State institutions, a whistleblower complaint or a referral from the Auditor-General. But the investigations must be initiated under a Presidential proclamation.

The ISS noted the key features contributing to the SIU's effectiveness, which included an organisational culture of integrity, excellence and innovation as well as independence in matters of finance and human resources.

However, Bruce highlighted that it was difficult to measure the effectiveness of anti-corruption agencies, and that reputation was often used as an indication of effectiveness.

He said the SIU was reputed to be one of the more effective anti-corruption agencies in South Africa, noting that the SIU's performance was measured in financial terms - specifically, losses prevented, potential recoveries and actual cash recovered.

In the 2024/25 financial year alone, 49 proclamations were issued, five of which have been reported to date in the current year.

The resulting investigations and reports have raised the SIU's profile and reputation.

While the SIU's recommendations were not legally binding, a convoluted system of accountability for implementation had evolved, the ISS said.

However, it noted a risk of implementation inefficiencies owing to bureaucratic delays, interdepartmental politics, budget shortfalls, tick-box compliance and political interference.

The SIU has established a central Case Monitoring Mechanism, which will enable the tracking and monitoring of all its referrals for remedial action, which is intended for greater accountability and consequence management. However, the ISS said stronger enforcement measures were needed.

The ISS pointed out that the criminal justice system did not have the capacity to investigate and prosecute complex corruption cases on a large scale, noting difficulties in proving such cases beyond a reasonable doubt.

The SIU uses civil law to recover debts owed to the State.

"…therefore, it only must prove cases on a balance of probabilities (a lower threshold). Civil recovery processes have the potential to recover proportionally more assets than criminal [cases]," the ISS found.

For disciplinary action to be effective, the ISS suggested that there should be a high degree of certainty that consequences will follow.

"Strengthening disciplinary measures against officials found guilty of financial misconduct in disciplinary proceedings is essential," it stated.

Trump's tariffs put 100 000 jobs at risk in South Africa, Kganyago says

US President Donald Trump's tariffs on South Africa could cause around 100 000 job losses, with the agriculture and automotive sectors hardest-hit, central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago said on Wednesday.

Kganyago told local radio station 702 that the impact of the 30% tariff, which Africa's biggest economy faces from August 1, could cause significant damage to specific industries.

"The impact in agriculture could actually be quite devastating because agriculture employs a lot of low-skilled workers, and here the impact is on citrus fruit, table grapes and wines," Kganyago said.

He said statistics showing South African car exports to the United States slumped more than 80% in the wake of import tariffs imposed on cars by the Trump administration in April were very concerning.

"If we do not find alternative measures the impact on jobs could be around 100 000, so that is what we actually face," the governor said.

South Africa already has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, with the official rate sitting at 32.9% in the first quarter of this year and an expanded definition at 43.1%.

Farmer groups have also warned of the adverse impact of the tariffs on producers of citrus, macadamia nuts, grapes, wine, fruit juices and ostrich leather.

In the citrus sector alone the tariffs have put 35 000 jobs in jeopardy and threaten to devastate towns such as Citrusdal in the Western Cape that are heavily dependent on exports to the US.

Shadrack Sibiya's leave of absence undermines Saps' investigation, credibility - DA

The Democratic Alliance (DA) said on Tuesday that National Deputy Commissioner Lieutenant General Shadrack Sibiya's leave of absence raisesd serious questions about governance and accountability in the South African Police Service (Saps).

Sibiya was implicated in KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi's explosive allegations of corruption, political interference, and malfeasance, where Mkhwanazi specifically accused Police Minister Senzo Mchunu of unilaterally disbanding the Political Killings Task Team and redirecting 121 active investigation dockets to the office of Sibiya, where they have allegedly been neutralised.

Mchunu was placed on a leave of absence on Sunday by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

"In policing, placing someone on leave of absence instead of suspending them for a disciplinary transgression is highly irregular and highlights the growing crisis of executive oversight at the top of SapsAPS. This distinction is not a technicality, it is fundamental," said DA Spokesperson on Police Ian Cameron.

He explained that by asking Sibiya to take "leave of absence," the Saps has sidestepped its own disciplinary framework, undermining the integrity of the investigation and the credibility of the institution.

Cameron highlighted that his party wouldThe DA will submit urgent Parliamentary questions to establish allegations against Sibiya and as toascertain why the "proper" suspension or transfer process was bypassed.

He noted thatCameron argued that a leave of absence is typically voluntary and granted for personal reasons, such as medical or family needs.

"It carries no disciplinary implications and is not defined anywhere in the Saps Discipline Regulations," he said.

Cameron explained that a suspension, by contrast, is imposed by the employer, either as a precautionary or disciplinary measure where serious allegations arise.

He said Sibiya remains subject to the Saps Discipline Regulations, noting that only the National Commissioner and the nine Provincial Commissioners are excluded from the Disciplinary Code.

"The Saps Discipline Regulations explicitly empower the National Commissioner to suspend a member on full pay if they are alleged to have committed misconduct and their presence could jeopardise an investigation or endanger safety or Sstate property," he added.

He noted that under normal circumstances, the Minister of Police would be expected to exercise oversight and provide legal and policy clarity on such a serious step.

"Yet South Africa has now gone almost 48 hours with no appointed Minister of Police. This leadership vacuum compounds the crisis and raises further doubts about whether the Saps leadership is being held to account in line with the law and the public interest," he said.

DA claims Mcebisi Jonas was denied US visa months ago

It has been widely presumed that South Africa has been scrambling to mend ties with the US before tariffs of up to 30% kick in on August 1, but the Democratic Alliance (DA) is claiming that Special Envoy to the US Mcebisi Jonas was denied a visa to the US as far back as May.

Jonas was appointed by President Cyril Ramaphosa in April. In May, the Presidency stated that "Mr. Jonas holds a valid visa for travel to the United States of America".

However, Creamer Media reported in April that following his appointment, Jonas might face the "cold shoulder" from the US following public comments made by Jonas in 2020, in which he disparaged US President Donald Trump.

The comments could have seen Jonas being given the "cold shoulder" in Washington DC, assuming he was even allowed to enter the country, retired US Army Colonel and current independent journalist and political analyst Chris Wyatt told Creamer Media then.

The DA alleges that the US government rejected Jonas's credentials then and does not recognise him as South Africa's official interlocutor.

DA spokesperson on International Relations and Cooperation Emma Powell said government was repeatedly advised that Jonas was not an acceptable representative and that an alternative should be appointed.

The DA wants an urgent parliamentary briefing from the Presidency on the matter and answers on why the Presidency defended Jonas's appointment as late as June.

"Now that the nation is aware that there is in fact no special representative advocating for South Africa in Washington on behalf of the Presidency, it is clear that our economy may in coming weeks lose billions of rands in exports when liberation day tariffs come into effect," Powell warned.

The DA is demanding that a "credible envoy" be appointed to repair the relationship between South Africa and the US.

GOOD Party secretary-general Brett Herron urged Ramaphosa to update the nation on the matter, adding that it was doubtful that any South African envoy acceptable to Trump would have dissuaded his decision on the proposed tariffs. However, he conceded that South Africa would have benefited from having a trusted person in Washington.

"If the President has retained Mcebisi Jonas as his Special Envoy to North America despite knowing for months that the US government had denied him a diplomatic visa, as alleged by the DA, it does not augur well for South Africa's hopes to dissuade Washington from imposing a minimum 30% trade tariff from next month. If Jonas' absence from the President's delegation to the White House in May was due to visa restrictions, the public should have been honestly informed. Continuing to present him as an active envoy in such circumstances can only be described as deception and a betrayal of trust," Herron stated.

ANC backs Cachalia's appointment, latest commission of inquiry

The African National Congress (ANC) on Tuesday expressed full confidence in the appointment of Firoz Cachalia as acting Minister of Police and defended President Cyril Ramaphosa's announcement of a Commission of Inquiry into allegations made against the police and its Minister Senzo Mchunu.

Following the public outcry on the explosive allegations made by KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, Ramaphosa placed Mchunu on an immediate leave of absence, appointing Cachalia to act in the position from August.

Mkhwanazi made allegations of corruption, political interference, and malfeasance, specifically accusing Mchunu of unilaterally disbanding the Political Killings Task Team and redirecting 121 active investigation dockets to the office of National Deputy Commissioner Lieutenant General Shadrack Sibiya, where they have allegedly been neutralised.

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said Ramaphosa's move to place Mchunu on a leave of absence was "commendable", describing it as a "proactive and considered" measure.

"…importantly, this decision does not imply guilt or prejudgment, it is a step that preserves the integrity of both the Executive and the investigation itself. The President has acted in full accordance with his constitutional authority, as provided in Section 91(2) of the Constitution, to appoint and relieve members of the Cabinet," he said.

However, opposition parties, including the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), have criticised Cachalia's appointment, claiming that it is not constitutionally sound, with the MKP threatening legal action against Ramaphosa, should he not withdraw his announcement by Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Mbalula noted Cachalia's "experience and credibility".

"His deep understanding of the security sector and his proven commitment to clean governance position him to provide the leadership required at this moment. We wish him strength and resolve as he assumes this responsibility during a critical period," he said.

CONSTITUTIONALISM

Mbalula said his party viewed the commissions of inquiry as "essential instruments in the pursuit of justice, truth, and reform", when existing institutions were compromised.

The commission of inquiry into Mkhwanazi's allegations will be chaired by acting Deputy Chief Justice Mbuyiseli Madlanga, and will be assisted by Advocate Sesi Baloyi and Advocate Sandile Khumalo.

Ramaphosa assured that the Commission would have the power to refer matters for immediate criminal investigation and urgent decisions on prosecution.

Mbalula said despite significant costs associated with such commissions, citing the Zondo Commission into Allegations of State Capture, they yielded substantial returns.

"…over R14-billion in assets frozen, R5.4-billion recovered, and more than 60 individuals and entities facing criminal prosecution [owing to the State Capture Commission]. The Nugent Commission triggered a renewal at South African Revenue Service (Sars) and exposed private sector complicity in undermining State capacity. These Commissions have not only exposed wrongdoing but have informed meaningful legislative and structural reforms," he argued.

Opposition parties have expressed scepticism at the establishment of the commission, with the GOOD Party suggesting Ramaphosa must instead empower the Special Investigating Unit to conduct a "swift, independent" probe under the Prevention and Combating of Corrupt Activities Act.

ActionSA said it saw no logic in yet another commission of inquiry carrying out work that law enforcement and agencies such as the Independent Police Investigative Directorate should be doing.

Mbalula said this was not a moment for complacency, nor was it a time for political theatre.

"…it is a time for principled leadership, for renewal in action, and for a reaffirmation of the values that underpin the liberation movement's commitment to build...

South Africa aims to forge G20 accord despite ongoing US enmity

South Africa expressed confidence that it can get finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 nations to agree on a communique for the first time since it assumed the leadership of the bloc, despite differences between the US and its other members.

Discussions in the lead-up to a meeting at a resort near the eastern port city of Durban this week laid a strong foundation for consensus to be reached, Duncan Pieterse, the director-general of South Africa's National Treasury, said in an opening address to officials on Monday.

"We are very pleased with the collaborative spirit shown during the virtual discussions we had last week and we believe that we are able to achieve agreement in most of the areas," he said. "We believe that those engagements have set a very strong foundation for our discussions."

The meeting is the fourth of its kind to be held since South Africa took over the presidency of the G20 from Brazil, a tenure than has been largely overshadowed by Donald Trump's return to the White House and his plans to hike tariffs on most imports into the US. None of the previous meetings produced a consensus accord, with delegates failing to reach agreement on climate financing and a range of other issues.

US enmity toward South Africa and its aims of using its G20 presidency to promote solidarity, equality and sustainability continues, with its Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent skipping this week's talks once again.

"We are, of course, meeting at a moment of ongoing uncertainty in the global economy, while there are signs of resilience in some areas, various challenges do remain," Pieterse said. "The multilateral system is being tested, and our collective ability to respond will shape the pace of our recovery, but also the prospects for inclusive and sustainable development."

HSRC survey finds significant decline of trust in Saps, lowest in 27 years

The Human Sciences Research Council's (HSRC's) round 21 of the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS) revealed that trust in the South African Police Service (Saps) has declined significantly over the past two decades, with the council urgently calling on the police to prioritise building public trust and confidence.

The study showed that only 22% of citizens expressed trust in the Saps in 2022, with the 2023 and 2024/25 confidence levels almost unchanged.

Principal investigator of the study Dr Benjamin Roberts explained that the research team analysed representative survey data on police confidence trends from social surveys conducted by the HSRC since the late 1990s.

He noted that this analysis provides context on the extent and nature of the challenge, highlighting variations and drivers of public perceptions on policing.

"The findings are expected to inform interventions aimed at restoring public faith in the police. By adopting a more community-focused and accountable approach to policing, we can work towards creating safer and more secure communities for all South Africans," he said.

The survey found that trust levels in the police have remained relatively low over the 1998 to 2024/25 period.

"…notably, during this 27-year interval, a majority of the adult public never expressed trust in the police, suggesting that police legitimacy has been a longstanding issue. Over the 1998 to 2010 period, the average level of trust in the police was relatively static. It ranged between 39% and 42% in all but a few years," it highlighted.

Roberts pointed out that this was followed by a sharp decline between 2011 and 2013, following the Marikana massacre of August 2012.

However, he noted that confidence had almost returned to the 2011 level by the time of the 2015 survey.

He highlighted that the 2016 to 2020 period was characterised by modest fluctuation between 31% and 35%.

"The hard Covid-19 lockdown experience, which included instances of police brutality in enforcing lockdown regulations, did not appear to have had an aggregate effect on confidence levels based on the 2020 survey results," he said.

He noted the 2021 period, which he said public trust in the police dipped to a low of 27%.

"…this appears to be linked to the July 2021 social unrest. Many criticised the poor performance of the police during the unrest. This was followed by a further 5 percentage point decline to 22% in 2022, with the 2023 and 2024/25 confidence levels almost unchanged, which may reflect increasing rates for certain crimes," he said.

The 2022, 2023 and 2024/25 figures are the lowest recorded in 27 years.

https://www.polity.org.za/article/south-african-social-attitudes-survey-national-and-provincial-trends-trust-in-the-police-1998-2025-2025-07-14

Opposition parties doubt judicial commission into Saps debacle will lead to accountability

Opposition parties have expressed scepticism following President Cyril Ramaphosa's announcement of a new judicial commission of inquiry, expressing concerns about whether it will lead to accountability and prosecutions.

Last week, KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi made allegations of corruption, political interference, and malfeasance, specifically accusing Police Minister Senzo Mchunu of unilaterally disbanding the Political Killings Task Team and redirecting 121 active investigation dockets to the office of National Deputy Commissioner Lieutenant General Shadrack Sibiya, where they have allegedly been neutralised.

In response, Ramaphosa on Sunday announced the establishment of the commission to investigate the allegations and he placed Mchunu on a leave of absence with immediate effect, appointing Professor Firoz Cachalia as acting Minister of Police.

Oppositions parties including ActionSA, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Democratic Alliance (DA), Economic Freedom Fighters and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party have been calling for Mchunu's removal from Cabinet since Mkhwanazi publicly made his claims.

Ramaphosa announced that the inquiry will be chaired by acting Deputy Chief Justice Mbuyiseli Madlanga, and will be assisted by Advocate Sesi Baloyi and Advocate Sandile Khumalo.

He said the Commission would have the power to refer matters for immediate criminal investigation and urgent decisions on prosecution.

ACCOUNTABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY

GOOD Party secretary-general Brett Herron said the appointment of a commission was not good enough, calling on Ramaphosa to empower the Special Investigating Unit (SIU) to conduct a "swift, independent" probe under the Prevention and Combating of Corrupt Activities Act.

Herron explained that the SIU has the legal mandate, investigative muscle, and track record to pursue complex corruption matters involving public officials.

"The appointment of a commission, while well-intentioned, is too slow, too cumbersome, and too costly. We have walked this road before, most notably with the Zondo Commission and we have seen that a commission of inquiry cannot replace a criminal investigation," he said.

He noted that the judicial commission could not suspend, charge, or arrest anyone. It could only make recommendations.

"…and until it does, those implicated remain in place, leaving the system vulnerable and trust further diminished. Only Minister Senzo Mchunu has been placed on special leave, likely earning a ministerial salary for sitting at home," Herron said.

DA leader John Steenhuisen said his party welcomed the announcement of Mchunu's leave of absence.

"These allegations provided the President with an opportunity to show bold and firm leadership. Instead, he has once again outsourced executive responsibility to a commission, and South Africans have grown cynical of talk shops, task teams and commissions which they see as buying time and avoiding accountability," he said.

Steenhuisen warned that his party would not accept a years-long process that gathered damning evidence only to deliver zero accountability.

"The country cannot afford another elaborate filing cabinet of findings that gather dust while the politically connected escape justice," he said.

He promised that the DA would hold Ramaphosa to account on all findings and recommendations made by the committee, and that it would fight in Cabinet and Parliament for swift and visible action.

He said Parliament must not be sidelined and that the work of Parliament to hold the executive to account must continue unabated and undeterred.

IFP national spokesperson Mkhuleko Hlengwa called on the commission to act with urgency and transparency, and for all implicated parties to fully cooperate.

He said the allegations of criminality, corruption, collusion and interference within the Saps were deeply alarming and warranted a respo...

Tariff turmoil masks South Africa's recovery, Standard Bank says

The chaos wrought by a recent wave of US tariff actions may be obscuring early signs of recovery in South Africa's economy, Standard Bank Group said.

The recent downward revisions to the country's growth outlook are "mostly a function of international flux, not so much a function of domestic concerns," said Goolam Ballim, chief economist at Africa's largest bank by assets. "It is international headwinds that have caused us to revise."

Standard Bank cut its 2025 growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.8% at the beginning of the year and the International Monetary Fund has lowered its own projection to 1% from 1.5% previously.

But the country's economy might be growing faster than official statistics show, given improvements in its power and rail operations and sustained interest rate cuts, Ballim said at the bank's Africa Unlocked 2025 conference in Cape Town.

"Maybe 1% growth is the low end of reality and maybe the economy is doing a little bit better than the official numbers suggest, and maybe the informal economy in South Africa is a little bit more dynamic than the official statistics capture," he said.

South Africa has seen gains in both baseload energy supply and solar power, while the movement of goods has surged 67% as reforms at the national rail and port operator begin to take effect, Ballim said.

"We are also seeing reduced idling times for ships anchored either outside of ports or in ports," he said, citing quicker turnaround times at the Durban port that carries the bulk of South Africa's imports.

Further, a 100 basis point reduction in the benchmark lending rate since September and South Africans being given early access to a portion of their retirement savings without penalties have lifted consumer spending power. They have withdrawn as much as R60-billion which "could draw to about a R100-billion" over the next two years, providing some degree of increased consumer impetus.

Even the country's stocks are signalling optimism about the economy. According to Ballim, South Africa's stock price-to-earnings ratios remain fairly elevated, suggesting the reform agenda for the most part will hold.

"For the most part, we remain convinced that the path is upward and perhaps even with increased upside to the type of forecast we have pencilled in in here."

Gift of the Givers wants Ramaphosa to support Mkhwanazi as it urges interventions to improve policing

Ahead of President Cyril Ramaphosa's Sunday address on the explosive allegations made by KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, humanitarian aid organisation Gift of the Givers wants Ramaphosa to support Mkhwanazi by granting him a hearing on the current allegations, and hear him out on ways to improve the crime fighting capability of the State.

Last week, Mkhwanazi made allegations of corruption, political interference, and malfeasance, specifically accusing Police Minister Senzo Mchunu of unilaterally disbanding the Political Killings Task Team and redirecting 121 active investigation dockets to the office of National Deputy Commissioner Lieutenant-General Shadrack Sibiya, where they have allegedly been neutralised.

Ramaphosa is expected to address the nation on Sunday at 19:00, following outcry from various parties on the allegations made by Mkhwanazi.

The Gift of the Givers wants Ramaphosa to fully support Mkhwanazi, as he has previously done when he called for the establishment of a task team to deal with political killings in KwaZulu-Natal.

"This should also be an objective of the National Dialogue: to listen to those in the know and implement critical decisions instantly, removing bureaucracy, red tape and intentional obstruction in the interest of our citizens and good governance," the organisation said.

The Gift of the Givers gave its support for Mkhwanazi, describing him as representing "everything that is right" in the South African Police Service (Saps).

"Given the current budgetary constraints, it is imperative that as patriotic citizens and corporates, we give our unrestricted support to Lieutenant-General Mkhwanazi in the fight against crime, South Africa's number one enemy, which has a major influence on preventing economic growth and development," Gift of the Givers said.

Support for Mkhwanazi, is support for the Saps, the organisation said, while warning against vilifying all members of the Saps owing to underperformance.

"…to generalise and paint an entire institution with the same negativity is disingenuous, demoralising, unjust and unfair to those men and women in blue who put their lives on the line, who strive to serve with distinction, in spite of being under resourced, unprotected, outgunned and unmatched by sophisticated criminal networks with the most advanced technology at their behest," Gift of the Givers said.

It called for various interventions such as upskilling and empowering Saps personnel and providing new crime fighting technology and communication systems.

"…or by repairing hundreds of dysfunctional vehicles, arranging counselling and motivational workshops for burnt-out personnel, supplying advanced protective wear, providing information," it said.

The Gift of the Givers also wants Ramaphosa to find ways to rebuild trust in the Saps, by modifying attitudes and behaviour between the police and citizens, which it believes will increase cooperation and assist in intelligence gathering.

"Our greatest success in dealing with criminals will be determined through a united stand as one entity, for the country does not belong to the government, it belongs to us all collectively, we own it, respect it, nurture it, protect it, enhance it and defend it together," the Gift of the Givers stated.