Power Problems

One longstanding predicate of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East -- that America's military presence in the Persian Gulf region protects the free flow of oil -- is false. That is according to University of Pennsylvania professor Robert Vitalis, along with a growing academic literature scrutinizing the claim. Because of the global nature of the oil market, even infamous past disruptions, such as the so-called Arab oil embargo of 1973, have not had as significant an effect as commonly believed. This erroneous basis for U.S. strategy, Vitalis explains, also justifies a misguided emphasis on Washington's close relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, among other costly consequences. 

• Robert Vitalis bio
• Robert Vitalis, Oilcraft: The Myths of Scarcity and Security That Haunt U.S. Energy Policy, (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2020).

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The renewed debate in Washington over U.S. foreign policy reflects changing attitudes in public opinion. George Mason University professor and Cato Senior Fellow A. Trevor Thrall discusses how generational differences are changing views on U.S. military activism and America's global role. Millennials and younger people generally support international engagement while rejecting excessive military intervention. 

Show Notes

• A. Trevor Thrall bio
• A. Trevor Thrall and Erik Goepner, (2021), “The New Faces of Internationalism: How Generational Change Is Reshaping American Foreign Policy Attitudes,” Cato Working Paper, Cato Institute, Washington, DC.

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Jessica Trisko Darden joins John Glaser to discuss how U.S. foreign aid tends to support state violence and coercion. Economic and military aid often helps undemocratic regimes secure and sustain their power and carry out human rights abuses. Even aid conditioned on good behavior and respect for democratic norms is highly fungible and often misused in ways that contradict the stated intentions of U.S. policymakers. Dr. Darden discusses the three case studies she details in her book to draw those conclusions.

• Jessica Trisko Darden bio
• Jessica Trisko Darden,Aiding and Abetting: U.S. Foreign Assistance and State Violence, (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2020).

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1. Daniel S. Markey bio
2. Daniel S. Markey, China's Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia, (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020).

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Dominic Tierney, associate professor at Swarthmore College, explains how the “negativity bias” affects international relations. Negativity bias causes threat inflation, leads policymakers to maintain failing policies out of loss aversion, and produces misconceptions that make conflict more likely. Biden administration policies towards Iran, Afghanistan, and China are discussed, among other issues. 

Show Notes

• Dominic Tierney bio
• Dominic D.P. Johnson and Dominic Tierney, “Bad World: Negativity Bias in International Politics,” International Security 43, no. 3 (Winter 2018/19): 96-140.

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Former career diplomat Elizabeth Shackelford recounts how her experiences working for the State Department caused her to grow disillusioned with U.S. diplomatic policy. She emphasizes the advantages of adopting a more diplomatic rather than militarized foreign policy and offers policy prescriptions to help make that transition.

Show Notes

• Elizabeth Shackelford bio
• Elizabeth Shackelford, The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age, (New York City: Hachette Book Group, 2020).

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Why has international war become more uncommon and unpopular since World War II? Sure some states still meddle in others’ civil wars or launch cyber offensives, but overall the world is experiencing an unprecedented era of peace. Some international relations experts claim that U.S. adventurist foreign policy has held off international war. This week’s guest, Ohio State University political scientist and Cato’s own John Mueller, argues against that premise in his new book The Stupidity of War: American Foreign Policy and the Case for Complacency. He says that after two world wars, most people have realized that there are better solutions to disagreements than international war.

Show Notes

• John Mueller bio:https://www.cato.org/people/john-mueller  
• John Mueller, The Stupidity of War: American Foreign Policy and the Case for Complacency, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2021). 

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Geopolitical changes in East Asia call for new ideas to inform much needed policy reforms. Jessica J. Lee from the Quincy Institute joins John Glaser to discuss how policymakers can approach a rising China, traditional East Asian allies, and a nuclear North Korea.

Show Notes

• Jessica J. Lee bio
• Michael D. Swain, Jessica J. Lee and Rachel Esplin Odell, “Toward an Inclusive & Balanced Order: A New U.S. Strategy in East Asia,” Quincy Institute Paper No. 5, January 2021.

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What is the future of conservative foreign policy? The Republican Party is divided on many issues of national security as it searches for a new direction in the post-Trump age. The American Conservative senior editor Daniel Larison joins the show.

Show Notes

• Daniel Larison bio: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/author/daniel-larison/
• Daniel Larison, “Where Do Conservatives Go On Foreign Policy,” The American Conservative, December 16, 2020.
• John Glaser, “Was Trump a Realist or a Wrecking Ball?” Empire Has No Clothes, podcast audio, January 24, 2021.

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Is the United States on course for a new Cold War with China? Campbell Craig tells John Glaser that there may be a chance to cooperate and ease tensions with Beijing. They discuss how changes in the U.S. military budget, threat perception, nuclear posturing, alliances, and domestic politics can help the two superpowers avoid a potential standoff.

ShowNotes

1. Campbell Craig bio:https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/people/view/542163-craig-campbell
2. Campbell Craig and Fredrik Logevall, America’s Cold War: The Politics of Insecurity, (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009).

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