Power Shifts

With Ben Houchen, Mayor of Tees Valley and Member of the House of Lords

British politics just had its vibe checked—and the result? Reform UK is on the rise, the Tories are reeling, and Labour can’t seem to land a punch. So we called in one of the few Conservatives still winning elections to help us make sense of it all: Ben Houchen, the three-time elected Mayor of Tees Valley and a straight-talker from the Red Wall.

Joined by co-hosts Andrew Percy and Joseph Lavoie, this episode breaks down:

• Why Reform’s surge feels like Brexit 2.0

• How Labour can win the headlines but still lose the vote

• Whether we’re heading for a three-party system—or a Tory wipeout

• The realignment that’s reshaping British (and Canadian) conservatism

• What it’ll take to rebuild a competitive Conservative Party—from the vibes up

Plus:

🏗 Ben argues the future of the Conservative Party lies in blue-collar realignment, not home counties nostalgia.

🚨 Why a non-aggression pact with Reform is a non-starter—and what that means for the Tory path back.

📣 And Andrew tells the infamous story of (almost) endorsing Ben’s Labour opponent on live TV.

If you’re trying to decode the future of right-of-centre politics on both sides of the Atlantic, this is your must-listen episode.

After losing a chunk of our life to technical issues trying to interview our Australian colleagues, we gave up and came at you with a cheeky half from a suspicious hotel room. We cover:1. Carney White House Visit2. UK/India Trade Deal3. UK Local ElectionsAnd on tap, we enjoy a Boréale IPA du Nord-Est with Krush Hops

In this deep-dive episode, we welcome The Hub’s Sean Speer for a sweeping post-election conversation that looks well beyond the seat count. Together, we unpack what the results signal about Canada’s shifting political map—and the governing challenges that come next.

We cover:

• Why Canada may be settling into a two-party system—and what that means for the NDP and voter coalitions

• The trap of 42%: Why Conservatives need to stop relying on vote splits and start expanding their base

• Is tone the final frontier? Why Pierre Poilievre’s ceiling may be more cultural than ideological

• The Conservative Party’s urban problem—and why cracking cities like Toronto and Vancouver may be the next big project

• Whether Carney’s coalition—ranging from Bay Street to campus leftists—is governable, not just winnable

• What a Trump second term could mean for Canadian sovereignty on trade, tariffs, and foreign policy

• And how regional tensions, from Western alienation to a resurgent Parti Québécois, could define the next chapter

Guest: Sean Speer – Editor-at-Large, ⁠The Hub

Andrew and Joseph unpack the early takeaways from Canada’s federal vote—before the full dust settles. With Dead Frog and Backcountry brews in hand, we reflect on what just happened, what didn’t happen, and what we got wrong.

We tackle:

• Why the Liberals’ minority win is both change and more of the same
• How early voting and older demographics gave the Liberals their edge
• The collapse of the NDP and the myth of a youthquake
• The case for Pierre Poilievre staying on—and the case against
• Why Conservatives can’t afford to overcorrect… or under-learn
• Whether we’re already on the clock for the next electionPlus, Andrew vents about the “low-drama” vote counting process in Canada compared to the high-stakes theatre of a British election night.

On Tap:

• Pepper Lime Lager – Dead Frog Brewery
• Dale Dug a Hole Pale Ale – Backcountry Brewing

Next episode: We go deeper with The Hub’s Sean Spear for a full post-mortem on the election and what it means for Ottawa, the opposition, and the policy road ahead.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Election Night Reflections

00:05 Post-Election Reflections

03:01 Election Results Breakdown

06:06 Voter Dynamics and Expectations

08:54 Conservative Party's Future

12:00 Leadership and Party Dynamics

15:03 Youth Vote and Turnout Trends

18:12 Final Thoughts on Election Outcomes

24:05 Leadership Dynamics in Canadian Politics

28:19 The Future of Elections and Political Strategy

30:51 Campaigns: The Importance of Tone and Local Candidates

34:12 Election Day Experiences: A Comparative Perspective

40:03 Tasting Notes

The 2025 federal election isn’t even over yet—and already, the next political era is taking shape.In today’s episode of Power Shifts, I share eight key observations about how this campaign has reshaped Canada’s political terrain.These aren’t predictions. They’re the deeper dynamics already at work—forces that will define the next four years, no matter who wins.We cover: • Why the 2025 campaign became a referendum on leadership, not policy • How “change without chaos” became the ballot question • The shifting fault lines for the Conservative coalition • What the NDP’s collapse really signals about future influence • Why early voting is shortening the campaign cycle • What to expect in the first 100 days under a Carney government • The growing pressure of Western alienation • How the old political playbook is breaking down—and what smart organizations should do nowThe bottom line:The final vote count will matter.But the bigger story—the one that matters for your strategy—has already started.If you want to get ahead of the next four years, it starts by understanding the power shifts already underway.

We sit down with veteran strategist Mike McDonald for a sharp, beer-fueled breakdown of the federal campaign—with a special focus on British Columbia.

We start with a big-picture analysis of the national race: Is this election a true battle of leadership vibes? Has Mark Carney neutralized the ideological contrast with Poilievre by simply being less of a liability? And why does the rise in advance polling numbers say more about convenience than political momentum?

We then dig into the courts’ growing role in settling cultural debates, using the UK’s recent ruling on gender and sex as a case study in political cowardice and institutional offloading. If you advise boards or manage reputation risk, you’ll want to hear he implications for private sector policy-making.

Also on the docket: Why the Trump administration’s ban on synthetic food dyes isn’t as contradictory as it seems—and what it tells us about modern populism’s ideological flexibility.

Finally, we tap into Mike’s expertise on the BC landscape: What’s behind the NDP’s collapse? Could Jagmeet Singh lose his seat? And why might BC be the reason this race ends in a majority—or doesn’t?

This one’s packed with analysis, beer reviews, and real talk about the subtle mechanics of modern campaigns. Pour a Kölsch and tune in.

Featuring:

• Mike McDonald (Hotel Pacifico, former Chief of Staff to BC Premier)

• Joseph Lavoie

• Andrew Percy

On Tap:

• Tofino Brewing’s Glowing Embers

• Brassneck’s Klutz Kölsch

Next week, join us for our post-election breakdown with The Hub’s Sean Speer.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome

03:57 Federal Election Insights

06:02 UK Supreme Court Ruling on Gender and Its Implications

14:38 US Health Secretary's Ban on Synthetic Food Dyes

19:37 Mike McDonald

22:36 The Current Political Landscape in Canada

25:31 The Role of the NDP and BC's Unique Political Environment

28:20 The Future of the NDP and Liberal Party Dynamics

31:34 Conservative Strategies and Voter Appeal

34:29 The Impact of Early Voting and Turnout Predictions

37:31 Election Night Predictions and Key Battlegrounds

40:37 The Influence of Regional Politics on National Elections

43:32 Final Thoughts on Leadership and Future Directions

I deconstruct attack ads from the Conservative and Liberal parties in Canada, analyzing their strategies, emotional triggers, and the effectiveness of their messaging.

We invite fan favourite Janice Stein back to the show with Farhaan Ladhani to talk about foreign interference in Canadian elections. 

What is it, exactly? What implications does it have for voters? What impact does it have on the spread of polarized political views? 

Andrew and Joseph also touch on global economic concerns and the rising sentiment of Western separatism in Canada.This week's beer? Ostro, by Superflux and Four Winds.

Here's a link to one of the stories we referenced on the show:⁠ A network of X accounts is targeting Canada ahead of the election - The Logic ⁠

Chapters

00:00 Intro and Beer Selection

02:36 Issues Scan: Western Separatism in Canada

09:46 Issues Scan: US Market Fallout to Tariffs

14:36 Issues Scan: UK Tariff Response

19:17 What exactly is foreign interference?

28:11 Why does China interfere?

33:51 To what end?

38:12 Government Response and Public Trust

42:50 Weaknesses in the Canadian Political System

44:39 The Impact of Foreign Interference on Elections

47:44 Understanding the Dynamics of Influence and Advocacy

51:42 The Complexity of Foreign Influence in Democratic Systems

56:07 Introduction and Personal Updates56:10 Wrap-Up and Beer Tasting Notes

Former Cabinet Minister James Moore joins us to assess the state of the federal election, and the contrasting leadership styles of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. And what the NDP collapse means for the choice voters face in the April 28 election.

Chapters

00:00 Beers, Banter, and Things to Watch

21:00 Interview with James Moore

27:01 The Current Political Landscape

30:03 The Two-Horse Race: Carney vs. Poilievre

32:49 The Impact of Historical Context on Current Politics

36:06 The Influence of Trump on Canadian Conservatism

39:20 The Threat of Trump and Canadian Identity

40:57 The Conservative Party's Challenge

43:20 Desire for Change vs. Stability

46:21 Campaign Dynamics and Candidate Experience

47:53 First 100 Days

50:20 Coalition Challenges and Political Strategy

Joseph Lavoie explores how Ford strategically navigated regulatory challenges by embracing stricter emissions standards ahead of federal requirements, showcasing the importance of regulatory foresight and compliance leadership in the automotive industry. The analysis highlights Ford's proactive approach, the political backlash faced, and the eventual shift in the industry's stance towards stricter regulations.Takeaways- The most successful companies shape regulation, not just react to it.- Ford's compliance leadership was a strategic move for long-term planning.- The Rogue Four's agreement with California was unprecedented in the industry.- Ford's decision was driven by a need for regulatory certainty.- Political backlash was significant but Ford maintained its stance.- Ford's early compliance influenced future regulatory standards.- The automotive industry shifted towards stricter emissions standards post-2020 election.- Ford's actions established a new baseline for responsible industry behavior.- Regulatory foresight allowed Ford to lead rather than follow.- Ford's strategy turned regulation into an opportunity for innovation.