Predicting Sports with Michael Fiddle

By Michael FiddleSports News Sports News Basketball

Predicting Sports with Michael Fiddle episodes

September 10 Prediction Market Commercials | Strategy Question | Rams/49ers Check-In
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) takes a look at a few unhinged commercials from the prediction and sports betting space that caught his attention. He also tackles an interesting question about betting in a state without legal sportsbooks. Finally, Mike checks in on Rams vs. 49ers for Thursday.
(0:00) Intro
(4:22) Prediction Market Commercials
(29:27) Strategy Question
(1:06:52) Rams/49ers Check In
(1:14:50) WHOP Bets Summary
Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)
NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4Z7VTX0QDW00RJDM6M
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For full access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
1 hr 18 min
September 07 LeBron Joins Polymarket | NFL Week 1 Best Bets and Player Props
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the latest NFL betting market and revisits the Week 1 lines and player props worth actioning. He also discusses LeBron James joining Polymarket and what his involvement could mean for the growing prediction market space.
(0:00) Intro
(1:39) LeBron James-Polymarket Partnership
(18:01) NFL Main Markets
(30:04) FanDuel (+EV NFL Player Props)
(31:37) DraftKings
(34:02) BetMGM
(34:34) Bet365
(38:14) BetRivers
(41:15) Caesars
(44:12) WHOP Bets Summary
Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)
NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4Z7VTX0QDW00RJDM6M
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For full access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
47 min
September 02 August Betting Stats Recap
How did we do in August? Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down August’s betting results, reviews the secondary metrics, and forecasts what the numbers tell us heading into September. We’ll also look at what worked, what didn’t, and where we can find even more betting value going forward.
(0:00) Intro
(6:24) Primary & Secondary Metrics
(7:56) ROI vs xROI
(12:54) Why CLV rate was slightly down from my norm
Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)
NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4Z7VTX0QDW00RJDM6M
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
30 min
August 31 The Power of Power Rankings w/ Ed Feng
How much can a great power rank system really tell you about a betting market? We sit down with The PowerRank founder Ed Feng to dive into one of the most powerful tools in sports betting and uncover how sharp bettors can use ratings to gain an edge.
We’ll explore what separates a truly useful power rating from the rest and where even the best ratings can go wrong. If you want to understand how some of the sharpest handicappers see the market, this is an interview you won’t want to miss.
(0:00) Intro
(1:40) Power Rankings Defined
(11:07) Strengths as a Handicapping Tool
(16:06) Key Adjustments Made
(23:21) Any Other Ratings System You Rely On?
(29:19) Factors That Go Into Making a Bet
(34:16) When Do You Break Away from Your Preseason Priors?
(41:36) Most Important Stat Sets as Building Blocks
(46:46) Floor and Ceiling: Trevor Lawrence
(47:57) Floor and Ceiling: Joe Burrow
(54:35) Other NFL Players Higher/Lower On
Sign up for Ed's newsletter at: ThePowerRank.com
Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)
NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4Z7VTX0QDW00RJDM6M
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
1 hr
August 28 Early NFL Week 1 Breakdown and Best Bets
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the early NFL Week 1 slate. He looks at the biggest matchups, early lines, and sharp betting angles worth actioning before the market moves.
(0:00) Intro
(0:44) NFL Related Announcements
(6:25) NE Patriots @ SEA Seahawks
(8:39) SF 49ers @ LA Rams
(10:43) BUF Bills @ HOU Texans
(14:29) CHI Bears @ CAR Panthers
(14:38) ATL Falcons @ PIT Steelers
(15:56) NY Jets @ TEN Titans
(18:35) NO Saints @ DET Lions
(23:49) DEN Broncos @ KC Chiefs
(25:53) CON Sun @ IND Fever
(26:27) WHOP Bets Summary
Countdown Song: "Get Down On It" (Artist: Kool and The Gang)
NFL Survivor Contest Signup Link: https://contests.app.splashsports.com/contest/contest_01M145KA4Z7VTX0QDW00RJDM6M
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
29 min
August 26 Way Too Early NBA Futures w/ Drew Johnson
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) is joined by professional poker player Drew Johnson (@RantingJohnson) to talk about some way-too-early NBA Futures for the upcoming season. They break down the team win totals and player props they believe are worth getting in on now before the market moves.
(0:00) Intro
(12:21) Honorable Mentions
(23:49) 6th Man of the Year
(29:17) Assists Leader
(32:59) UTA Jazz Win Total
(37:06) DAL Mavericks Win Total
(42:27) CHA Hornets Win Total
(47:53) 6th Man of the Year
(55:05) Other Honorable Mentions
Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
1 hr 6 min
August 24 MLB Betting By The Numbers | WNBA Best Bets
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) dives into the latest MLB betting results in the WHOP. We’ll review the stats and see what the market is telling us about the season so far.
Then, Mike breaks down his favorite WNBA bets and the spots he’s looking to attack on today’s slate. Get the best prices and market insights you need before placing your action.
(0:00) Intro
(11:14) MLB Betting Stats
(23:32) GS Valkyries @ MIN Lynx
(25:23) ATL Dream @ LA Sparks
(27:13) CHI Sky @ CON Sun
(28:19) POR Fire @ DAL Wings
(29:12) WAS Mystics @ PHX Mercury
(31:36) WHOP Bets Summary
Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
37 min
August 21 Ranking WNBA Head Coaches | WNBA Best Bets
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) ranks every WNBA head coach based on their performance so far this season. He looks at which coaches are getting the most out of their teams and which ones may be holding their teams back.
Mike also breaks down his best bets, highlighting the spots he believes offer the most value. As always, he brings a betting-focused look at the games with actionable angles for tonight.
(0:00) Intro
(2:52) Superstar Tier
(9:58) A Tier
(15:15) B Tier
(21:59) C Tier
(32:42) F Tier
(42:25) WHOP Bets Summary
Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
50 min
August 19 Actionable Bets in the WNBA | Wed-Thur Slate Breakdown
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) breaks down the WNBA slates for Wednesday and Thursday. He dives into market movement, sharp betting angles, and best bets through the lens of advanced gambling strategies.
(0:00) Intro
(3:07) TOR Tempo @ WAS Mystics
(8:08) MIN Lynx @ GS Valkyries
(13:05) IND Fever @ DAL Wings
(15:19) ATL Dream @ LA Sparks
(16:28) Board Review
(18:26) +EV Props with BetStamp Pro
(26:32) WHOP Bets Summary
Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
33 min
August 17 NFL Season-Long Player Props | More CLV Talk
Mike Fiddle (@FiddlesPicks) keeps the conversation going on closing line value (CLV) and why it matters when you're betting. He breaks down how CLV can help show whether you're making good bets over time.
Mike also looks ahead to the NFL season and talks about some season-long player props he likes. He shares his thoughts on where he sees value before the season gets started.
(0:00) Intro
(3:25) Sports Betting QnA
(28:58) NFL Season-Long Player Props
Countdown Song: "Rich Girl" (Artist: Hall and Oates)
Sign up FREE for The Advantage Sports Betting Newsletter at https://fiddlespicks.substack.com/
For all access to Mike's picks: https://whop.com/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/the-advantage-sports-betting-picks/
Need a PolyMarket account? Here is a referral link for instant access and skip the waitlist: https://polymarket.com/?r=MichaelFiddle
Get Access to the same Odds Screen that Fiddle uses by signing up for BetStamp Pro. Use the link: https://betstamp.com/fiddle to apply.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
48 min