Pro Politics with Zac McCrary

Nathan Gonzales is the Editor and Publisher of Inside Elections, one of the foundations of American political analysis, and a frequent presence talking and writing about politics on TV and in print. In this conversation, recorded two weeks after Election Day 2024, Nathan weighs in on the headlines from the '24 campaign, surprises and lessons learned, goes deep on the Presidential, Senate, and House races, looks ahead to the 2026 midterms, & much more.

IN THIS EPISODE

Nathan's big picture headlines coming out of Election 2024...

Was 2024 simply an anti-inflation, anti-status quo election?

The role of "collective amnesia" in the 2024 elections...

Do Democrats have a "woke" problem?

Why cultural attacks on Democrats packed more punch in 2024 than in other recent elections?

Why the "fascism" critique of Trump may have fallen flat?

A savvy tactic from the Trump campaign that surprised Nathan...

Surprises in the exit polls...

Nathan's initial read on the likelihood of a whole-scale partisan "realignment"...

The story of the 2024 Senate races...

Nathan's take on the split Senate verdicts in AZ, MI, NV, and WI...

The one Senate race that was the most frustrating for Republicans...

Was the AZ Senate race a missed opportunity for Republicans?

Why PA was the one swing state Senate race that flipped from Blue to Red...

The two Senate races the party senate committees viewed dramatically differently...

Nathan's initial early analysis on the 2026 Senate map, including thoughts on the Senate retirement watch...

Headlines from the 2024 House elections...

Early handicapping the 2026 House races...

Will court cases or redistricting impact the 2026 House playing field?

The one House race Nathan was most interested in following...

Stories about Tucker Carlson, Robert Novak, the Capital Gang and more from Nathan's first job in politics as a CNN assistant producer in the early 2000s...

& more!

[Originally released 11/22]

Maggie Haberman is, of course, the Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter who's covered the political rise of Donald Trump for the New York Times...and her book, CONFIDENCE MAN: The Making of Donald Trump & The Breaking of America became an immediate best seller. In this conversation, Maggie dives into all things Trump...from his formative influences in the New York City of the 70s and 80s, to his political ascent, time in the White House, her take on the likelihood of another Trump run, what a Trump White House restoration would look like...and much more from perhaps the most authoritative voice on the Trump political phenomenon.

 IN THIS EPISODE…

Maggie breaks down the influences that explain Trump’s political persona…

The member of Congress with whom has had a decades-long feud…

Maggie talks Trump’s ethos of “hate as a civic good”…

Why Trump never wanted to be Mayor of New York City…

Maggie talks the rise of Trump as a credible candidate in 2015…

How Trump leveraged Twitter so successfully…

Maggie on the connection between Trump and the National Enquirer…

How Trump has recently lost allies among the conservative media…

Why Trump as the “deal maker” fell flat in the White House…

Maggie’s thoughts on Trump’s various legal entanglements, old and new…

How Maggie thinks about the challenge of covering candidates who lie…

Maggie’s instincts on a Trump 2024 campaign…

The faces Maggie would expect to see around Trump in a second term…

What it’s like to have 1-on-1 conversations with Trump…

What’s surprised Maggie most about Trump’s behavior over the past year…

The status of Trump relationships with names like Giuliani, McConnell, Bannon, Roger Stone...

Some of Maggies favorite books and authors covering NYC politics...

AND avenging angels, Bill Barr, Wayne Barrett, birtherism, Mike Bloomberg, E. Jean Carroll, catch-and-kill, the Central Park Jogger, Hillary Clinton, Michael Cohen, Roy Cohn, James Comey, conspiracy theories, convention speeches, covfefe, Andrew Cuomo, Mario Cuomo, Ron DeSantis, the Dobbs decisions, Meade Esposito,  the favor economy, Fox News, Stanley Friedman, Ric Grenell, Sean Hannity, instinctive racial paranoia, Andrew Kirtzman, Ed Koch, Jared Kushner, the Lavender Scare, Rush Limbaugh, low-interest federal loans, Donald Manes, John McCain, McCarthy acolytes, Mark Meadows, Andrew Meier, Robert Morgenthau, Rupert Murdoch, Muslim bans, Jack Newfield, NewsMax, Richard Nixon, OAN, George Pataki, Kash Patel, David Pecker, permanent enemies, Jeanine Pirro, Vladimir Putin, John Ratcliffe, rejecting objective reality, Seth Rich, rubber chicken dinners, Eric Schneiderman, Doug Schoen, Time Magazine, transactional media, Allen Weisselberg, white noise…. & more!

[Initially Released 11/07/23]

Patrick Ruffini, pollster at Echelon Strategies, returns to talk about his new book PARTY OF THE PEOPLE - on the transition of the Republican Party from being dominated by wealthy, suburban white voters to a more blue-collar and increasingly-multi-racial coalition. In this conversation, Patrick lays out the data behind these shifts, what is driving the GOP's new-found success with blue-collar voters, why this movement came as a surprise to many, the balance of economic vs. cultural priorities, how Latino/AAPI/Black voters are increasingly persuadable audiences in elections, and expectations as to how these shifts will continue to define American politics for the foreseeable future.

IN THIS EPISODE

Patrick lays out the core thesis of Party of the People...

Patrick's favorite data points that illustrate the changing face of the GOP...

Patrick's take on the role of "educational attainment" in changing voting patterns...

Patrick gives a quick tutorial on when and how Democrats have historically been the party of working-class Americans...

How flawed 2012 exit polls have contributed to shifting party coalitions more than a decade later...

Patrick's take on how the "In This House..." yard signs unwittingly speak to tensions within the Democratic coalition...

Economic vs cultural drivers of voter behavior...

Missteps and missed GOP opportunities from the trifecta control of government in 2017 and 2018...

Mining recent data among Hispanic voters...

What Patrick learned about border communities on a trip to the Rio Grande Valley...

Why Lester Chang is important...

Why Black voter behavior has been more stable than Latino and Asian voters...

Patrick's take on the growing segment of biracial and multi-racial Americans...

The impact of free trade and foreign policy on changing partisan coalitions...

What Patrick learned in the process of writing his first book...

AND 7:3 coalitional splits, anti-globalization sentiments, Joe Biden, blurbs, Brexit, George W. Bush, census buckets, charts and data, Hillary Clinton, Nate Cohn, Thomas Dewey, Tom Edsall, Ryan Enos, existential demographic crisis, fading historical patterns, faint echoes, frontier mentalities, the Great Recession, the green transition, Hamiltonian tendencies, illiberal populism, instinctive hawks, Andrew Jackson, jettisoning first principles, Chryl Laird, majority popular tendencies, mercantile progress, the New Deal, Barack Obama, Mike Podhorzer, Ronald Reagan, the Republican autopsy, rivalrous groups, Mitt Romney, sheepskin effects, David Shor, social taboos, Starr County, Steadfast Democrats, Harry Truman, Donald Trump, the UAW, Ismail White, white phenomenons....& more!

With just hours until polling places open for the November 5th presidential election, this week's guest is analyst Amy Walter to provide her insights and instincts heading into Election Day. The editor and publisher of The Cook Report with Amy Walter, Amy has been a constant presence writing and thinking about US elections for nearly three decades. In this conversation, she goes deep on her thoughts on the presidential race, her take on both the Senate and House, and narratives she expects to emerge post-election. This is a smart and expansive preview from a top analyst on the eve of an incredibly competitive and consequential election. 

IN THIS EPISODE

Amy starts with her initial table-setter on expectations in the presidential race...

What is Donald Trump's ceiling of support? 

Rationales for both a Harris win and a Trump win...

Is this the closest presidential race 3-4 days out that Amy has covered?

Amy's theory that, for many voters, the presidential election boils down to "controlling risk"...

Why are we in an era of consistently 50-50 races?

Which candidate is more likely to over-perform the polls?

The one Rust Belt and one Sun Belt state Amy feels will be the most predictive of the overall result?

Why early vote analysis is like shaking gift boxes before Christmas?

What is different in Trump's 2024 campaign compared to '16 and '20?

Amy's take on the truncated Harris campaign and its closing message?

How both Democrats and Republicans would respond to a presidential loss?

Amy's range of expectations for the Senate and the race that would be most predictive of which side is having a good night...

How the NRSC has tried to avoid mistakes from the '22 cycle...

How the issue of abortion could be a stumbling block for a good Republican night in the Senate?

Amy's take on late-breaking Senate races in Texas and Nebraska...

Amy returns to her roots as a "House homer" to gauge the state of play in the House...

Amy's prediction of when the news desks will call the race and declare a President-Election...

& more!

This is a different type of episode this week as I have borrowed the audio from a panel I was part of last Thursday (10/24/24) to discuss the upcoming 2024 elections. This panel is hosted by the government affairs firm Husch Blackwell Strategies, and the video link can be accessed here. Moderating the discussion is Husch Blackwell CEO Andy Blunt and I'm also joined by election analyst Jim Ellis - whose background includes working for the GOP House leadership and, for decades, has been an analyst and advisor to corporations and trade associations.

The discussion was recorded last Thursday and covers a lot of ground...the current state of the presidential race, the different electoral college paths available to both candidates, what can be gleaned from the early vote, what to expect in the House and Senate races, recent polling trends, late-breaking surprise races, the prediction markets, and much more.

Forrest Claypool has one of the most impressive and varied resumes in politics...early campaign and operative work with David Axelrod and Rahm Emanuel, two-time Chief of Staff to the mayor of Chicago, opposing Barack Obama in mock debates in his 2004 Senate race, running the Chicago Park District, Chicago Transit Authority, and Chicago Board of Education, elected to the Cook County Board, intense races against the Chicago machine, and now author of the new book - The Daley Show - about the 20+ year tenure of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley. In this conversation, Forrest talks his path from small town Southern, IL to breaking into politics to his time running major city departments to being an integral part of the Chicago machine before running against the machine a few years later and deep into the last 40+ years of Chicago politics through the impact of the mayoralty of Richard M. Daley.

IN THIS EPISODE...

Forrest's roots in Southern Illinois and the state politics of his youth in the 60s and 70s...

Forrest connects with David Axelrod at the start of the Axelrod rise as a national media consultant...

The x-factor that made Axelrod such an effective political consultant...

One of Forrest's favorite races he worked on as a political consultant...

Forrest plays the role of Alan Keyes in Barack Obama's 2004 debate prep...

Forrest's initial impressions of the 1990s Barack Obama who started making the rounds in Chicago politics...

Forrest remembers the Rahm Emanuel he first worked with in the mid-1980s...

Of the numerous positions he held around Chicago and Cook County politics, which did Forrest find most exciting...

Why Forrest turned down an almost sure-thing, safe seat in Congress...

What he learned when he ran for Cook County office himself...

The Forrest Claypool 101 on effectively running organizations...

His evolution as a foot soldier of the Daley machine to a prominent machine critic and opponent...

What made Forrest write his new book, The Daley Show, about the 20+ year mayoralty of Richard M. Daley...

How the original Mayor Daley, Richard J. Daley, dominated Chicago politics for decades...

The story of Richard M. Daley in the political wilderness after the death of his father, and how he rose to the mayor's office via an "outside game"...

Details on how the Chicago mob controlled an entire city ward into the 1980s and 90s...

The importance of "abandoned cars" in running a city...

The most important accomplishment of the Mayor Richard M. Daley era...

The biggest "missed opportunity" from Daley's time as Mayor...

The "most brilliant ploy" Forrest saw from Mayor Daley during the 1990s wars over Chicago-area airports...

The story from Forrest's first race in Cook County, with his opponent trying to convince voters that Forrest (who is white) was a Black candidate...

How far one has to go back in Chicago politics to find election-counting interference...

Forrest's take on why Chicago is no longer "a city that works"...

Forrest's favorite story of the influential Chicago columnist, Mike Royko...

Forrest's must-see recommendations around Chicago for political junkies...

AND AKPD, Yasser Arafat, Thomas Barnes, Evan Bayh, Michael Bilandic, Rod Blagojevich, Jane Byrne, Jimmy Carter, council wars, Fred Cowan, Andrew Cuomo, John D'Arco, Richard Dennis, economic invalids, eye-glazing agencies, Paul Findley, Newt Gingrich, The Grateful Dead, iron-handed bravado, Brandon Johnson, Martin Kennelly, Martin Luther King, Lori Lightfoot, Machiavellian power plays, Ron Madison, Millennium Park, The Rolling Stones, John Stroger, Ed Vrdolyak, & more!

Mark Udall, former Democratic US Senator and House member from Colorado, comes from the famed Udall family of the Mountain West - including his father, Congressman Mo Udall, and uncle, former Interior Secretary Stewart Udall under both JFK & LBJ. But Mark Udall largely stayed away from politics until his mid 40s - having an entire career within the outdoor leadership organization Outward Bound. However, once he flipped the switch to politics, his ascent was rapid: elected to the Colorado State House in 1996, the US House in 1998, and the US Senate in 2008. In this conversation, Senator Udall talks his famous political family, his own early relationship to politics, and memories of 20+ years in elected office that span both highs and lows - with great stories and insights from someone with one of the most unique arcs in American politics.

IN THIS EPISODE

Growing up between Tucson, AZ and Washington DC...

Lessons about public service learned from his mother...

Growing up in a political family of with a Congressman for a father and Cabinet Secretary for an uncle...

The political legacy of his father, Mo Udall....

The famous friendship between John McCain and Mo Udall...

Old Mountain West connections among the Udalls, Goldwaters, and Romneys...

The Udall brothers' opinions of both Presidents Johnson and Kennedy...

Mark works New Hampshire for his father's 1976 presidential campaign...

The 20-year career he had before entering politics...

Running for office for the first time in his late 40s...

Mark rolls out his Bill Clinton impression...

What surprised him most - both positives and negatives - about serving in Congress...

The behind-the-scenes machinations of why he didn't run for Senate in 2004 and did run in 2008...

Why he was caught flatfooted in his 2014 Senate re-election...

Memories of some of the most intense moments on the floor of the House and Senate...

The now-infamous role the issue of abortion played in his 2014 race against Cory Gardner...

Why he was one of the few members of Congress to list "no religious affiliation" in his bio...

The current projects he's most interested in...

The Mark Udall recommendations for traveling through Colorado...

AND 50 mile hikes, Michael Bennet, Sherry Boehlert, Hale Boggs, Jimmy Carter, Grover Cleveland, Rocky Colavito, Democratic bankers, Denver Nuggets, Don't Ask Don't Tell, William O. Douglas, Fort Wayne Pistons, James Garfield, Gabrielle Giffords, Gary Hart, Jay Inslee, Bobby Kennedy, David King, Lady Bird Johnson, Dick Lamm, John Larson, Monica Lewinsky, Bob McNamara, John McCormack, mercurial marriages, George Miller, Minneapolis Lakers, Minnie Minoso, the NBL, the NRA, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Barack Obama, Tom Osborne, Outward Bound, Bill Owens, Nancy Pelosi, plural marriage, Harry Reid, Ranger Rogers, Roy Romer, George Romney, John Salazar, Ken Salazar, Pat Schroeder, Herb Score, Sonia Sotomayor, tough cookies, Mark Uterus, Tim Wirth, Willard Wirtz & more!

Caleb Smith may be the only political operative who's worked for three consecutive US House Speakers. During over a decade on Capitol Hill, he worked with Speakers Boehner, Ryan, and McCarthy. In this conversation, Caleb talks his path to politics from managing a legislative race in small-town Kentucky to working in some of the most prime real estate at the US Capitol building. He goes in-depth on his time on the Hill - being in the early wave of digital political staffers, joining Speaker Boehner's staff, strengths and weaknesses of the last 3 GOP Speakers, witnessing the rise of Trump from within the walls of the GOP establishment, starting Drive Public Affairs, and much more from a participant in some of the most important political moments of the 21st Century.

IN THIS EPISODE

Growing up in Paducah, KY at an important crossroads of American politics...

Why a young Caleb trekked to DC to attend the memorial for Ronald Reagan...

The skill set Caleb picked up managing a motorcycle shop between campaign gigs...

Caleb spends a year working for prominent pollster & focus group maven Frank Luntz...

Caleb manages a winning hometown Kentucky legislative race, the lone D to R legislative flip of the cycle...

Caleb comes to the Hill as a "new media director" among the digital political revolution...

Caleb's first impressions of working for Speaker John Boehner...

Caleb's "GOP House Conference 101" of how House Republicans operate...

The GOP member Caleb describes as a "snake in the grass" (it's not Matt Gaetz)...

What sold John Boehner on embracing digital politics..

John Boehner meets the pope...

Caleb's memories of the chaos during the Boehner to Ryan Speaker transition and why Caleb stuck it out with Ryan...

The "really unpleasant" first interaction Caleb had with Paul Ryan...

Caleb on the unique skill-set that made Paul Ryan an effective House leader...

Being a fly on the wall of the House GOP leadership during the 2015-2016 rise of Donald Trump...

Paul Ryan's immediate Election Night reaction upon Trump's surprise victory...

Inside the development of the 2017 "Trump Tax Cut" bill...

Paul Ryan's reaction when John McCain scuttled Obamacare Repeal...

Caleb's insights into the Donald Trump and Paul Ryan working relationship...

Why Ryan steps down as Speaker and why Caleb stayed with new House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy...

Caleb on McCarthy's habit of being a "risk taker"...

Inside the toppling of Speaker McCarthy...

Could Patrick McHenry have won the Speaker's Gavel...

Caleb on one of Speaker Pelosi's strongest qualities...

The controversial high-profile House member Caleb believes will be a future GOP Leader...

Junior members Caleb finds especially impressive...

Caleb on the fundamental difference between House Republicans and House Democrats...

Why Caleb started Drive Public Affairs a few months ago...

AND the American Conservative Union, American University, antiquated radio addresses, Sharron Angle, The Better Way Agenda, Stephanie Bice, Kevin Brady, Tim Burchett, George HW Bush, George W. Bush, CPAC, Dave Camp, Joe Cannon, Eric Cantor, The Capitol Rotunda, Centre College, Jason Chaffetz, Michael Cloud, country clubs vs. truck stops, cults of personality, Howard Dean, debating at Oxford, dial tests, Domino's Pizza, fall guys, famous smokers, fiscal cliffs, The Freedom Caucus, Matt Gaetz, Barry Goldwater, Jeb Hensarling, French Hill, Erin Houchin, Jack Kemp, Sue Lowden, Nancy Mace, John McCain, Mark Meadows, Steve Mnuchin, mopeds, Jack Nicklaus, normalizing ideas,  Ralph Norman, Rand Paul, Harry Reid, Marco Rubio, the SALT deduction, Tim Scott, sloven appearances, The Tonight Show.. & more!

Mark Jablonowski is the President and Chief Tech Officer of DS Political - one of the leading digital ad firms for Democratic campaigns and progressive causes. Mark's roots in campaign tech go back to 2004 and he was deeply involved in the Obama 2008 primary and general election digital innovations. In this conversation, Mark talks his own path to politics starting in Alaska to Maine to the Obama '08 Chicago HQ and continuing to be on the front lines of the digital political evolution. In addition to his own story, Mark gives his takes on digital best practices and trends on subjects as varied as connected television, questions campaigns should ask their digital vendor, the death of the cookie, AI concerns, and much more on an exploding sector within the political world.

IN THIS EPISODE

Mark grows up in Anchorage, Alaska...

Mark is drawn to politics through the 2004 Alaska Senate race...

What it looks like to head up the IT department of a 2004 US Senate race...

Mark's early tech interest and building his own computer as a teenager...

How Mark connects with the 2008 Obama primary campaign...working from NH to TX to PA to IN to Chicago HQ...

Working as Obama 2008 "IT Special Projects Director" and the tech innovations of the '08 Obama team... 

How Mark became President of the large digital firm, DSPolitical...

Mark's take on the common threads of what makes for a successful digital political firm...

The initiative of DS Political offering free digital ad inventory to down-ballot campaigns...

Mark's best practices on how campaigns should think about digital advertising...

The importance of "connected televisions" and being on "the biggest screen in the house"...

Misconceptions and unnecessary mistakes in the world of digital advertising...

Differences in Democratic vs. Republican digital approaches...

Insights into voters' digital habits and where to have the most impact...

The end of digital cookies which is changing the way digital politics operates...

Mark's concern about AI creating massive misinformation in digital ads...

The right type of people to succeed in digital politics...

Bryan Bennett is the Senior Director for Polling & Analytics at The Hub Project and a pollster for Navigator Research who recently spearheaded a 4,000 sample survey among voters 18-34. In this conversation, Bryan talks his path to politics and polling and goes deep on this new massive project among younger Americans. This data unearths new findings on how and where younger voters get their news, views toward both parties and policy priorities, gauging the presidential race both before and after the Biden transition to Harris, comparing 5 different polling methodologies to reach voters, and much more from this massive new trove of polling data among younger Americans.

IN THIS EPISODE

Bryan's roots outside of Austin, TX and how the 2000 election and Iraq War drew him to politics...

Why Bryan gravitated toward polling and his insight as to what makes for an effective political pollster...

How Bryan came to Navigator Research, and its mission in the public opinion sphere...

Some of the influential work Navigator Research has done over the past few years...

The origin of Navigator's project of a 4,000 sample poll of voters under age 35...

The seeming disconnect among younger voters between partisanship and policy preferences...

What Bryan learned by testing 5 different polling methodologies among younger voters...

What is unique about economic sentiments among younger voters...

Some of the most surprising findings in this trove of data...

What this data reveals about how and where younger voters get their news...

What the data showed about a Biden vs. Trump re-match and how it's different with Kamala Harris atop the Democratic ticket...

The set of issues younger voters most prioritize...

The potential for 2024 polling error among younger voters that Bryan is monitoring...

What recent Battleground polling reveals about the 2024 presidential race...

Upcoming Navigator Research projects Bryan is most excited about...

Bryan details the best way to enjoy a few days in Austin, TX...& much more!