Probable Causation

Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions.

“Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States” by Aurélie Ouss.

The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz.

"The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan.

"Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style" by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya.

"Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann.

"Local Government Dependence on Criminal Justice Revenue and Emerging Constraints" by Shannon R.Graham and Michael D.Makowsky.

"More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann.

"To Serve and Collect: The Fiscal and Racial Determinants of Law Enforcement" by Michael D. Makowsky, Thomas Stratmann, and Alex Tabarrok.

"Finders keepers: forfeiture laws, policing incentives, and local budgets" by Katherine Baicker and Mireille Jacobson.

"When Punishment Doesn’t Pay: Cold Glow and Decisions to Punish" by Aurélie Ouss and Alexander Peysakhovich.

"Correctional ‘Free Lunch’? Cost Neglect Increases Punishment in Prosecutors" by Eyal Aharoni, Heather M. Kleider-Offutt, and Sarah F. Brosnan.

"Organizational structure, police activity and crime" by Itai Ater, Yehonatan Givati, and Oren Rigbi.

"Incarceration and Crime: Evidence from California’s Public Safety Realignment Reform" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael.

"Impacts of Private Prison Contracting on Inmate Time Served and Recidivism" by Anita Mukherjee.

Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior.

“From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni.

“Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth.

“Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger.

“School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in Adulthood" by Kerrin C. Wolf and Aaron Kupchik.

“The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime" by Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Stephen B. Billings, and David J. Deming.

“Rethinking Universal Suspension for Severe Student Behavior" by Rebecca Hinze-Pifer and Lauren Sartain.

“Discipline Reform, School Culture, and Student Achievement" by Ashley C. Craig and David Martin.

“Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies" by Nolan Pope and George Zuo.

“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

"Can Restorative Practices Improve School Climate and Curb Suspensions? An Evaluation of the Impact of Restorative Practices in a Mid-Sized Urban School District" by Catherine Augustine, John Engberg, Geoffrey Grimm, Emma Lee, Elaine Wang, Karen Christianson, and Andrea Joseph.

“Evaluation of a Whole-School Change Intervention: Findings from a Two-Year Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Restorative Practices Intervention" by Joie Acosta, Matthew Chinman, Patricia Ebener, Patrick S. Malone, Andrea Phillips, and Asa Wilks.

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.

"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.

"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch

"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch

"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman

"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver

"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry

"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith

"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.

"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.

“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.

“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

“Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort.

"Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

"The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks.

"Parental Incarceration and Children's Educational Attainment" by Carolina Arteaga.

“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

"Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov.

"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes.

“When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw.

Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn

"‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss.

“The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang.

"The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan.

"How Cable News Reshaped Local Government" by Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta.

"Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil" by Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea.

“The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety" by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Gonçalves, and Emily Weisburst.

Probable Causation Episode 65: Felipe Gonçalves

“Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr.

Probable Causation Episode 55: Morgan Williams, Jr.

“Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey.

Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey

"The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang.

Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang

"Civic Responses to Police Violence" by Desmond Ang and Jonathan Tebes.

"Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities" by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.

Probable Causation Episode 95: Marcella Alsan

"Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-Profile Acts of Police Violence" by Desmond Ang, Panka Bencsik, Jesse Bruhn, and Ellora Derenoncourt.

"Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants" by Felipe M. Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily K. Weisburst.

"The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.

"Copaganda: The Media Origins of the Attitudes Toward Policing in America" by Eunji Kim, Tyler Reno, and Esteban Fernandez. [Working paper available from the authors.]

"The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration" by Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, Jérôme Valette.

David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies.

“Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism” by David Macdonald.

“Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws” by Joanna M. Shepherd.

“Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentencing laws" by Libor Dusek and Fusako Tsuchimoto.

"Truthiness in punishment: The far reach of truth-in-sentencing laws in state courts" by Emily G. Owens.

"How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes" by Ilyana Kuziemko.

"Can Parole Reduce Both Time Served and Crime?" by William Arbour & Steeve Marchand.

“Parole Supervision on the Margins” by Michael LaForest-Tucker.

“The effect of parole supervision on recidivism” by Evarn J. Ooi and Joanna Wang.

"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix and Steeve Marchand

"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.

Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision.

“Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision” by Ryan Sakoda.

“Intensive Probation and Parole" by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner.

“The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent.

“An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes.

“Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii’s HOPE” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.

“Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.

“Alternative Models of Instant Drug Testing: Evidence from an Experimental Trial” by Eric Grommon, Stephen M. Cox, William S. Davidson II, and Timothy S. Bynum.

“HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii’s HOPE Evaluation” by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.

“Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?” by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.

“Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial” by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.

“Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose.

Probable Causation Episode 98: Evan Rose

"Release from Prison, Parole, and Mortality" by Ashna Arora

Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment.

“Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang.

Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith

“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.

Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan

"The mark of a criminal record" by Devah Pager.

"The edge of stigma: An experimental audit of the effects of low-level criminal records on employment" by Christopher Uggen, Mike Vuolo, Sarah Lageson, Ebony Ruhland, and Hilary K. Whitham.

"Does banning the box help ex-offenders get jobs? Evaluating the effects of a prominent example" by Evan K. Rose.

"The criminal and labor market impacts of incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

"Expungement of criminal convictions: An empirical study" by J.J. Prescott and Sonja Starr.

"Unmarked: Criminal Record Clearing and Employment Outcomes" by Jeffrey Selbin, Justin McCrary, and Joshua Epstein.

"America's paper prisons: The second chance gap" by Colleen Chien.

"Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey.

Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey

"Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions" by Amanda Y. Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Alexandre Mas, and Crystal Yang.

"Is it time to let go of the past? Effect of clean slate regulation on employment and earnings" by Kabir Dasgupta, Keshar Ghimire, and Alexander Plum.

"Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record" by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman.

Probable Causation Episode 71: Zoë Cullen

Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police.

“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.

"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

"Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert. 

"The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza. 

"The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek.

"Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold. 

"Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus.

“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.

"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.

Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

"Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.

"The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.

"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.

“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.

“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.

“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.

“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.

“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.

“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.

“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.

“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.

“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.