Are you a true crime enthusiast but an even bigger research methods nerd? I see you.
If you have watched Mindhunters, read Silence of the Lambs, or are an old school Criminal Minds fan then you already know this study and this team of researchers. In the 1980s a team of FBI agents and researchers teamed up to advance what we knew about serial sexual offenders (serial killers).
In this episode, Dr Monsurul Hoq and I nerd out on the research methods and statistical analysis used in the first peer-reviewed research article that compared crime scene characteristics for organised and disorganised serial killers.
The beauty of this episode is the practical application of statistical methods. We talk about statistical power, alpha inflation, p-hacking, the obsession with p = .05 (conventions in determining statistical significance), and the importance of subject matter expertise and clinical / practical significance.
The paper this episode focuses on
Ressler, R.K., Burgess, A.W., Douglas, J.E., Hartman, C.R., & D’Agostino, R.B. (1986). Sexual Killers and Their Victims: Identifying patterns through crime scene analysis. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 1(3), 288-308. https://doi.org/10.1177/088626086001003003 [not open access]
About Dr Monsurul Hoq
Dr Monsurul Hoq has 10 years’ experience as a Biostatistician in medical and health research (in prevention and cure of common childhood illness, transgender health, vaccine uptake, paediatric reference intervals, disability, and mental health), leading, consulting, and performing statistical analysis of data, interpreting findings and reporting results. Prior to working in academia, Monsurul Hoq worked in non-government organisations in Bangladesh and South Sudan, monitoring and evaluating integrated community-based projects in education and child health sector.
Monsurul completed his PhD in Biostatistics at the University of Melbourne. His research established continuous age-specific reference intervals for blood biomarkers in children using a novel statistical method. You can find a list of Monsurul's publications here.
Jaz is writing a book
This interview was conducted in preparation for a book I am writing. If you'd like to be notified when the book is finished, please email me and I will store your email and only contact you when the book is ready for you to read. [[email protected]]
Cite this episode
MacDonald, J. B. & Hoq, M. (2025, December 29). Organised / disorganised typology of serial killers: A statistics deep dive of the 1986 study (No. 29) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.com
Transcript
The transcript for this episode was developed using transcription software. There may be errors in the content as I do not have capacity to review for accuracy.
Acknowledgements
Psych Attack is created and hosted by Dr Jasmine B. MacDonald. The video and audio for this episode was edited by Morgan McRae. Special thanks to Dr Monsurul Hoq for sharing your time and expertise.
Serial killer related blog posts
Serial killers of ‘Mindhunter’: Childhood experiences
The original research report behind ‘Mindhunter’
Comparing the brains of successful and unsuccessful psychopaths
The Crime Classification Manual
The first offender profile
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MacDonald, J. B. & Ashton, S. (2024, June 5). Sex therapy, kink and paraphilias (No. 18) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.com
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Interested in going deeper of p-values?
Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., & McShane, B. (2019). Retire statistical significance. Nature, 567, 305-307.
Gelman, A. & Stern, H. (2006). The Difference Between “Significant” and “Not Significant” is not Itself Statistically Significant. The American Statistician, 60(4), 328-331.
Greenland, S., Senn, S.J., Rothman, K...