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With OWYN in the mix, will Simply Good Foods need to make some tough decisions soon, as it now needs to spread resources and budget dollars across three portfolio brands? In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q3 2024 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) earnings report, earnings call, and supplemental presentations that were filed on 6/27/2024 as the backdrop to provide broad nutritional snacking market insights. In fiscal Q3 2024, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down portfolio performance, as Quest Nutrition beat categorical competitors in tracked channel retail takeaway (at 13.5% YoY growth). What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. That means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. Here’s the good news…the core bar business is growing. In fact, this year it had tracked channel retail takeaway growth of 2%. Additionally, Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for almost half of all retail sales, saw retail takeaway growth increase 27%. But if we take this one layer deeper…the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 50%. Quest chips now represent about 25% of the total Quest Nutrition revenue and provide a substantial share of new users to the brand. I’ve been a broken record when it comes to stating that salty snacks are where the excitement (and focus) should be placed within Quest Nutrition. The size of the total addressable salty snacks market suggests significant and continued upside on this business. We will see how the crackers perform over time, but I’d like them to tackle categories like pretzels or trail mix next. In the meantime, Quest Nutrition has signaled it will focus on a multifaceted acceleration plan that includes growth levers like new Quest Chip flavors, pack types, and channel expansion. Also, I run through what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins Nutritionals and explain actions the company is taking to change it…especially against the backdrop of GLP-1 weight loss solutions. In my opinion, you’re going to see weight management brands like Atkins (and others) get repositioned on the right side of GLP-1 second-order effects through both product innovation (e.g. Atkins strong)...but most of the “innovation” will come in the targeted communication marketing strategies. Finally, even though it didn’t officially count in this quarter's Simply Good Foods results, OWYN had quarterly retail takeaway growth of 117.5% YoY. If the OWYN acquisition happened at the beginning of fiscal Q3, Simply Good Foods total retail takeaway growth in measured and unmeasured channels would have been bumped up several percentage points each.
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With OWYN in the mix, will Simply Good Foods need to make some tough decisions soon, as it now needs to spread resources and budget dollars across three portfolio brands? In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q3 2024 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) earnings report, earnings call, and supplemental presentations that were filed on 6/27/2024 as the backdrop to provide broad nutritional snacking market insights. In fiscal Q3 2024, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down portfolio performance, as Quest Nutrition beat categorical competitors in tracked channel retail takeaway (at 13.5% YoY growth). What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. That means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. Here’s the good news…the core bar business is growing. In fact, this year it had tracked channel retail takeaway growth of 2%. Additionally, Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for almost half of all retail sales, saw retail takeaway growth increase 27%. But if we take this one layer deeper…the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 50%. Quest chips now represent about 25% of the total Quest Nutrition revenue and provide a substantial share of new users to the brand. I’ve been a broken record when it comes to stating that salty snacks are where the excitement (and focus) should be placed within Quest Nutrition. The size of the total addressable salty snacks market suggests significant and continued upside on this business. We will see how the crackers perform over time, but I’d like them to tackle categories like pretzels or trail mix next. In the meantime, Quest Nutrition has signaled it will focus on a multifaceted acceleration plan that includes growth levers like new Quest Chip flavors, pack types, and channel expansion. Also, I run through what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins Nutritionals and explain actions the company is taking to change it…especially against the backdrop of GLP-1 weight loss solutions. In my opinion, you’re going to see weight management brands like Atkins (and others) get repositioned on the right side of GLP-1 second-order effects through both product innovation (e.g. Atkins strong)...but most of the “innovation” will come in the targeted communication marketing strategies. Finally, even though it didn’t officially count in this quarter's Simply Good Foods results, OWYN had quarterly retail takeaway growth of 117.5% YoY. If the OWYN acquisition happened at the beginning of fiscal Q3, Simply Good Foods total retail takeaway growth in measured and unmeasured channels would have been bumped up several percentage points each.
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