Reports suggest around one-third of U.S. adults use continuous monitoring technology and health wearables…with trends showing persistent growth, especially among younger, educated, and higher-income individuals. And by providing 24/7/365, real-time data on physiological metrics like vital signs, glucose levels, and sleep patterns…continuous monitoring technology and health wearables are becoming increasingly powerful drivers of consumer behavior. And I believe this is super important, especially if you consider how more individuals began viewing themselves as consumers in the healthcare market compared to solely being patients. Also, with the help of continuous monitoring technology and health wearables…consumer healthcare has been evolving from a reactive, one-size-fits-all treatment approach to a distinctively proactive, personalized, and integrative data-led approach. Moreover, empowered by this "proactive health" mindset, consumers increasingly moving closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. Therefore, the most direct impact of continuous monitoring technology and health wearables is arguably the mainstreaming of the "food as medicine" philosophy. When consumers receive moment-by-moment feedback on how specific foods, beverages, and dietary supplements affect their bodies…they start demanding products tailored to their unique biological needs. But maybe the most significant example would be glycemic responses detected by continuous glucose monitors. In fact, whether boosted further by the recent FDA clearance for over-the-counter continuous glucose monitors and/or the rising usage of GLP-1 drugs for weight management…heightened interest in blood sugar management has also expanded beyond the diabetic community. Obviously, “war” had been waged on sugar a long time ago…but a “MAHA-influenced marketplace” has slightly shifted, with consumers being more comfortable with sweetness that has natural connotations. Either way, this signals a potentially powerful opportunity for packaged food and beverage companies to embrace diabetic-friendly products (for general wellness), as it’s reasonable to imagine a similar adoption trajectory of gluten-free beyond those with celiac disease. Nonetheless, nearly 43% of consumers (today) associate healthy food with boosting performance, which means real-time data has increased demand for ingredients with measurable impacts, such as adaptogens for stress relief and nootropics for cognitive performance. Also, this influx of high-frequency biometric data can help shorten the product development cycle by providing functional CPG companies with "real-world evidence" that was previously unattainable. Next, these health technology wearables have opened a new engagement approach like how seeking to better reach the increasingly influential variations of the “wellness maxxing” internet community, marketers of functional CPG brands have begun showcasing wearable data in social storytelling to help prove product efficacy. While I totally understand the primary business cases involve premium positioning strategies…I’d bet that begins to change, as industry forward-thinkers recognize synthesizing this data into actionable low-cost, high-impact functional product solutions for broader populations is the REAL prize. Lastly, while continuous glucose monitoring revolutionized diabetes care…the same approach applied to inflammatory proteins could transform care for autoimmune diseases or other chronic diseases (i.e. cardiovascular health).

Back in April 2023, you might remember that I uploaded a piece of content titled something like “The Clorox Company should divest its dietary supplement brand portfolio.” It aimed to increase recognition that a collection of supplement brands was buried within The Clorox Company, to clarify the holistic strategic reasoning behind why Clorox spent nearly $1 billion acquiring these dietary supplement brands last decade, and to describe (maybe not so surprisingly) how these dietary supplement brands mostly struggled under Clorox's ownership. And despite all that previous silly M&A justification rhetoric around how The Clorox Company had been a “health and wellness company” for over 100 years, the primary driver behind divestment was an integrated strategic plan that sought to achieve profitable growth acceleration through sharpening its focus on core household care brands. So, in the end…Clorox determined that the dietary supplement business was not aligned with its long-term vision. Accordingly, it took about 18 months after my original content, but that “pure rumor and speculation” turned into The Clorox Company selling its dietary supplements business (in its entirety) including the Natural Vitality, NeoCell, Rainbow Light, and RenewLife brands, relevant intellectual property, and the company's manufacturing and distribution facilities, to Piping Rock Health Products. But let me introduce you to the pure-play business that acquired these assets from The Clorox Company…because (I’d guess) despite its heritage rooted in over a half-century of experience in the supplement industry, many don’t recognize the name Piping Rock Health Products. In 1971, the family’s journey began with Arthur Rudolph, a pioneering figure in manufacturing vitamins. Following in his father’s footsteps, Scott teamed up with him to form Nature's Bounty…which eventually became the world’s largest vitamin manufacturer (marked by private equity firm The Carlyle Group acquiring the company for approximately $4 billion in 2010). A year later, joined by Scott’s son Michael, the Rudolph family took that achievement to the next level by forming Piping Rock Health Products…a vertically integrated multi-format dietary supplement brand manufacturer, distributor, marketer, and retailer. Before acquiring RenewLife, Natural Vitality, NeoCell, and Rainbow Light from The Clorox Company, it internally developed Nature’s Truth…a flagship brand modeled after Nature’s Bounty that now generates around $300 million annually. Also, beyond offering a few other smaller brands…Piping Rock does a lot of private label contract manufacturing for leading retailers. So, irrespective of knowing every Clorox M&A financial detail…the acquisition still signals an upsized level of ambition for Piping Rock, right? But this story doesn’t stop there…as Piping Rock continues to expand its presence in dietary supplements by “remixing” last year’s M&A activity with The Clorox Company. Similarly, targeting a multibillion-dollar CPG conglomerate (with an identity crisis), it was recently announced that Church & Dwight (after concluding its strategic review) signed a definitive agreement to sell the VitaFusion and L’il Critters dietary supplement brands to Piping Rock. In closing, I’d expect Piping Rock to continue taking advantage of a growing trend of Big CPG divesting their dietary supplement brands, as this market momentum creates new opportunities for pure-play businesses to scale through buying established, reputable brands.

While beloved by children…did you know that the entire National Football League combined is estimated to consume about 100K Smucker’s Uncrustables annually? If you aren’t familiar with Uncrustables, it’s essentially a frozen peanut butter and jelly sandwich, minus the crust…and intended to be eaten after they have thawed. The J.M. Smucker Company launched Uncrustables in 1998, and annual net sales of the frozen sandwiches grew 15 percent YoY in fiscal year 2025…with the goal of reaching $1 billion in annual net sales by the end of fiscal year 2026. And largely due to those financial metrics, competition within the frozen sandwich category has increased substantially…as both branded and private label players battle for limited shelf space in the merchandising set. But newcomer Jams is packing the frozen peanut butter and jelly sandwich with more protein, along with deploying a growing roster of influencers and athletes as equity partners…including NFL stars Micah Parsons and CJ Stroud. And that sounds all good…but let’s just hope Jams learned the valuable lesson from Chubby Snacks to “not attack or mock Uncrustables” or the king of the category will gladly put you out business one way or another!

What’s developing isn’t a “high-protein convenient nutrition” categorical battle between wholesale club private label and branded products…but an evolving model of coexistence! The two largest warehouse clubs in the United States each offer shoppers unique features and their own style of bulk discounting…but more recently, the biggest commonality is the effort by Costco and Sam’s Club to expand private label product assortments. In a retail landscape shaped by economic headwinds, generational turnover, and changing definitions of value, private label has become a powerhouse…not only as budget-friendly alternatives but a strategic lever for growth, shopper loyalty, and brand identity. Similarly, in an inflation-conscious landscape, shoppers are choosing private label not just because it’s cheaper…but increasingly because it also meets their evolving expectations for quality, innovation, and experience. But with private label shifting from “stigma” into a reflection of consumer values, thus moving beyond simply being placeholders for branded products…Costco and Sam’s Club are leaning into this momentum by positioning expansive store-brand expansion as a destination. But if you aren’t a Costco member, you might’ve missed that Kirkland Signature launched a whey protein powder last summer. And if you aren’t a Sam’s Club member, you likely overlooked that Member’s Mark launched an ultra-filtered milk protein shake last month. Though, recognizing that both wholesale clubs had launched high-protein bars several years earlier…you might be questioning the significance of these other convenient nutrition private label products, right? For years, Quest Nutrition defined the “high-protein bar” category…essentially building the modern protein bar. Then, both Kirkland Signature and Member’s Mark entered the space…matching Quest Nutrition on just about every product variable. The biggest difference…price! But it was a clear signal that the high-protein bar category had officially gone mainstream. Similarly, Optimum Nutrition and Fairlife are defining the “protein powder” and “protein shake” categories respectively…essentially building those modern convenient nutrition subcategories. But now, wholesale club retailers have entered the space…matching Optimum Nutrition and Fairlife on just about every product variable. Again, the biggest difference…price! But it’s another clear signal that these high-protein convenient nutrition subcategories have officially gone mainstream. But for branded CPG products…private label activity from Costco and/or Sam’s Club can feel like an attack. However, those leading wholesale club retailers are simply upholding a promise to their members. Unfortunately, whether it’s macro-related or more categorically specific factors (like persistent dairy proteins input cost inflation), consumers have increasingly searched for better value without sacrificing quality…and wholesale club private label brands will steadily take fuller advantage of this market opportunity. Finally, despite this rise in categorical private label activity…I’ll end my latest first principles content piece by highlighting how branded products can continue holding a powerful place in consumers’ hearts (and shopping carts).

Are we approaching a paradigm shift…where the conversation elevates from “quantity” to “quality” of weight loss? And if true…what could that mean for “muscle health” CPG products, which have benefitted greatly from the current GLP-1 market dynamics? The first wave of GLP-1 receptor agonists, which I’m dubbing the “quantity” paradigm, has been nothing short of revolutionary…with Wegovy Ozempic and Zepbound Mounjaro demonstrating significant weight loss, often exceeding reported data from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly clinical trials respectively. This unprecedented efficacy fueled a massive surge in demand and Morgan Stanley projects annual GLP-1 sales will soon become the biggest drug class in history. However, the initial conversation was dominated by how much weight could be (and how quickly it was) lost. Therefore, as these medications became more widely used…critical concern emerged surrounding how a significant portion of the lost weight was not just fat but also valuable lean body mass. But this concern has catalyzed the move toward a next wave in the GLP-1 market, which I’m dubbing the “quality” paradigm…where the focus is on what kind of weight is being lost. Recognizing that health is about more than just a number on a scale, the shifted goal would now be (still) maximizing fat mass reduction but while simultaneously preserving, or even enhancing, lean mass. Also, the “quality” paradigm emphasizes an integrated approach to weight management…as patients seek outcomes that support an active, healthy lifestyle. Accordingly, many CPG companies (explicitly those positioned across the intersecting categories of food, beverage, and dietary supplements) have progressively adapted to support the specific nutritional needs of individuals prescribed GLP-1 medications. In fact, my introductory statement referred to how these GLP-1 market dynamics have been beneficial to certain CPG products (particularly ones aiding in “muscle health”). Also, just to clarify my definition of “muscle health” CPG products that are benefitting greatly from current GLP-1 market dynamics…I’m mainly talking about protein (the tried-and-true nutritional cornerstone of building muscle), but also creatine (a natural fuel source for muscles) and HMB (that helps protect muscle mass). Though, if we want to fully understand any potential “muscle health” CPG categorical impacts stemming from next-gen pharmaceutical innovation aimed at improving long-term metabolic health and functional outcomes. According to analysts at TD Cowen, combination treatments designed to help individuals preserve muscle while losing weight with popular GLP-1 drugs by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly could generate more than $30 billion in sales by 2035. And maybe the most closely watched mid-stage drug trials have revolved around bimagrumab, which is a muscle-preserving drug that was part of an almost $2 billion Eli Lilly acquisition from mid-2023. Regardless of possible regulatory challenges still remaining, my strong conviction centers around eating less (with the help of current GLP-1 medications) can only do so much to better your health…thus “weight loss while maintaining muscle mass” is far too important for long-term health outcomes. Accordingly, these will become the next holy grail of obesity treatment (as we move closer to the 2030s). And if that prediction is directionally correct (which I believe is highly probable), it means eating/drinking culture will be reshaped further, accelerating a pivot toward nutrient density and functional benefits!

Amidst booming demand for functional beverages…niche ingredients have found a catalyst to mainstream awareness and mass acceptance. Though, there’s a big difference when comparing (say) lion’s mane mushrooms, which meets the FDA definition of a dietary supplement…and kratom, even if plant-derived sources of the niche ingredient could align with natural wellness trends. And I get it…there’s obviously growing market demand for kratom, that (depending on dosage) supposedly delivers a boost of euphoric energy or sedative relaxation. But poor regulatory enforcement doesn’t somehow make it allowable by default. And maybe this is a spicy take, especially coming from someone (personally) holding strong libertarian views when it comes to adults consuming whatever they want, but I believe professionally that beer-affiliated DSD distributors selling high-margin products with kratom (or even hemp-derived THC beverages in certain states) are no different than all these independent specialty supplement retailers selling unauthorized peptides or prohormones.

I’m having a tough time understanding the latest Liquid Death joke…does that mean I don’t have a sense of humor? For those unfamiliar, the original inspiration (that eventually became Liquid Death) occurred in 2009…when Founder (CEO) Mike Cessario went to watch some friends perform with their band at the Warped Tour. And because the festival was sponsored by Monster Beverage…musicians would be on stage drinking out of branded cans. But instead of them being filled with the actual Monster Energy liquid, they’d been replaced with water to keep musicians hydrated during their sets. And that sparked Mike Cessario (an advertising agency creative at the time) to question “why aren’t there more healthy products that still have funny, cool, irreverent branding?” Then, working on a public service ad campaign about the health risks of sugary energy drinks in 2014…he pitched the client on “doing a canned water stunt to poke fun at energy drinks.” While the client hated the idea, Mike Cessario spent the next roughly two years tinkering with the concept in his free time…eventually settling on what he called the “dumbest possible name for a super healthy, safest beverage possible.” But after potential investors passed on canned water concept, Mike Cessario (hoping to prove it was a viable brand), spent a few thousand dollars creating (and promoting) a short commercial that reframed water as the “deadliest stuff on earth” and responsible for way more deaths than energy drinks. So, if the constant impetus for Liquid Death came from “poking fun at energy drinks,” what could it mean when the brand just launched its own energy drink? With the tagline “feels like a cup of coffee, not an electric chair,” what you’ll initially notice is these Liquid Death Sparkling Energy drinks are less loaded with caffeine than most new entrants and challenger brands. And I’d hate if my previous statement was misinterpreted though…because product details can matter! But we cannot overlook that most CPG marketers will proclaim, “our brand this or that,” but few companies ever get past simply attempting to sell undifferentiated products. Though, when you can sell a product that (oh by the way) also brings someone an extremely desirable emotion…you’ve done something truly special. So, particularly when a CPG brand (like Liquid Death) rightfully carries forward its product philosophy (and standards) that helped it become a breakout…details can (in fact) matter. However, while some CPG industry pundits proclaim, “the move appears to be a natural extension of its brand identity, as Liquid Death has long seemed well-suited for the energy drink category,” I’ve got some doubts…especially when reapplying some comments I made last April surrounding the launch of its “Death Dust” hydration supplement stick packs! So, if Mike Cessario is simply taking a snapshot of the U.S. energy drinks market from 2009, 2014, 2018, or right now…it would certainly show the same duopolistic market structure. However, just analyzing Red Bull and Monster Beverage would hardly explain much about which underlying drivers “recently have, currently are, and will undoubtedly continue” powering the remarkable categorical growth. So, this is where I continue to struggle…will the Liquid Death “irreverent marketing” approach resonate with more diverse energy drink consumers looking for authenticity and relatability in brand messaging?

While most Big CPG brand portfolios restructure, realign, and refocus…GHOST is making those strategic efforts by its parent company Keurig Dr Pepper a bit more complicated! After its recent M&A transition (involving JDE Peet’s) closes, KDP plans to separate into two independent public companies…currently given generic “Global Coffee Co.” and “Beverage Co.” placeholder names. And this corporate restructuring move will significantly improve the previous KDP “refreshment beverages” segment by sharpening focus of decision-making, tailoring capital allocation strategies, and (overall) enhancing strategic optionality. But why did GHOST see that last point around “enhancing strategic optionality” and jump straight into launching a new product format…essentially complicating that KDP portfolio simplification process? Well…if you haven’t seen the leaked images yet, GHOST is launching a Protein Bar this month at that’s reminiscent of a Twix bar. And for those ignorant enough to think GHOST really is that impulsive, I can remember having strategic conversations surrounding “protein bars” with their co-founders dating back to 2018. And while all product innovation roads were destined to eventually lead back towards the protein bar category, GHOST proved (once again) it won’t settle for swimming in the “Sea of Sameness” when distinctiveness is a powerful tool to gain a competitive edge.

Let’s face it…there’s A LOT of terminology associated with ultra-processed foods. You have industrialized ingredients like certain seed oils or sugars like high fructose corn syrup. Then, there are the lab synthesized ingredients like artificial colors, flavors, and sweeteners. So, in an effort to improve public health and nutrition policies, the FDA is collaborating with the USDA to develop the first federal definition of ultra-processed foods. How long will this procedure take? Well…let’s just all hope it’s less time than the eight years the FDA recently took to update the definition of “healthy.” But interestingly enough, Americans don’t technically need further definition clarification, as surveys show most don’t even pay much attention to ensuring they avoid these controversial food components. Instead, affordability and enjoyment continue to be the strongest drivers of food and beverage consumption.

Wait, you’re telling me that a $100 million plus acquisition just occurred in the North American protein bar market…and I’ve never once mentioned the brand name throughout its almost decadelong existence? That simply cannot be TRU! Though, before anyone tries to ignorantly throw dirt on my name…I'll finally reveal why I’ve been publicly ignoring TRUBAR! However, it was just announced that TRUBAR would be acquired by Eti Gida, a Turkish CPG company, for approximately $142.5 million. And if you were trying to understand the valuation…as of the 2025 third quarter closing (dated September 30, 2025), trailing twelve months revenue from the TRUBAR segment would be just shy of $61 million. So, this would imply a 2.3x trailing twelve-month revenue multiple. And this is why I suspect TRUBAR “retail investors” are unhappy with the M&A transaction, as it would mark what I believe to be one of the lowest revenue multiples in the last decade of the protein bars market. Yet, for several varied reasons…TRUBAR isn’t ONE Brands, Quest Nutrition, FITCRUNCH, Barebells, Power Crunch, or a few other protein bar companies involved in recent M&A activity. Firstly, unlike the negative EBITDA (on a trailing twelve-month basis) at TRUBAR, these other protein bar companies actually made money. Next, while customers might enjoy the taste (and consumption experience) of TRUBAR products, there isn’t anything differentiated about them. If you weren’t familiar, protein bars are mostly a contract manufacturing “follow the leader” dominated category with a “sea of sameness” market composition. But even if TRUBAR differentiation could’ve been gained by form factor uniqueness (complexity), it still requires creating (or owning) the manufacturing process if a protein snacking company really hopes to secure longer-term defensibility (and competitive advantage). Then, with Big CPG jumping heavily into “protein-ified variants” of their leading snacking brands, it will further deepen the competitive landscape and transform “protein” into a battleground category as it proliferates across the entire grocery store. And you can argue that most of the beforementioned protein bars are dealing (at some level) with this same challenge (as the market evolves, expands, and segments further), but mainstream buyers don’t know about TRUBAR. Yes, retail availability has grown substantially in recent years…and revenue growth has largely accompanied it, but TRUBAR still has an extremely low U.S. protein bars market share and brand household penetration percentage overall. But to understand if new ownership can materially improve the likelihood that TRUBAR will become culturally relevant with the next generation of modern protein snacking customers, I'll more closely examine Eit Gida...which is among the top CPG manufacturers based in Turkey (becoming well-known in multiple geographies across various bakery and snacking categories). Though, you might be wondering…why is a Turkish Big CPG strategic acquiring a relatively small Canadian public company selling plant-based protein bars mainly in the U.S. market? But more importantly if Eti Gida can really help TRUBAR carve out a distinct niche in the crowded North American protein bar market.