Wait, you’re telling me that a $100 million plus acquisition just occurred in the North American protein bar market…and I’ve never once mentioned the brand name throughout its almost decadelong existence? That simply cannot be TRU! Though, before anyone tries to ignorantly throw dirt on my name…I'll finally reveal why I’ve been publicly ignoring TRUBAR! However, it was just announced that TRUBAR would be acquired by Eti Gida, a Turkish CPG company, for approximately $142.5 million. And if you were trying to understand the valuation…as of the 2025 third quarter closing (dated September 30, 2025), trailing twelve months revenue from the TRUBAR segment would be just shy of $61 million. So, this would imply a 2.3x trailing twelve-month revenue multiple. And this is why I suspect TRUBAR “retail investors” are unhappy with the M&A transaction, as it would mark what I believe to be one of the lowest revenue multiples in the last decade of the protein bars market. Yet, for several varied reasons…TRUBAR isn’t ONE Brands, Quest Nutrition, FITCRUNCH, Barebells, Power Crunch, or a few other protein bar companies involved in recent M&A activity. Firstly, unlike the negative EBITDA (on a trailing twelve-month basis) at TRUBAR, these other protein bar companies actually made money. Next, while customers might enjoy the taste (and consumption experience) of TRUBAR products, there isn’t anything differentiated about them. If you weren’t familiar, protein bars are mostly a contract manufacturing “follow the leader” dominated category with a “sea of sameness” market composition. But even if TRUBAR differentiation could’ve been gained by form factor uniqueness (complexity), it still requires creating (or owning) the manufacturing process if a protein snacking company really hopes to secure longer-term defensibility (and competitive advantage). Then, with Big CPG jumping heavily into “protein-ified variants” of their leading snacking brands, it will further deepen the competitive landscape and transform “protein” into a battleground category as it proliferates across the entire grocery store. And you can argue that most of the beforementioned protein bars are dealing (at some level) with this same challenge (as the market evolves, expands, and segments further), but mainstream buyers don’t know about TRUBAR. Yes, retail availability has grown substantially in recent years…and revenue growth has largely accompanied it, but TRUBAR still has an extremely low U.S. protein bars market share and brand household penetration percentage overall. But to understand if new ownership can materially improve the likelihood that TRUBAR will become culturally relevant with the next generation of modern protein snacking customers, I'll more closely examine Eit Gida...which is among the top CPG manufacturers based in Turkey (becoming well-known in multiple geographies across various bakery and snacking categories). Though, you might be wondering…why is a Turkish Big CPG strategic acquiring a relatively small Canadian public company selling plant-based protein bars mainly in the U.S. market? But more importantly if Eti Gida can really help TRUBAR carve out a distinct niche in the crowded North American protein bar market.

Did you know that PepsiCo has approximately 70% more packaged beverage SKUs than The Coca-Cola Company…but is generating roughly 15% less retail sales? That was just one of numerous fascinating insights included within the 75-page presentation Elliott Investment Management recently sent to PepsiCo board of directors. After building a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo, the well-known activist investor is urging the CPG giant to evaluate the potential refranchising of its bottling network…while streamlining its portfolio by divesting non-core and underperforming assets. Additionally, Elliott criticized the PepsiCo packaged beverages division for lagging behind principal competitors…despite a consistent flow of flashy (large) M&A deals. And if you’re wondering what that means for the recent “trade” between PepsiCo and Celsius Holdings, Elliott “thinks that the sale of the Rockstar Energy brand is a step in the right direction to simplify the portfolio.”

Has anyone else noticed that compared to a few of its peers…the Premier Protein growth story gets overlooked by pundits far too often? BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands reported 2025 Q4 net sales of $648.2 million, which was up 16.6% YoY. Premier Protein (~86% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 14.9% YoY, driven by strong volume growth. Dymatize Nutrition was up 32.9% YoY, stemming from strong volume growth and pulled forward international revenue ahead of planned pricing actions in fiscal year 2026. But since this was the company's fiscal fourth quarter, BellRing Brands annual results included generating net sales of $2.32 billion, an increase of 16.1% YoY…which comprised of a 14.7% volume increase and 2.2% increase in price/product mix. Moreover, I provide deep dives into Premier Protein RTD protein shakes business activity, along with examining similar metrics surrounding the protein powders from Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition. But my latest first principles content piece will end with briefly analyzing the product development variable defining this next phase of RTD protein beverages market. Premier Protein owns just over a quarter of the market…and the other quarter market share is held by the two RTD protein beverages under Fairlife (owned by The Coca-Cola Company). And from a product development standpoint, (in many ways) these are different products. Premier Protein is essentially an emulsified protein powder beverage…which has a comparatively thicker (higher viscosity) fluid and generally the consumption experience reminds you of drinking a healthy milkshake. Then, Fairlife (Core Power) is primarily ultra-filtered milk…which is thinner and generally the consumption experience reminds you of drinking a typical beverage. So, who (or I guess technically which product approach) wins? I don’t think there’s a definitive answer to this question just yet…despite Fairlife (Core Power) retail sales growth outpacing Premier Protein, and the gap closing quickly across a collection of other commercial metrics. While the competitive landscape is filled with declining legacy, newer insurgent, and crossover brands…it will continue as mainly a marketplace duopoly for some time, as it will take many years to replicate the manufacturing capacity, supply chain, product expertise, brand equity, and retailer relationships of these market leaders.

Even when everyone (including myself) thought it might be finished…could MusclePharm actually be showing signs of life again? But for those unfamiliar with the up-to-date FitLife Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FTLF) portfolio configuration…due to the acquisition of Irwin Naturals, which officially closed on August 8, 2025, it now sells more than 500 SKUs across 16 supplement brands, each with a slightly different product portfolio and sales channel strategy. But throughout this content, you’ll hear me categorize the FitLife Brands portfolio into three segments: Legacy FitLife Brands, MusclePharm, and Irwin Naturals. In the third quarter of 2025, the consolidated FitLife Brands portfolio generated revenue of $23.5 million...which was up 47% YoY. But while the consolidated FitLife Brands portfolio comparative growth rates appear extremely strong, it’s important to remember that those reported results were greatly impacted by the Irwin Naturals deal. But in my latest first principles content piece, I'll share a detailed collection of segment-level updates that I believe are important when trying to understand the FitLife Brands story. These include revenue diversification strategies within the legacy FitLife Brands that has dramatically lowered "key customer risk" with the specialty retailer GNC and how even the “oldest” supplement brands can still generate revenue growth along with being the strongest contributor to companywide net profitability. But while there's strategic initiatives going on that involve the legacy FitLife Brands and Mimi's Rock segments, the most intriguing activity within FitLife Brands is also currently its smallest segment (i.e. MusclePharm). In the third quarter of 2025, MusclePharm segment revenue was just under $3.8 million...which increased 55% YoY. But you’re probably hearing that…thinking to yourself “incredible results,” right? And trust me…I want nothing more than to give Dayton Judd (and the FitLife Brands leadership team) a huge virtual “pat on the back,” but there’s A LOT of devilish things happening in the details! You probably think I’m being overly dramatic, especially when (in the third quarter of 2025) MusclePharm wholesale revenue more than doubled YoY…and I’ve stated previously “the biggest opportunities will come from B2B activity,” right? However, FitLife Brands wrongfully assuming MusclePharm still had enough distinctiveness in the marketplace to justify its current strategic gameplan (that quickly expanded product formats within the protein category) was a huge miscalculation…and undoubtedly exposed its “above- and below-the-line” weaknesses even more prominently. Though, maybe the newest FitLife Brands acquisition can indirectly help alleviate these MusclePharm challenges? FitLife Brands got a boost in human capital from Irwin Naturals possessing strength in routes-to-market that are beneficial to selling MusclePharm protein bars and RTD protein beverages. And while all of this seems ideal…don’t get trapped into a state of exuberance thinking 1+1=3.

Did you happen to notice that Tylenol recently launched a dietary supplement product range designed to promote joint comfort and mobility? When the best-selling pain relief brand in the U.S. market launches a drug-free product range…it not only speaks volumes about shifting consumer attitudes from treatment to prevention, but also about the increasing importance of supplements for the pharmaceutical industry. And maybe unsurprisingly to my fellow industry nerds, but this new product launch further strengthens the pharma-nutra convergence trend. In fact, pharmaceutical companies have been increasingly tapping into the preventive segment…seeking new revenue opportunities to mitigate against numerous factors hampering industry profits. Therefore, even during periods of relatively strong demand for OTC drugs, supplements still present an important opportunity to expand the product offering…thus we expect this trend to continue and likely permanently reshape the nutraceutical industry.

Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ: MNST) is without a doubt one of best two-way players in the beverage game, but it’s hard to argue another “best defender in the industry” award isn't warranted after it recently announcing a new female-focused energy drink called FLRT will launch in early 2026. Offense and defense are terms that we’re mostly familiar with when talking about sports, but these words are also applicable in business strategy. When a company is playing offense, its making investments that move the business forward. Alternatively, when a company is playing defense, its making investments to prevent potential downside. Offensive and defensive business strategies are equally important, but when you utilize them depends on numerous internal and external considerations...and accounting for these various marketplace dynamics could mean an offensive-heavy or defensive-heavy strategic gameplan would yield more short- and long-term value generation. So, who’s the “King of Defense” in the beverage industry? If I was voting for this totally made-up award (again), I would give it to Monster Beverage Corporation just like when I examined the Reign Total Body Fuel and Reign Storm product innovations in February 2023. But instead of launching copycat energy drinks to defend against Bang Energy and CELSIUS, another highflying energy drink brand (or I guess brands) are currently on the Monster Beverage hit list. And while recent business performance has been relatively great at Monster Beverage, but that doesn’t mean it’s benefitted from every underlying growth driver powering the energy drinks market. Amid a slew of distribution partnerships, investments and acquisitions, the biggest success stories of the past several years have come to energy drink brands reaching toward female consumers. And the massive, continued achievements by Alani Nu and record-breaking early categorical results from Bloom Nutrition must’ve finally signaled “the future is female” to Monster Beverage because they just announced the upcoming launch of FLRT. Initially debuting in four flavors, FLRT will be positioned as a zero-sugar, female-focused energy drink brand. And while totally understanding (and respecting) the strategic defensive move from Monster Beverage, I didn’t need to read the overwhelmingly negative comments from pundits to know FLRT wasn’t going to be received well online. But since energy drinks are marketed as lifestyle brands that offer beverages with a functional benefit of caffeine, authenticity matters A LOT. So, while Alani Nu and Bloom Nutrition were each co-founded by female fitness influencers, Monster Energy is the epitome of such longtime mainstays of energy drink marketing like extreme sports and bikini models…that for some time suggested the only valuable categorical consumer were young males. And even if Monster Beverage attempted to develop female-focused energy drinks more than a decade ago, that overwhelmingly negative sentiment online obviously shows the brand identity of Monster Energy is so entrenched that consumers feel it seems grossly inauthentic to suddenly pivot now. Instead, if Monster Beverage wants to become liked by female consumers…it probably needs a more dramatic strategic plan. Thus, how about I leave you with this idea…Monster Beverage should acquire Olipop.

Did Applied Nutrition report the type of annual performance that deserves a shot at the championship belt? Applied Nutrition Plc (LSE: APN) is a leading sports nutrition brand sold in over 80 countries worldwide. There are several product ranges, including the namesake Applied Nutrition, All Black Everything (ABE), Body Fuel, and Endurance. Additionally, because of a trademark issue, the U.S. division sells its products under the AN Performance name. In fiscal year 2025, Applied Nutrition reported generating revenue of about $141 million, which increased 24.2% YoY. Given that its annual results were stellar, and Applied Nutrition has relatively low awareness in the U.S. market…my latest first principles content piece will examine a collection of recent strategic decisions that will help you better understand the business growth story. Applied Nutrition has historically reinvested profits back into the manufacturing capabilities and that existing pattern of capital allocation was reinforced in the latest financial statements. And that vertical integration (manufacturing around 80% of all products in house) allows Applied Nutrition to quickly evolve its product strategy to access emerging trends and fill opportunity gaps across the marketplace (positively impacting growth of distribution points and shelf space with existing and new customers). Also, Applied Nutrition’s product strategy (aided by vertical integration) can be leveraged for geographical expansion. Currently, about 45% of Applied Nutrition total revenue is being captured from commercial activities in its home market of the UK. But arguably the most important geographical expansion progress has been happening within the United States. Though, despite describing the geographic activity as “remaining in its infancy,” Applied Nutrition originally entered the U.S. market three years ago and became (from what I understand) the first sports nutrition brand headquartered outside of North America to land on all Walmart shelves nationwide. Moreover, Applied Nutrition has launched products catering towards U.S. consumers like licensed flavor collaborations with the global fruit brand Chiquita and nostalgic orange drink Tang. While I’ve tried a few of these products (and generally rate them high in terms of flavor matching, flavor likeability, and formulation approach), those great (glocalized) Applied Nutrition products are only a foundational element to unlocking any chance of success within the U.S. market. And I’m not recommending that Applied Nutrition completely transform its brand strategy globally, but if it hopes to have a meaningful chance at outsized commercial success in the fastest moving, quickest evolving, and most competitive marketplace for the sports/active nutrition niche of the supplement industry…it will need to better define its brand distinctiveness, increase its global marketing investments, and overall turn up the strategic aggressiveness. However, there remains a massive obstacle for Applied Nutrition, as it cannot sell under Applied Nutrition in the U.S. market because Irwin Naturals (owned by FitLife Brands) holds the trademark rights.

About a quarter of the 152K+ convenience stores have spoken, and they shared some interesting opinions about the growing energy drinks category. And even if you aren’t familiar with every insight regarding this beverage category, I’m sure you intuitively recognize that convenience is the most important sales channel (by sales dollars) for energy drinks in the U.S. market. But here are my top “categorical” takeaways from the most recent Goldman Sachs Beverage Bytes survey. Firstly, 60% of retailers are expecting energy drink brands to increase prices before the end of the year. And I started off in that direction because I don’t want any avid consumers of energy drinks to be caught off guard when your preferred daily caffeine fix gets more expensive by a few percentage points later this year. Next, while I wasn’t particularly a fan of this new flavor…most convenience store owners characterized the launch performance of Monster Ultra Vice Guava as “very strong.” Finally, convenience store owners are projecting that every energy drink brand in the top seven will experience full-year growth of at least mid-single-digits from 2024.

Can Celsius Holding navigate the hidden energy drinks market risks involving the Alani Nu and PepsiCo DSD distribution swap? Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) had quarterly revenue of $725.1 million, which was up 173% YoY. Excluding the Alani Nu acquisition-related financial impact, CELSIUS brand revenue grew 44% YoY. And if you were wondering about Alani Nu, it’s second quarter revenue was $332 million…which equates to around 99% YoY growth! According to Circana last 13-week retail sales data, CELSIUS increased by 31% YoY...remaining the third-largest energy drink brand in the category with a dollar share of 11.2%. Alani Nu increased retail sales 114% YoY and is now the dominant fourth player in the U.S. energy drinks market with dollar share of 7.2%. And Rockstar Energy retail sales decreased 9% YoY and is the seventh-largest U.S. energy drink with dollar share of 2.4%. If we look at Celsius Holdings combined brand portfolio, it reached 20.8% of dollar share for the last 13-week period...ranking it third and trailing only Red Bull and the combined Monster Beverage portfolio. Additionally, if you were to consider the last 52-week period ending July 20, 2025…Celsius Holdings retail sales surpassed $5 billion. Celsius Holdings has experienced massive growth in convenience stores, foodservice (e.g. fast food restaurants), mass retailers like Walmart, the club channel in retailers like Costco, and the Amazon marketplace. And international expansion presents significant opportunity for incremental growth over the next three to five years. With the Celsius brand basically at full distribution now…growth will be unlocked through a strategic growth framework that John Fieldly recently branded as “more people,” “more places,” and “more often.” The other major aspect of “Celsius Holdings and PepsiCo strengthening its long-term strategic partnership” comes into play, as Alani Nu will move into the PepsiCo DSD distribution system (officially starting in December). Everyone knew the most obvious decision to optimize for a “short-term reward” was Celsius Holdings transitioning Alani Nu from its piecemealed national (mostly independent) DSD network to the PepsiCo system. However, I can’t fault Celsius Holdings for making A LOT of noise by effectively “pulling off the biggest “trade” the U.S. energy drinks market has seen over the past decade.” But it’s the question around “timing” that has me fired up! But it’s time for Celsius Holdings to prepare…because winter is coming! Firstly, Celsius Holdings efficiently must handle market challenges stemming from swapping Alani Nu distribution rights. Next, Celsius Holdings must successfully catch the Rockstar Energy proverbial falling knife. Then, the shift to zero sugar, functional energy drinks, has essentially fueled one of the fastest-growing segments in beverage…and Celsius Holdings had been unequivocally defining it. Yet, with the addition of Rockstar Energy, Celsius Holdings must now reorient itself top to bottom around being a total energy portfolio…and not a performance-forward and modern energy portfolio that possesses this powerful “challenger mindset.”

Public Company CEO Rule 1 - "When all else fails…just mention AI." Glanbia Plc (LON:GLB) is a multibillion-dollar global nutrition company that's currently comprised of three divisions that span across the B2B supply chain (i.e. Health & Nutrition and Dairy Nutrition) and branded products (Performance Nutrition). “Health & Nutrition” is a leading global ingredients solutions business, providing value added ingredient and flavor solutions to a range of attractive, high-growth end markets. In the first nine months of 2025, revenue increased by 11.5% YoY. “Dairy Nutrition” is the number one producer of American-style cheddar cheese in the U.S. market, but more importantly (for my audience) the number one producer of whey protein isolate…and provides a wide range of dairy and functional protein solutions. In the first nine months of 2025, revenue increased by 3.2%. The brands in the Glanbia Performance Nutrition portfolio include; Optimum Nutrition, BSN, think!, Isopure, and Amazing Grass. Glanbia Performance Nutrition had first nine months of 2025 revenue that declined by 2.6% YoY. Additionally, I'll dive deeper into Glanbia Performance Nutrition geographical, sales channel, product format, and categorial performance. As part of the branded products portfolio part of the group-wide transformation program announced last November, Glanbia completed the sale of SlimFast and Body & Fit. In total, those divestures generated only around $63 million…which is a far cry from the almost $400 million paid for both assets less than a decade ago. Optimum Nutrition, which was the initial M&A transaction in 2008 that created the GPN division, now represents 68% of the total revenue. In the last year, Optimum Nutrition generated revenue of approximately $1.2 billion. The other largest share of GPN revenue is the healthy lifestyle brand portfolio makes up 19% and includes ISOPURE, think!, and Amazing Grass. And these healthy lifestyle brands has collectively performed relatively strong over the last several years, with like-for-like revenue increasing 2.6% YoY in the first nine months of 2025. Moreover, in terms of U.S. market tracked channels retail consumption growth…the healthy lifestyle brand portfolio was up 6.8%. And for the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content, I'll focus on the recent AI chatbot launch by Optimum Nutrition. While this is hardly “AI washing,” the current iteration of "Coach Optimum” is also not even worth mentioning on quarterly earnings calls. This isn’t to nitpick Glanbia (because it really wasn’t mentioned in any kind of predominant manner) but before parading around “Coach Optimum” again…maybe leadership should deepen its understanding of strategic flywheels from powerful predictive health platforms like Hims & Hers.