It became “a way of life” built around the simple idea of replacing meals with diet shakes…but can SlimFast stay relevant in an era when consumers are fixated with another weight loss mechanism that promises swift results? Is there a nutritional supplement brand more intertwined with fluctuations inherent to the weight management category than SlimFast? Even decades before SlimFast launched, the parent company (Thompson Medical) created an appetite suppressant gum called Slim-Mint Gum containing benzocaine, a diet pill called Figure-Aid, and another weight loss supplement Dexatrim (which became the best-selling diet pill on the market). Then, in 1977, Thompson Medical introduced SlimFast…marketed as a meal replacement shake that was to be utilized at breakfast and lunch. Unfortunately, during its first year on the market, the FDA issued warnings about the dangers of liquid dieting products…and every meal replacement supplement (including SlimFast) were removed from store shelves. Coincidentally, Thompson Medical was able to reintroduce SlimFast in the early 1980s…right around the time when Dexatrim sales began to decline due to regulatory concerns over ingredient safety. By 1984, Thompson Medical reported sales of approximately $197 million (which would be more than $600 million today adjusting for inflation). But throughout the mid-1980s, categorical competition heightened…especially after Oprah Winfrey began promoting Opti-Fast. So, gaining inspiration from that celebrity endorsement, SlimFast stumbled upon what would become the brand’s most successful advertising tool going forward. Hearing about a weight loss wager between Los Angeles Dodgers manager and two of his players, SlimFast signed Tommy Lasorda and helped him lose a significant amount of weight. It was the first highly successful campaign in a line of male celebrity endorsements that was largely responsible for significantly increasing brand awareness and expanding SlimFast into RTD beverages, frozen meals, and packaged snacks. Throughout the 1990s, SlimFast held a dominant market share across the intensely growing weight management subcategories…reporting sales of $611 million in 1999 (which would be around $1.2 billion today adjusting for inflation). And at the height of its popularity in 2000, Unilever acquired SlimFast for $2.4 billion. But a few years into the aggressive expansion efforts by Unilever, consumer preferences shifted within the weight management category, as the high protein and low carbohydrate diet craze (focused on Atkins and the South Beach Diet) became extremely popular. Unilever made various strategic product (and marketing) adjustments in hopes of better positioning SlimFast within the shifting marketplace, but retail sales fell 80% compared to when the brand was acquired. In 2014, Unilever eventually offloaded the brand to the private equity firm Kainos Capital. Over the next four years, Kainos Capital revitalized SlimFast, flipped sales trajectory into the fastest-growing weight management brand, and sold SlimFast to Glanbia for $350 million. Initially, Glanbia was able to successfully piggyback off the “keto diet trend,” growing SlimFast 45% larger than before the acquisition…but struggles intensified starting in 2022. But last week, when Heartland Food Products Group (owner of the Splenda low-calorie sweetener brand) announced it had acquired the SlimFast from Glanbia. And though Splenda is one of the most recognizable global brands, how does that translate into a brand selling nutritional supplements and RTD protein shakes?

Observable phenomena that precede changes in larger markets are found everywhere…hence why I believe a trio of trending nutraceutical ingredients could be a powerful leading indicator for the next generation of energy drinks. And I want to set the stage by providing my basic mental model surrounding the market evolution of energy drinks. Firstly, energy drinks are no longer just sugar-filled flavored caffeinated carbonated waters. In fact, more than half of all energy drinks sold in the United States are sugar free. Secondly, energy drinks are no longer marketed primarily to thrill-seeking young males. In fact, energy drink consumers have evolved greatly…with the current market largely gender-balanced, age-balanced, and lifestyle-oriented. Lastly, energy drinks are no longer a niche beverage category. In fact, the categorical mainstreaming effect catapulted three energy drink brands onto the top ten list of largest liquid refreshment beverages. Additionally, every multibillion-dollar functional beverage category (such as energy drinks) is in the early innings of a remarkable transformation…as consumers move closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and (not only) functionality (but) multifunctional benefits that contribute to overall wellbeing. And I’m not debating against plain ole great tasting sugar free energy drinks remaining a consumption evergreen…but an evolving arbitrage will continue existing due to individuals not wanting totally different consumption habits (just more beneficial ones). So, amidst this booming desire for packing more functionality within energy drinks…savvy ingredient companies have found a catalyst to mainstream awareness and mass acceptance. Currently, almost all energy drink consumers understand the category as stimulation (delivered through caffeine). Yet, even against the backdrop of likely the highest consumer interest level in caffeine ever…why then do I think Cognizin citicoline, goBHB ketones, and Enfinity paraxanthine, will play an outsized role in the next generation of energy drinks? For the evolving RTD energy category, that increasingly serves as a euphemism for other benefits like alertness, focus, reduced fatigue, and improved endurance…consumers concentrating around a handful of clear outcomes will play an important role in how these nutraceutical ingredients (beyond caffeine) deliver relevant products that tap into broader market opportunities. Also, over the last handful of years…work-life balance has gotten redefined (and adjusted bi-directionally), as the typical 9-to-5 work schedule intermixes with other segments of personal time. Additionally, consider the widening range of applications and “physical versus mental energy” need states this functional beverage category can serve like active nutrition, cognitive performance, and healthy aging…suggesting consumers (more than ever) are looking for solutions that help energize them throughout the day (even into the night) and help recovery for the next day. But then why does caffeine still dominate as the primary ingredient solution? Caffeine is universally lauded for its ability to kickstart the day, with effects felt almost immediately, but the ingredient does have its limitations. So, taking into consideration those well-known limiting factors…how about I briefly describe some of the underlying drivers of demand that support my non-consensus (and early) conviction around escalating importance of (Cognizin, goBHB, and Enfinity paraxanthine) within the next generation of energy drinks.

In 2007, when The Coca-Cola Company acquired the enhanced water portfolio Glaceau for $4.1 billion…all the attention was focused on its flagship brand Vitaminwater. Heck…even 50 Cent reportedly made around $100 million from the M&A transaction, as the rapper structured his deal around equity rather than traditional endorsement fees. But significant change has happened since…from 50 Cent filing for bankruptcy in 2015 to the retail sales of Vitaminwater slowing down. But within the endless catalog of famous 50 Cent lyrics, he once said, “every negative is a positive. The bad things that happen to me, I somehow make them good. That means you can’t do anything to hurt me.” And that personifies exactly how this massive M&A deal played out, with Smartwater emerging as a billion-dollar premium water brand and the biggest water brand overall in The Coca-Cola Company portfolio.

At least to me, it seems everywhere you turn…iron-clad sports nutrition brands of the past are now showing huge cracks in their armor. So then, why does the industry appear shocked by the recent Iovate Health Sciences International news? For those that haven’t already read the headlines, (last week) Iovate Health Sciences International filed voluntary petitions for protection under Chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy Code. But unlike other chapters that address domestic bankruptcies, Chapter 15 doesn’t involve a full liquidation or reorganization of the debtor through the U.S. court system. Instead, Chapter 15 is an administrative process to grant U.S. recognition to a foreign proceeding…designed to facilitate cross-border insolvency cases involving debtors, creditors, and assets in multiple countries. Thus, Iovate Health Sciences International is utilizing the bankruptcy proceedings to stabilize its operations and pursue an orderly cross-border restructuring…because if you didn’t realize, the parent company of supplement brands like Hydroxycut and MuscleTech is headquartered in Canada. Founded in 1995, Iovate initially began as MuscleTech Research and Development…launching as a direct-to-consumer mail order business with just three products, one of which was the original Hydroxycut formula. A year later, MuscleTech expanded into physical retailers like GNC…and then soon after launched the infamous Cell-Tech product, along with Nitro-Tech, quickly becoming the first (and probably only) occurrence in supplement industry history that a single brand owned the top-selling fat burner, creatine, and protein powder products simultaneously. But while Iovate continually evolved its family of sports nutrition and wellness brands throughout the 21st century, the current portfolio includes the beforementioned MuscleTech and Hydroxycut (which eventually got spun off into a standalone brand), but also Six Star Pro Nutrition and Purely Inspired. And I can continue being nostalgic and overly positive by sharing numerous commercial highlights, but that wouldn’t tell the entire business story. In fact, a central reason for changing the company name to Iovate Health Sciences International resulted from an original MuscleTech bankruptcy filing in June 2005…which got triggered after it faced thousands of lawsuits mostly related to Hydroxycut products containing ephedra. And I can go on and mention many other lawsuit settlements and reputational blunders…but in 2016, Xiwang Foodstuffs acquired Iovate Health Sciences International for reportedly north of a half-billion dollars. So, what caused this bankruptcy? The largest trade payable is the organic nutritional products brand Orgain, which (as of 2022) is now majority owned by Nestle Health Science. While the legal battle wasn’t publicized much, Orgain filed a trade dress infringement lawsuit against Iovate…alleging that the Purely Inspired mimicked the Orgain packaging. Then, in April 2024, a U.S. court ordered Iovate to pay Orgain $12.5 million for copying its product labeling. But after Iovate failed to pay, Orgain obtained a writ of garnishment against Walmart, which withheld approximately $8 million in outstanding accounts receivable payments…severely impacting the working capital of Iovate. And as you’d imagine, this liquidity crunch ended up being a central reason why Iovate defaulted on its secured debt with Royal Bank of Canada. But while the protracted legal battle with Orgain might’ve been the “straw that broke the camel’s back,” it hardly explains everything.

With its original investment thesis proven accurate, Nutrabolt has decided to expand its strategic partnership with Bloom Nutrition. So, this content will provide you with the legitimate “insider” deep dive insights needed to really understand the nuance behind why Nutrabolt and Bloom Nutrition both decided to expand their strategic partnership, what it unlocks for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), and how it could impact the energy drinks market going forward. So, why is this such big news? Comparatively speaking, there isn’t a single (early stage) brand (in my opinion) currently displaying the same level of beverage industry upside potential…especially within such an important large category like energy drinks. And while that original strategic growth capital obviously fueled and accelerated many key areas like (most notably) product innovation…I can say with complete confidence that the record-setting explosive growth year of Bloom Sparkling Energy (or the initial breakout success of Bloom Pop) would not have happened without Nutrabolt. Also, I’m not even referencing any impact from the Nutrabolt and KDP strategic partnership either…as the biggest value Nutrabolt provided to Bloom was ensuring “Icarus” didn’t fly too close to the sun. The truth is…Bloom already had the vision, but it needed that trusted “big brother” to help with the recent brand evolution. But the expanded investment strengthens the commercial partnership between Bloom and Nutrabolt, thus by proxy also strengthens the commercial partnership between Bloom and KDP (which has played a valued role in the Bloom retail strategy). And for those living under a rock…let me backtrack and mention that KDP acquired a significant minority equity stake in Nutrabolt about three years ago. Similarly, I can say with complete confidence, whether in terms of new categories, expanding usage occasions, attracting a broader consumer base…or just indirectly providing Nutrabolt with a much-needed kick in the ass around brand marketing, the “powerful step-change growth opportunity for Nutrabolt,” would not have happened without Bloom. The truth is…Nutrabolt already had the strategic discipline, but it needed that passionate energetic “little brother” to help with the recent company evolution. Nutrabolt is now on pace to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue on a consolidated basis…and has transformed into one of the fastest-growing and most talked-about global active health and wellness companies. But where does that take Nutrabolt next? Does becoming the majority owner of Bloom (strengthen or weaken) my Nutrabolt IPO prediction from several years ago? I’ve always felt Nutrabolt becoming a public company would be advantageous for KDP as well…as I’ve been mentioning this proxy strategic investment vehicle concept for years. Obviously, the recent CELSIUS, Alani Nu, Rockstar Energy, and PepsiCo transaction further confirmed the importance of this “strategic category captain” structure. So, my conviction should be stronger than ever around KDP utilizing Nutrabolt as the “active nutrition” category captain, but that would require me turning a blind eye to the recent announcement that KDP would acquire JDE Peet's (and subsequently separated into two separate independent companies…currently given generic “Global Coffee Co.” and “Beverage Co.” placeholder names). And while KDP streamlining itself doesn’t necessarily diminish the chances of a Nutrabolt IPO, it likely complicates the beforementioned idea of being the “KDP Beverage Co.” active nutrition category captain.

What could the Major League Baseball “Pittsburgh drug trials” have in common with CELSIUS energy drinks 40 years later? While relatively unknown compared to the “BALCO performance enhancing substances” scandal, the first major drug punishments handed out across Major League Baseball involved players using cocaine in their respective clubhouses. In fact, during the late-1970s and early-1980s, drug use in society was considered a huge problem at hand…and that included affecting “as many as 40 percent of major league baseball players.” And while the Pittsburgh drug trials were lauded for cleaning up the game of illegal street drugs…usage of amphetamines continued to be super common in baseball until testing protocols changed in 2006. Then, baseball players responded by getting Adderall prescriptions, and more recently consuming copious energy drinks. So, what does this have to do with CELSIUS? Recently, rumors began flying around Major League Baseball that drinking the brand’s energy drinks could result in a false positive for cocaine. And I don’t need to be a toxicologist to assert the absurdity around that false claim, but hasn’t the public learned yet that athletes caught consuming illegal substances will always try placing blame on dietary supplements (or in this case a functional beverage that was incubated within the supplement industry).

Ain’t no party like a Beatbox party, cause a Beatbox party don’t stop…except when the production lines get foreclosed on! But to better understand that last statement, it requires a brief four-year “rise and fall” history lesson surrounding the small Canadian public company named Flow Beverage Corporation. In mid-2021, a reverse takeover transaction was completed on the premium water company, and Flow Beverage began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange. After that liquidity event, the total fundraising amount of Flow Beverage ballooned to around $100 million (which included celebrities like Post Malone and athletes like Russell Westbrook). And I’m mentioning that financial snapshot of total amount raised by Flow Beverage for interesting several reasons. Firstly, irrespective of CPG category…raising nine-figures of capital is substantial (and shouldn’t be overlooked). Also, it appears even more significant after realizing the company’s highest annual revenue never expanded beyond merely one-third of that total fundraising amount…a far cry from the founder (and CEO) Nicholas Reichenbach stating in 2021 that he’d “take Flow Beverage to multi-billion dollars of revenue annually.” Next, capital structure challenges became a central reason for the demise of Flow Beverage…a mere four years after going public. And arguably the “straw that broke the camel’s back” happened in May 2025 when Nicholas Reichenbach signed a series of binding term sheets (requiring personal guarantee) that seemed (even at the time) unlikely to solve any working capital issues. But as you’ve likely been able to determine already…Flow Beverage wasn’t Liquid Death. And since Flow Beverage wasn’t a highly skilled marketing company that just so happened to sell packaged beverages…burning nine-figures of capital on advertising would’ve been frankly absurd! Instead, at the time of the reverse takeover transaction, Flow Beverage owned two artesian springs and operated two North American Tetra Pak-capable production facilities. So, Flow Beverage was the opposite of the typical beverage company deploying an asset-light business model. And while those Tetra Pak manufacturing sites were used to produce Flow Alkaline Spring Water, the company also utilized them for contract manufacturing…servicing customers like BeatBox Beverages, BioSteel, and Joyburst. But a few weeks ago, Flow Beverage was forced to enter into a support agreement and transfer ownership of the business and its assets to primary lenders (i.e. NFS Leasing Canada and RI Flow) after they demanded repayment. And this foreclosure obviously leaves uncertainty around what could happen during the restructuring process...especially for its largest contract manufacturing customer Beatbox Beverages (one of the fastest-growing and top-selling RTD alcohol brands in the United States). If you aren’t familiar, Beatbox Beverages has become the brand that’s bringing the party to the alcohol industry. Yet, the “original party punch” has proven its way more than just a music festival favorite…becoming the most engaged alcohol brand on social media, with availability in over 125K stores across all 50 states. In 2025, BeatBox Beverages is expected to sell over 12 million cases…amounting to over $250 million in retail sales. And with BeatBox Beverages experiencing triple-digit YoY retail sales growth over the past few years…it must consistently reach for operational excellence, or the proverbial party could end abruptly.

Can we talk about how Red Bull suddenly stopped overlooking the fitness crowd? It was more than a decade ago when Bang Energy popularized performance energy drinks, which was instrumental in broadening the appeal of energy drinks. And even if they won’t ever admit it publicly, large energy drinks incumbents like Red Bull and Monster Energy both incumbents have become increasingly worried about brands incubated within the sports nutrition niche of the supplement industry, aka the “often imitated, never duplicated” influential epicenter of the CPG industry. But while it wasn’t forced into a defensive product strategy like how Monster Beverage created Reign Total Body Fuel…Red Bull has more recently started focusing sports sponsorships and marketing activations on fitness enthusiasts. In fact, Red Bull exhibited at this year’s Arnold Sports Festival, has gotten involved with fitness racing leagues like HYROX, and created branded fitness competitions like Red Bull Gym Clash. Finally, Red Bull just signed a multi-year global partnership with the functional group workout community F45 Training…integrating product sampling, branded coolers, and leveraging content creators.

Did Celsius Holdings and PepsiCo just pull-off the biggest “trade” the U.S. energy drinks market has seen over the past decade? I instantly felt like the beverage industry version of ESPN analyst Adam Schefter reporting on an NFL trade when I started to read the press release titled “Celsius Holdings and PepsiCo Strengthen Long-Term Strategic Partnership.” Essentially, CELSIUS acquired the Rockstar Energy brand (and $585 million in cash considerations), in return for PepsiCo receiving newly issued convertible 5% preferred stock, an additional board of directors seat, and the Alani Nu DSD distribution rights. And it reminded me of the all-time biggest “trade” within the energy drinks market that was announced in August 2014, involving Monster Beverage Corporation and The Coca-Cola Company entering into a long-term strategic partnership to accelerate growth for both companies in the fast-growing, global energy drink category. And beyond swapping brand assets, key terms of their current distribution agreement (like contract length, geographical expansion, and categorical exclusivity) were amended. But speaking of amended distribution agreements…the CELSIUS, PepsiCo, and Alani Nu DSD story likely began sometime in the second half of 2023 (when co-owners of Alani Nu started exploring sale options) but really started to heat up when a distribution agreement revision happened between CELSIUS and PepsiCo in early 2024. But then when the CELSIUS and Alani Nu deal was officially announced in February 2025, I quickly started shouting about this upcoming “short-term reward versus long-term risk” strategic roadmap decision involving Alani Nu distribution. And everyone knew the most obvious decision to optimize for a “short-term reward” was Celsius Holdings transitioning Alani Nu from its current piecemealed national (mostly independent) DSD network to the PepsiCo system. Yet, it’s the question around “timing” that got me fired up! Alani Nu has been an absolute rocket ship brand over the last few years…which had been essentially built off the back of its current DSD distribution network. Though, from my very first content talking about the M&A announcement…I believed the best near-term strategic plan involved Alani Nu distribution network continuity because (1) it would minimize platform “key customer risk,” (2) strengthen focus on other business integration elements, but (3) lowers cannibalization risk significantly. And it’s that last point around cannibalization risk, which (in my opinion) has become even more prominent after quickness of the distribution transition decision. Though, another expected strategic alignment got unlocked when Celsius Holdings took ownership of the Rockstar Energy brand…making them PepsiCo’s strategic energy drink captain. And that essentially means Celsius Holdings will have the opportunity to drive the strategic direction of a unified energy portfolio through seamless planogram design, SKU prioritization, and promotional execution. Nevertheless, the biggest question revolves around whether Rockstar Energy will be net-additive or net-subtractive to the Celsius Holdings portfolio? And then lastly, my first principles thinking content will cover the energy drinks market implications from a new round of the DSD musical chairs game within the energy drinks category to exploring if more large-scale energy drinks market consolidation will happen soon.

In 2015, the most lucrative beverage industry deal ended up happening between Monster Beverage and The Coca-Cola Company. But what doesn’t get talked about enough is how that long-term strategic partnership caused another beverage giant to experience the categorical version of the movie “50 First Dates.” And that’s because before Coca-Cola became the exclusive global distribution partner of Monster Energy, Anheuser-Busch was the preferred domestic distributor…in the early phase of its “beyond beer” strategic transformation. But while AB InBev could’ve then aggressively pursued the acquisition of Bang Energy or more recently CELSIUS, GHOST, or Alani Nu…which had all been essentially built off the back of the beer giant’s distributor network, it made the head scratching decision to buy HiBall Energy in 2017. And while AB InBev discontinued the all-natural energy drinks in 2023…it sold the defunct brand IP to Tilray a handful of months later. But now with more focus being placed on HiBall, the business is growing substantially on Amazon and returning to Whole Foods Market…a retailer where brand loyalty was strong. So, it begs the question…is there some kind of categorical curse on AB InBev that I haven’t heard of yet?