It has now been about a year since Bayer suddenly shut down Care/of…the personalized nutrition brand it acquired in 2020. So, with hindsight providing us 20/20 vision…what can the supplement industry learn about this intense “rise and fall” business story? And you might be thinking, "aren’t we too late to learn from the Care/of vitamins business story?" Though, anyone even remotely paying close attention to either the enormous shift in supplement industry marketplace dynamics, the complex (and ever-changing) world of personalized nutrition, and/or the ongoing turnaround efforts at one of the largest players in pharmaceuticals, consumer health, and crop science…knows patience was required to create decisive confident statements about this specific business event. So, my latest first principles thinking content will explore what really happened at Care/of and examine if it has broader implications to what was dubbed by many insider experts and (and mainstream news) sources as the “future of wellness.” Did the Bayer “billion-dollar consumer health brand or bust” mentality cause it? Was it an internal Care/of strategic failures? Or has personalized nutrition been overhyped and will never provide substantial long-term market attractiveness?

It’s been said that "a complete picture emerges not from one fixed viewpoint, but from the understanding of multiple sides, each offering a unique piece of the puzzle.” And in any complex business puzzle, understanding different perspectives is essential…which is one reason why I’ve always enjoyed talking to Ryan Lewendon, as his law firm (Giannuzzi Lewendon), like my own strategy consulting practice, works with a wide variety of innovative, category creating companies that have helped define today’s consumer packaged goods landscape. If you remember the last time we sat down together for a proper “recorded conversation” about 15 months ago, I took Ryan Lewendon through a Nickelodeon Guts “Aggro Crag” type gauntlet of trending CPG industry topics. But while this jam session is shorter in length…it equally shows our intense curiosity and passion for every aspect of the CPG industry, which I think can naturally lead to super impactful nuggets of insights for stakeholders within all this uncertainty that spans from MAHA movement changes to tariffs (and everything in between).

Subscribe = Pour Decisions Podcast

Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

In the 1980s, it was pay-at-the-pump technology. But 40 years later, another technological risk has emerged in the form of electric vehicles. But while there’s an additional bevy of other external threats to foot traffic like impulse purchase rapid delivery startups…it all comes back to how best can convenience stores draw consumers inside. And I believe the strategic answer is focusing on “controlling your own destiny.” So, what do Buc-ee’s, Sheetz, Wawa, and Casey’s have in common? They’ve garnered considerable loyalty nationwide (beyond their regional origins) with exceptional foodservice options. Similarly, many c-store brands (like 7-Eleven and Love’s) are accelerating their private label growth…building customer loyalty and repeat visits. The fact is…within the last century, convenience stores have faced countless threats and successfully evolved into one of the most important U.S. sales channels with over 150,000 total locations.

Trump is back…but should stakeholders operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements be cheerful about his return to the oval office? This will certainly not sound like a “hot take” or anything, but the second Trump presidential term will undoubtedly offer a mixture of risk and reward…ushering in a new era of market volatility. As press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently pointed out, "there has never been a president who communicates with the American people as openly and authentically as Donald Trump.” But while I personally enjoy that operating model…it does create an economic environment that I recently described to an industry colleague as “best suited for master sailors.” And that’s because the art of both the sailor (and businessperson) is to leave nothing to chance…but sailors are artists whose medium is the wind and today’s businesspeople must be artists whose medium is correctly spotting Donald Trump’s subtle hints that reveal upcoming events. Furthermore, I believe a key to potentially benefitting from the Trump 2.0 “driver of demand” requires understanding how to position against a few of his known (but converging) “the art of the deal” tendencies. And these would be (1) a little hyperbole never hurts, (2) confirm an impression they were already predisposed to believe, (3) never get too attached to one deal or one approach, and (4) sometimes your best decisions are the ones you don’t make. Finally, it’s extremely important to consider rate of speed and level of efficiency surrounding Trump 2.0 changes. Since this is a “been here, done that” kind of thing, Trump won’t fumble through the initial phase of his term he will have a better understanding around bottlenecks and getting around chokepoints…including how to flex unilateral powers. Also, given that the House and Senate are Republican majorities (at least for the next two years), that political trifecta usually creates efficiency and makes for stickier policy changes. But the inspiration behind my latest first principles thinking content piece (or I guess content miniseries) was a Trump 2.0 section titled “rhetoric foreshadowing action is greater than embellished negotiation tactics” that I included into many of functional CPG brand and supply side client presentations during the last quarter of 2024. And while each of those client presentations were packed with diverse personalized insights…I’m confident this “Trump 2.0” content miniseries, filled with a refined (and expanded) version of my generalized “base case” strategies, will be extremely valuable to my regular audience. And I figured the final part should be "commerce" because it has a complex interplay with those previous parts. And to help everyone envision what’s included within this part, it will start with the consumer spending and transition into areas that directly influence consumer behavior (e.g. social media like TikTok), before commencing around the underlying drivers impacting aspects of offline and online retail. You’ll often hear veteran professionals throw around the claim that “the supplement industry is recession proof (or recession resistant),” but I wouldn’t blindly put trust in that anecdote…as every economic downturn is different. But whether the current economic environment turns negative enough (and for long enough) to be deemed “the R word” shouldn’t be what’s overly worrisome.

Maybe it was just me…but did anyone else get excited weekly as a kid when it was pasta night? As the youth like to say nowadays…those carbs hated to see me coming. Yet today’s “carbs are evil” conspiracy theory believing parents would never allow those same weekly “big back” moments. Instead, we’ve collectively broken the historical “pasta purity law” and adulterated one of the most perfect foods this world has to offer with dried chickpeas, red lentils, green lentils, and green peas. But if you’ve spent any time recently perusing the shelves within grocery stores, it’s likely that you’ve noticed that high-protein claims are penetrating more diverse food and beverage categories. In addition to the ubiquitous protein bars, protein powders, and protein shakes…protein is going into everything that’s quick, easy, and accessible. And that includes reimagining pasta night with high-protein noodles (and marinara sauce).

The RTD cocktail segment has experienced massive success in recent years, helped by its convenient format and the rise of the at-home cocktail occasion during the “Great Shutdown” era. But while the RTD cocktail market has seen an abundance of new entrants, as it predictably followed my CPG industry adage that “strong demand growth breeds intense commercialization activity,” there have been smarter and more effective launches as the category matures and has a clearer view of the consumer. And it appears these RTD cocktail drinkers are selecting health-conscious products with premium ingredients and flavorful options…oftentimes seeking a fun, refreshing taste of their childhood with an adult beverage spin. Moreover, A LOT of categorical success is in recreating or reimagining something where there’s already consumer behavior. And that was a key motivating factor behind Adam Kost creating Dirty Shirley, a nostalgic yet boozy twist to the classic Shirley Temple beverage we’ve likely all enjoyed growing up. Last year, Dirty Shirley, which contains organic cherry juice, natural flavors, and super premium vodka, grew almost 1000% YoY. Yet, as you’ll hear in our conversation, Dirty Shirley is only getting started by continuing to thoughtfully expand markets and creating a variety of powerful strategic retail and brand partnerships. Subscribe = Pour Decisions Podcast

Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

It was just announced that David closed a $75 million Series A funding round…valuing the 8-month-old startup at $725 million. Launched the same exact day as my previous content with David Co-Founder (and CEO) Peter Rahal went live in September 2024, David’s current valuation has already surpassed his first protein bar exit, which involved Kellogg’s acquiring RXBAR for $600 million in 2017. But David will obviously use the investment to scale manufacturing, accelerate product development, and expand inventory to meet surging demand. Moreover, in an effort to strengthen its ability to scale…David acquired Epogee, the food technology firm behind EPG, a plant-based fat alternative that significantly reduces calories and fat without compromising taste or texture. And at first glance, it might seem like an odd use of capital to acquire an ingredient supplier…but in my latest first principles thinking content, I'll explain the beauty of this vertical integration investment decision. And I’m sure some industry pundits (or so-called MAHA nutrition experts) will cry that EPG is a step back towards the fat-free craze of my 90’s youth. And you’re entitled to that opinion but honestly keep it to yourself…because I’m a business-minded simpleton admiring the beautiful strategic alignment between protein bar consumers wanting a “protein-to-calorie” ratio like leading ready-to-mix and RTD protein shakes, and David gaining exclusive control over an important supply chain element making that possible. David isn’t just another protein bar brand, it’s a food technology company focused on building tools that make it easier for consumers to eat well without compromise.

Let’s be REEEAAALLLLYYYY honest with ourselves here…do we really need a “better for you” Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) version of every nostalgic sweet treat? I understand that many of my fellow Millennial parents want to give our kids the same joys of childhood that we had, but can we agree that some of Willy Wonka’s candy ideas should be off-limits? And that’s because…even if sensory experiences can be closely mimicked, what’s fun about dipping a pectin-based fruit strip into freeze dried organic fruit powder! I’d hate to use this short format for deep introspection, but maybe we should be asking ourselves…why are we so obsessed with making candy “healthy” anyways (and marketing it to children)? Are we projecting our complicated (and conflicted) relationship with food on the next generation…pretending that the process of pursuing health is one of constant pleasure and abundance?

After trying the Bloom Sparkling Energy drinks before its official launch last year (and getting a better sense of the overall go-to-market strategy), I provided a very rare public statement on a beverage within the pre-launch phase of the commercialization cycle. And for those that might think I’m capping…you can ask AI to analyze thousands of my short- and long-form content pieces over the last decade. Yet, it would only find one other occasion where I declared pre-launch that massive success was guaranteed for an energy drink. But just like GHOST Energy a handful of years earlier…something felt special about Bloom Sparkling Energy, even as most beverage industry pundits questioned the extension strategy by the “greens supplement company.” And within our conversation…Bloom Nutrition Co-Founder (and CEO), Greg LaVecchia, explained just how insanely successful the initial year has been surrounding those Bloom Sparkling Energy drinks. Also, we discuss how…with help from the Nutrabolt (and KDP) strategic partnerships, the brand is building on those breakout wins in the beverage category by launching Bloom Pop, its answer to what fans feel the modern soda category is missing.

Subscribe - Pour Decisions Podcast

Also, an extra special thanks to Cognizin, for not only being the Title Sponsor of The Beverage Forum 2025...but supporting this awesome piece of content!

Beyond noting the obvious increased brand competition when predicting that 2025 would have a crazy marketplace setup developing within RTD protein beverages, I believed that mass and grocery retailers could start giving these products more placements outside of the typical healthy living/pharmacy merchandising sets. But while that remains to be seen within upcoming spring resets, there might be a new dark horse competitor that’s already starting to make waves in the refrigerated dairy space. Because while shelf-stable RTD protein beverages are arguably superior for a multitude of business reasons, many of those challenges can more easily be overcome by a large-scale yogurt brand like Chobani. In launching its new protein-forward yogurt drinks, Chobani is hoping to position itself within the prefect intersection of GLP-1 second-order effects and grocery protein-ification.