It appears that Hot Pockets and I now live by the same mantra, “suns out guns out." And that’s because if you purchased a package of those glorious frozen meat-filled hand pies lately, you noticed that Hot Pockets decided after 41 years to ditch its crisping sleeve. When Hot Pockets launched in 1983, that susceptor sleeve was a key part of the original packaging design that allowed for microwave cooking while maintaining a crispy texture. It was honestly a futuristic feature during a time when only about one in four American homes even had a microwave. But it appears Nestle made product changes that speed up the cooking process and enhance the overall Hot Pockets experience all without needing that microwave susceptor sleeve. I’m left wondering though…was this ultimately a low-hanging sustainability initiative or easy shrinkflation financial decision?

Mike Lindell was able to previously leverage the entrepreneurship 101 playbook…reaching levels of commercial success that most founders can only dream about. But does the “MyPillow Guy” really think revisiting that familiar strategy will be effective once again? Most successful entrepreneurs share a common thread…they solve personal pain points, seize opportunities others overlook, and remain committed to refining that idea into something impactful. And while you might dislike Mike Lindell for a variety of personal reasons, including the outwardness of his political affiliation, can we agree to temporarily separate “the man” from “businessman” and respect his journey? The idea for MyPillow, a pillow that would hold its shape through its foam design, supposedly originated from a random dream in 2004. But after diving headfirst into the project, spending hours cutting up foam, testing configurations, and eventually landing on a design that would allow the pillow to successfully hold its shape...he began selling what he claimed was “the best pillow in the world” at a mall kiosk. And while he experienced marginal success and media attention...everything changed when Mike Lindell started creating infomercials for MyPillow in 2011. By 2018, MyPillow had spent $100 million on infomercials…and at its peak, employing close to 1500 people, selling 30 million pillows, and reaching annual revenue levels of nearly $300 million. But that doesn’t mean Mike Lindell’s business dream didn’t include its fair share nightmares (especially more recently), as numerous settled (or still ongoing) lawsuits have gotten progressively more negatively impactful. And there are a million information sources that can be found on the Google machine…detailing his passionate political support, various (mostly personal) legal matters relating to those political beliefs, and linked business struggles, but my content is only focused on the initial successful growth portion of the Mike Lindell business journey. And that’s simply because it’s maybe the most applicable portion when examining his newest venture Rev7 energy drink. Though with me revealing that…are you having the same WTF moment that I had when learning about Mike Lindell shifting from non-ingestible sleep products to ingestible energy drinks? And while I’ve “seen my share of mismatched things” over the last 15 years working deeply within the energy beverages space (across the various product formats), I’ll fully admit that the Mike Lindell, MyPillow, and Rev7 energy drink strategic decision still has me a bit puzzled! But my latest first principles thinking content piece will attempt to hopefully make at least some sense of it…

The options for dietary supplements are virtually limitless at this point and whatever ingredients you want to ingest can undoubtedly be found in gummy form. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that we are living in the “golden age” of gummy supplements. But while gummies have become a staple within the supplement industry, format growth rate has normalized after the “Great Shutdown” spike. However, for you “gummy supplement haters,” don’t misinterpret that slowdown as some type of leading indicator for a near-term market correction. Yes, more consumers are realizing that gummies aren’t perfect…but they’re also uninterested in totally abandoning the flavorful format that inherently promotes usage consistency. And that changing consumer behavior undoubtedly creates a market opportunity…one that I’m confident supplement brands will fully embrace unlocking through product innovation.

Don’t you love the smell of a corporate takeover right after legacy brand portfolios experience cycles of weakness? On April 16, the board of directors of Science in Sport released a statement that confirmed it had received a possible takeover offer from the private equity firm bd-capital. Moreover, it noted that discussions were at an advanced stage…but there could be no certainty that a firm offer (with acceptable terms) will be made. But then about 24 hours after the takeover interest emerged, the legacy sports nutrition brand portfolio announced that it reached agreement on the terms of an all-cash acquisition by bd-capital. But while Science in Sport and PhD Nutrition are still two highly regarded supplement brands, the relentless pursuit of top line growth, during primarily the “Great Shutdown” era, led to some poor historic strategic decisions and an inflated operating structure. So, in the latter portion of 2023, Science in Sport established a new leadership team, performed a full business review, and reset strategic focus. And while these tough strategic decisions provided a more stable platform for future growth, and Science in Sport saw both operational and financial performance improvements…revenue did decline 17.5% YoY to around $69 million in 2024. And based on the Science in Sport Plc closing share price on April 15, the takeover offer by bd-capital represented a 24% premium…valuing the company at about $109 million. But while revenue and EDITDA multiples are a bit wonky, I’d suggest judging the purchase price beyond a set of financial metrics. Firstly, Science in Sport isn’t the typical supplement company found everywhere within the U.S. market that deploys an “asset light business model” and essentially is a marketing company. In fact, three years ago, Science in Sport invested ~$10 million to build a state-of-the-art consolidated manufacturing and logistics hub. Next, the private equity firm had closely followed Science in Sport for several years…and believed the declining revenue period presented an opportunity to acquire two strongly positioned sports nutrition brands. And since Science in Sport is within the early stage of a strategic reset, bd-capital likely established enough confidence in early turnaround indicators, that along with its operator-led investment model, sector-specific expertise to support the development of the business (it also owns Symprove and Bonusan), and access to additional capital…could unlock growth potential over a reasonable timeframe. But then, the final portion on my latest first principles content will predict how bd-capital will unlock this next phase of Science in Sport Plc growth potential? And this includes the taking full advantage of the growing endurance nutrition niche of the supplement industry, geographical expansion, and omnichannel footprint expansion. Lastly, I’m fully aware that this corporate takeover isn’t the largest, but at just over the $100M mark…it arguably represents a more typical exit event size (especially for a legacy sports nutrition brand portfolio that doesn’t generate the bulk of its sales activity from functional foods and/or functional beverages). Unfortunately, the recent collection of billion-dollar M&A transactions, that involved brands that were incubated within the supplement industry, has started to wrongfully set an expectation of what success looks like. So, while those M&A transactions should be applauded…don’t miss other categorical learning opportunities (like this one) by only obsessing over outliers.

If you remember from about two weeks ago…within the opening portion of another content piece about the specialty retail brand, I stated that “while we patiently wait for the approved chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring proposal involving Franchise Group, which is the portfolio company that owns The Vitamin Shoppe.” And I recognized that a big announcement would be coming soon because I've closely watched the court proceedings, which was a promise I made to my audience within that original Franchise Group Chapter 11 bankruptcy from more than six months ago. Moreover, at the very end of that November 2024 content, I mentioned that "while it’s highly-unlikely…The Vitamin Shoppe could be owned by a group that isn’t the current debt holders. And if that happens…well, this content series will get a whole lot more interesting!" But here we are! On April 16, 2025, Kingswood Capital Management and Performance Investment Partners announced that they had collectively entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Vitamin Shoppe from Franchise Group. And subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, the transaction is expected to close later within this current quarter. But I already know what everyone is going to think next…how much? Well…along with assuming liabilities, the private equity firms will make a cash payment of $193.5 million to purchase the assets of The Vitamin Shoppe. But after learning that information…you might be thinking, isn’t that acquisition price quite low for a specialty retail brand that was generating over a billion dollars in revenue, reporting YoY growth, and achieving operational profitability in the trailing twelve months before the May 2023 Franchise Group management buyout? If I had all the updated financial information, I could answer definitively…but compared to the revenue or EBITDA multiples of CPG brands that you usually hear me breakdown, retail trade businesses are much lower. Yet, we can assume the private equity firms involved got a great deal, especially because of the Franchise Group bankruptcy situation. Though, if The Vitamin Shoppe was never off-limits, and the Franchise Group were always looking to make deals…why not sell it before the bankruptcy filing (you know) when you arguably have more leverage to increase the potential purchase price? Well…as we’ve learned through this bankruptcy process, Franchise Group did indeed gauge market interest and initiated a broad search for any potential buyers in connection with a potential sale of The Vitamin Shoppe on a few occasions, but no actionable proposals were received. And before I dive into any of my strategic commentary or predictions, it’s probably contextually relevant to understand the asset purchase agreement stated that The Vitamin Shoppe was currently not growing revenue and failing to meet the Franchise Group profitability targets. So, this is not a specialty retailer that was thriving (or obviously in a place of strength) heading into a challenging consumer spending year…within a category reverting back to growth rates seen prior to the “Great Shutdown” era. But for the final part of my latest first principles thinking content, I'll analyze how the new ownership potentially impacts The Vitamin Shoppe. Also, I'll look for any established patterns of action within the private equity buyers...like when Kingswood Capital Management acquired G Fuel in 2023, it replaced the CEO. And that’s exactly what it will officially do when The Vitamin Shoppe transaction closes...bringing back the previous CEO Sharon Leite.

What do you call the beverage category that includes Olipop and Poppi? Gut health beverages, prebiotic drinks, functional soda, or do you have something more creative? To be completely honest, that lack of naming clarity might be the biggest problem this beverage category is experiencing right now…which means life is pretty darn good (especially for those beforementioned market share leaders that are still doubling retail sales YoY). But who do you call when you have a problem [clip]? No, not them…how about Walmart! Well…the mass retailer recently announced the introduction of its newest category designation called Modern Soda. While this merchandising set will predominately feature modern soda brands already sold at Walmart, the centralized location will draw more attention to healthy alternatives with refreshed marketing approaches that appeal more with younger consumers.

I’ve highlighted countless shockingly awesome “marketing stunts” created by CPG brands in the past, but what 5-Hour Energy recently did honestly had me questioning reality. And that’s because everyone already knows that portability is the biggest value proposition that small format energy shots have over their energy drink categorical counterparts. But what about in those rare “formal” occasions when it would be uncouth to put a 5-Hour Energy shot in your pocket? And that’s why the brand partnered with a fine jewelry designer to introduce the first-ever refillable 5-hour ENERGY Cufflinks. These 14-carat gold-plated sterling silver, black enamel, and stainless-steel cufflinks are undoubtedly the most stylish (and energetic) fashion accessory ever created…which undoubtedly comes with an equally high-energy price of $1,000 each! But don’t worry…the energy drink brand includes two bottles of 5-Hour Energy to entice you deal seekers!

Quest Chips are getting called up to the Big League…and that should make established players like Doritos nervous! In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q2 2025 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) earnings report, earnings call, and supplemental presentations that were filed on 4/9/2025 as the backdrop to provide broad nutritional snacking market insights. In fiscal Q2 2025, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down the overall portfolio performance, as Quest Nutrition beat categorical competitors in tracked channel retail takeaway (up 13% YoY). What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. And that means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. But Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for half of all retail sales...and if we analyze one layer deeper, the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 45%. The Quest Nutrition salty snacks platform now represents about 35% of the total Quest Nutrition net sales and provide a substantial share of new users to the brand. And I’ve been a broken record when it comes to stating that salty snacks are where the excitement (and focus) should be placed within Quest Nutrition, as the platform generates over $300 million in retail sales. And while that’s super impressive…I believe there’s a realistic path to doubling retail sales over the near-term. How? The single most important piece of this strategic growth playbook will revolve around expanding physical availability of the Quest salty snacks platform. So, utilizing its “categorical leadership” for leverage, Quest Nutrition has made “increasing the physical availability” of products a significant initiative within the organization…and recently landed a Quest chips mainline snacking aisle test within a large mass retailer. And if proven successful, I believe it would create a massive “snowball effect” that leads to increased display support, merchandising everywhere, and even new sales channel penetration. Also, I run through what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins and explain actions the company is taking to change it…especially against the backdrop of GLP-1 weight loss solutions. In my opinion, you’re going to see weight management brands like Atkins (and others) get repositioned on the right side of GLP-1 second-order effects through both product innovation (e.g. Atkins strong)...but most of the “innovation” will come in the targeted communication marketing strategies. Finally, OWYN had quarterly retail takeaway growth of 52% YoY...coming from a balance of distribution gains and velocity growth. Moreover, OWYN has significantly accelerated performance across all major sales channels (including ecommerce) and all key retail customers.

Is the “Age of Ozempic” reshaping The Vitamin Shoppe? In May 2024, The Vitamin Shoppe introduced a telehealth service called Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe that safely and seamlessly connects patients with licensed healthcare providers in real time…streamlining access to GLP-1 agonist medications, both branded and compounded versions (that is until the FDA recently updated its drug supply shortage list, making compounding a FD&C Act volitation). Moreover, these telehealth services are offered alongside The Vitamin Shoppe's industry-leading education resources, as well as nutritionist-recommended supplements to help optimize the weight loss journey for healthy results. So, with Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe targeting personalized care verticals, instead of a wide range of treatment and care needs like GNC Health…the better comparable company analysis would be Hims & Hers. And interestingly enough, within a piece of content from November 2021…my words arguably created the foundation for this entire Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe strategy! But a behavioral change that arguably started gaining importance about a decade prior…when more individuals began viewing themselves as consumers in the healthcare market compared to solely being patients. Because of that, consumer healthcare has begun evolving from a reactive, one-size-fits-all approach to a distinctively proactive, personalized, and integrative approach. But as you’d imagine that marketplace evolution has created immense opportunities. Though, this why specialty supplement retailers must have a foundational mindset that place customers at the center of a flexible, almost choose your own adventure style of shopping…acknowledging wellness-minded consumers are also more “solution aware” due to the sheer access to information substitutions. And this was partly why my “vision for the future” included specialty supplement retailers and pharmacy (drug channel) retailers converging into wellness retailers. Specialty shouldn’t mean singular solution, thus a retailer like The Vitamin Shoppe must continue evolving its total solutions to become a bigger part of the wellness journey. Alternatively, “trying to be everything to everyone” can be problematic, which is why I mentioned earlier about The Vitamin Shoppe essentially taking the “depth” over “breadth” page out of the Hims & Hers strategic playbook. By increasing optionality of solutions for only its most compelling valuable consumer cohorts, The Vitamin Shoppe can more effectively deliver an experience that removes barriers and provides access to better health that is approachable, personalized, and convenient. And while I believe physicians are quickly becoming more educated around how patients can manage the early phase of the process, what side effects to anticipate, and how to mitigate or manage those side effects…there’s also a significant education and nutrition support role for specialty retailers, as consumers look for help navigating this new, confusing “Age of Ozempic” world. But with the launch of its new private label brand, GLP-1 Support from Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe…the specialty retailer recognized it was well-positioned to fill a critical gap in the market for tailored nutritional support. But then for the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content, I wanted to give my outlook for Whole Health Rx by The Vitamin Shoppe.

We’ve all gotten to know Alexa and Siri quite well over the last decade, but are you interested in making a new friend? PepsiCo recently debuted its Gatorade AI Hydration Coach, Anna, that can provide consumers with personalized hydration advice based on 40 years of Gatorade Sports Science Institute expertise. While this AI chatbot is still being tested with broader availability coming later in 2025, the technology appears to be linked with Gatorade GX sweat patches. After finishing a workout session (or activity), you can quickly scan the Gatorade GX sweat patch with your phone to reveal personalized hydration data focused on helping you refuel and recover. I’d assume Anna will also integrate seamlessly with Gatorade Smart GX water bottles, but more importantly suggest complementary Gatorade sports nutrition products (that have been a major categorical priority for PepsiCo leadership of late).