I bet Nestle wishes it could go back and experience that “Great Shutdown” fueled demand spike again (because it went by too fast), but allowing some VMS brands to leave the nest could be its next step towards finding new growth! Within the prepared remarks section, Nestle leadership noted during the first-half 2025 earnings call that it had launched a review of its underperforming vitamins, minerals, supplements (VMS) portfolio…and that it could lead to the divestment of some brands. But wait…wasn’t it just four short years ago when Nestle completed the $5.75 billion acquisition of The Bountiful Company? Yep! Nevertheless, I'll replay a contextually relevant portion of my conversation with Teddie Townsend (Managing Director - CG Sawaya Partners) from last year that will help you better understand what’s really going on inside Nestle (and the entire supplement industry M&A strategic acquirer landscape). But when we recorded that conversational content, it wasn’t publicly known yet that Nestle would be making a leadership change…with the new CEO (i,e. Laurent Freixe) taking over in September 2024. And it meant a shift in companywide strategy naturally happened…accompanied by a clear action plan to drive performance and transformation. Additionally, the Nestle Virtuous Circle strategic framework included an element about addressing underperformers to support growth…and specifically sharpening focus within Nestle Health Science. With a diverse portfolio of brands across VMS, Active Nutrition, and Medical Nutrition…Nestle Health Science has built a leading position, and the segment generates slightly less than $8.5 billion in revenue annually. And while Nestle still believes VMS is an attractive category with clear growth drivers…new leadership is focused on the premium end of the market, which is deemed to have the highest potential. So, going forward…Nestle Health Science will focus on its global premium VMS brands such as Garden of Life, Solgar, and Pure Encapsulations, as Nestle believes its capabilities in science, innovation, and brand-building give it a distinct competitive edge. Alternatively, Nestle launched a strategic review of its mainstream and value VMS brands, including (but not limited to) Nature’s Bounty, Osteo-Bi Flex, Puritan’s Pride, and private label. And though this likely divestment activity is consistent with the “focus and simplification” strategic growth approach of Nestle’s new leadership…it basically dismantles a substantial portion of The Bountiful Company acquisition, which arguably was considered one of the predecessor’s (i.e. Mark Schneider) most substantial moves throughout his 7-year pursuit of transforming the company into a health and nutrition powerhouse. But then…for the final portion of my latest first principles content piece, I'll explore two different “what’s next” scenarios; who likely acquires these Nestle Health Science VMS brands under review and where I believe Nestle Health Science will strategically focus after the proverbial divestment dust settles.

By now, you’ve undoubtedly heard the business news that Keurig Dr Pepper entered into a definitive agreement to acquire JDE Peet's worldwide portfolio of beloved coffee brands. Under the terms of the agreement, KDP will purchase all outstanding ordinary shares of JDE Peet's…valuing the all-cash transaction at approximately $18.3 billion. And you might be thinking, “wow I didn’t realize KDP was Mr. Money Bags,” especially after I mentioned in content recently that the almost $2 billion GHOST Lifestyle acquisition last year was its largest deal to date. But to understand what’s really going on…it requires a history lesson that begins with Johann Adam Benckiser founding an industrial chemicals business in 1823. Though, the real business history nerds will recognize the initials of Johann Adam Benckiser for another reason. JAB Holding Company was formed in 2012, as a partner-led investment firm, with the consolidation of all business assets. During that early formation process, JAB Holding Company created the Coffee & Beverages Investment Platform via the take private transactions of Peet's Coffee and D.E Masterblenders. Then, a few years later…that investment platform expanded when it merged with the coffee division of Mondelez International (essentially creating the JDE portion of JDE Peet’s). But in 2016, JAB Holding Company was involved in another coffee-related “take private transaction,” this time acquiring Keurig Green Mountain for $13.9 billion. Then, in 2018, Keurig Green Mountain acquired Dr Pepper Snapple Group for $18.7 billion…with JAB Holding Company owning (at the time) 73% of the combined Keurig Dr Pepper company. And while ownership percentages have fluctuated greatly over the years (especially on the KDP side), all roads still lead back to JAB Holding Company (even though you will see only a minor mention of it buried within the JDE Peet's transaction details section of the press release). So, what I’m saying is JAB Holding Company basically created both JDE Peet’s and KDP…and thus, JAB Holding Company can essentially recreate JDE Peet’s and KDP! After the M&A transaction closes, KDP plans to separate into two independent, U.S.-listed publicly traded companies…currently given generic “Global Coffee Co.” and “Beverage Co.” placeholder names. Yet, with a portfolio of iconic and emerging brands (generating more than $11 billion in annual net sales), a differentiated and expanding DSD distribution system, and a proven, capital-efficient “build, buy, partner” growth model, “Beverage Co.” will ACTUALLY not change much (at least initially). Instead, “Beverage Co.” will significantly improve due to sharper focused decision-making, tailored capital allocation strategies, and enhanced optionality overall. Essentially, the previous KDP “Refreshment Beverages” segment gets better through simplification. In just two short years, KDP went from getting its categorical ass whipped to controlling the most intriguing “active nutrition” brand portfolio by (1) acquiring a large stake in the maker of C4 Energy, (2) strategically partnering with Electrolit and Black Rifle Coffee, (3) acquiring GHOST, and (4) getting access to Bloom Nutrition through a proxy investment by Nutrabolt. But then, for the final part of my latest first principles content piece, I'll reconsider an element from my previous KDP “active nutrition” brand portfolio content…and examine possible new contagion effects from this separation announcement.

Olipop. Poppi. Simply Pop. Culture Pop. I imagine consumers confuse these brands…especially when they mostly look the same and talk the same. But instead of providing you with a dissertation on the effects of categorical amalgamation…I really wanted to highlight how me and my fellow Midwesterners (especially from Ohio) have been right all along! It’s “POP” not “SODA.” Though, as the beverage category expands around a predetermined set of principles…it becomes increasingly ripe to be challenged. And maybe just maybe that challenger brand will be Bloom Nutrition, which is set release its shelf-stable Bloom Pop at Walmart by the end of summer. After skyrocketing up the rankings list of top-selling energy drinks in its first year, this “heat check type” innovation decision ultimately reflects how Bloom, Nutrabolt, and Keurig Dr Pepper are evolving together.

Decades later…its massive influence on the U.S. food system is still being felt. So, why should we believe the tobacco industry won’t be involved somehow again as more consumers move closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality? Through the direct ownership of U.S. food companies between the 1980s and early-2000s, tobacco companies greatly impacted the American diet (maybe forever). But it one of the 20th century’s most influential (yet invisible) characters, Edward Bernays, who's considered the architect of modern mass manipulation, that's responsible for indirectly linking the tobacco industry to societal “health and wellness” standards for the last century. And maybe that also insinuates you shouldn’t be super surprised when I tell you that as part of its mission to build “a better tomorrow,” British American Tobacco laid out a strategic vision in 2020 to reduce the scale of its business within combustible tobacco products…and among other initiatives created its BTomorrow Ventures corporate venture capital arm investing in various brands operating within the intersecting CPG categories of functional foods, functional beverages, and nutritional supplements. Also, beyond BTomorrow Ventures, British American Tobacco has a wholly owned subsidiary called The Water Street Collective, which is essentially an agency mashup of product developers and brand creatives. With the first commercialized product launch being small-format RTD functional beverages…it appears British American Tobacco wants to test if today’s more-sophisticated consumer market is interested in kicking old “bad habits” by embracing new “wellness” products that target the same benefit area. Because here’s the thing…while combustible tobacco products might not be showing any signs of a comeback, that doesn’t mean nicotine isn’t going through a resurgence. So, is recent product launch from The Water Street Collective signaling that Big Tobacco will soon launch nicotine RTD beverages? And I know by now…many of you have seen the images (or articles about) Nicotina Energy floating around the Internet, which seems to support this notion of nicotine RTD beverages becoming the next functional beverage category, but no way! FDA has been very clear for decades that nicotine cannot be a food additive…plus the ingredient does not meet the standard of being a dietary supplement. Instead, Big Tobacco is still singing off the hymn book that Edward Bernays gave them almost a century earlier. And whether it’s deploying the entire “creation of circumstances” strategic playbook or not…the fact remains that Big Tobacco is already benefitting greatly from those self-reported (and clinically supported) functional benefits of nicotine. ZYN (owned by Philip Morris International) and its competitive product equivalents have exploded in popularity over the last few years…largely thanks to users on social media platforms talking about how these nicotine pouches suppress their appetite (sounds familiar doesn’t it) and cognitive enhancement (which is tied to a newer appeal of modern masculinity). Also, according to Edward Bernays, “people must be trained to desire, to want new things even before the old have been entirely consumed.” Does that mean Big Tobacco really wants to transition away from the old go-to method of selling consumers functionality? I'd consider it unlikely, but that has seemingly opened a nascent segment of functional CPG products called caffeine pouches.

No longer simply known as that chalky powder gym bros take for bigger muscles…creatine is currently undergoing a significant metamorphosis. Though, what happens during this final stage could forever define the creatine market! While creatine was first discovered in muscle tissue in 1832, it took another 160 years before a new era of sports nutrition was created from the pivotal creatine supplementation human study conducted by Dr. Roger Harris. And after Linford Christie, the Barcelona Olympic Games gold medal winning sprinter at 100 meters, mentioned the powerful effects of creatine supplementation in an August 1992 newspaper article...the first commercial creatine supplement hit retail store shelves a year later and quickly gained popularity and widespread adoption among male athletes and fitness enthusiasts. Though, over the next almost quarter-century…it was a relatively boring growth period for the creatine market, with continued research solidifying the ingredient’s effectiveness in muscle strength enhancement. Yet, it’s this pupation developmental stage, which creatine has been undergoing lately…that very well could be what leads to substantial change across the marketplace, as the scientific flywheel is still spinning quickly! And that’s because while many nutraceutical ingredients were popularized within that shadowy niche of sports nutrition, an ever-growing body of research with positive results has broadened use cases and expanded demographics…making them almost must-have staples for everyone. Nevertheless, researchers proving through studies that this nutraceutical ingredient has more than one purpose…isn’t all that commercially impactful when you consider that only a microscopic percentage of the consumer market peruses PubMed frequently. Said another way…when a new creatine study gets published on the Internet, does it make a sales register ring? If you picked up on my adaption of the “tree falls in the forest” philosophical thought experiment, then you might guess where I’m going next…as I believe the final “adult” metamorphic stage will be defined by CPG entrepreneurs translating the evolving scientific flywheel of creatine into business ventures. By leveraging a consumer-centric strategic process of questioning, thinking, and subsequently experimenting across various go-to-market roadmaps…entrepreneurs can (and will) successfully reframe creatine, broaden use cases, and discover many new audiences beyond the gym. Though, the final portion of my latest first principles content will explore a few areas that will undoubtedly drive the future of the creatine market…from branding to formats (i.e. creatine gummies) and broadened use cases (and occasions).

When the creator and host of the number one listened to podcast amongst women globally decided to launch a hydration beverage…it sparked tons of both positive and negative commentary from industry pundits. But could Alex Cooper be the sports drinks category version of Alanu Nu creator Katy Hearn…that was a major catalyst for broadening the appeal of energy drinks to female consumers? Well…it’s been a half-year since Unwell Hydration launched, and you’re probably wondering if Alex Cooper made the beverage industry “Call Her Daddy” yet. In all honestly…not even close, at least not yet, but the beverage brand is now generating around $2 million in tracked channel retail sales monthly. Though, with its Nestle strategy partnership, and intentionally throttled distribution strategy right now, Unwell Hydration could easily see substantial growth soon. But if you’re curious how that compares to the market leader Gatorade…let’s just say the PepsiCo brand generates basically 10x that retail sales amount every single day.

Will FitLife Brands be able to show the “one man’s trash” proverb is an effective growth strategy within the supplement industry? But for anyone new to these quarterly content pieces, FitLife Brands sells more than 250 SKUs across 13 supplement brands…each with a slightly different product portfolio and sales channel strategy. In total, the FitLife Brands portfolio is sold through more than 20K retail locations globally. But throughout this content, you’ll hear me categorize the FitLife Brands portfolio into three segments: Legacy FitLife Brands, Mimi’s Rock Corporation, and MusclePharm. Though, everything will be changing very soon with the recent acquisition of Irwin Naturals. In the second quarter of 2025, FitLife Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FTLF) had revenues of $16.1 million...which was down 5% YoY. But while there's strategic initiatives going on that involve the legacy FitLife Brands and Mimi's Rock segments, the most intriguing activity within FitLife Brands is also currently its smallest segment (i.e. MusclePharm). In the second quarter of 2025, MusclePharm segment revenue was just under $2.6 million...which decreased 4% YoY. But maybe you’re hearing that result…thinking to yourself “that’s not too terrible,” and I’d typically agree (if it wasn’t due to self-inflicted strategic wounds). After learning that FitLife Brands intended to bid on the bankrupt assets of MusclePharm, I was generally excited because it seemed to “be a good shepherd to the brand in the latter part of its life cycle.” Also, the pattern of conservative decision-making had me thinking FitLife Brands fully understood it’s a turnaround marathon (and not a sprint). Moreover, it was super simple to see that the last 7+ years of MusclePharm brand mismanagement had provided a sizable amount of unlocked value that was just waiting to come out. Furthermore, doing the required “hard work” upfront (aka running the turnaround marathon) to rebuild the foundation of MusclePharm for the long haul would inherently unlock enough short-term financial results to appease shareholders around the acquisition ROI. Yet…that isn’t what happened thus far! Instead, FitLife Brands has surprised me (and not in a good way), as leadership has been unable to learn from past MusclePharm experiences that in hindsight were major underlying driver of its failure. It started with “becoming a victim of product line extension creep” but quickly progressed to chasing ready-to-drink protein beverage (and ready-to-eat protein bar) mirages. Finally, I'll discuss the recent decision of FitLife Brands to find potentially “easier growth” through more M&A opportunities. During the first half of 2025, Irwin Naturals generated revenue of $33.1 million. And since the first half 2025 revenue of FitLife Brands was basically a million dollars less…the acquisition of Irwin Naturals effectively doubles the top-line revenue of new combined company.

The brand portfolio of Glanbia Performance Nutrition is the definition of a beige flag...not offensive, but not particularly inspiring or exciting either! Glanbia Plc (LON:GLB) is a multibillion-dollar global nutrition company that's currently comprised of three divisions that span across the B2B supply chain (i.e. Health & Nutrition and Dairy Nutrition) and branded products (Performance Nutrition). “Health & Nutrition” is a leading global ingredients solutions business, providing value added ingredient and flavor solutions to a range of attractive, high-growth end markets. In the first half of 2025, revenue increased by 18% YoY. Also, Glanbia announced the acquisition of Sweetmix, a Brazil-based nutritional premix and ingredients solutions business that will reportedly enable the Health & Nutrition segment to continue its Latin America expansion. “Dairy Nutrition” is the number one producer of American-style cheddar cheese in the U.S. market, but more importantly (for my audience) the number one producer of whey protein isolate…and provides a wide range of dairy and functional protein solutions. In the first half of 2025, revenue increased by 14.1%. The brands in the Glanbia Performance Nutrition portfolio include; Optimum Nutrition, BSN, think!, Isopure, Amazing Grass, and SlimFast. Glanbia Performance Nutrition had first half 2025 revenue that declined by 3.8% YoY, driven by a volume decrease of 3.5% and a price decrease of 0.3%. Additionally, I'll dive deeper into Glanbia Performance Nutrition geographical, sales channel, product format, and categorial performance. As part of the branded products portfolio part of the group-wide transformation program announced last November, Glanbia had begun the sale process on the weight management brand SlimFast (that was acquired for $350 million in 2018) and announced it signed an agreement for the sale of Body & Fit (that was acquired in 2017). So, if negative impact from non-core brands were excluded from the first half performance, GPN revenue would have only declined 1.5% YoY. Optimum Nutrition, which was the initial M&A transaction in 2008 that created the GPN division, now represents 67% of the total revenue. In the last year, Optimum Nutrition generated revenue of approximately $1.2 billion. The other largest share of GPN revenue is the healthy lifestyle brand portfolio makes up 19% and includes ISOPURE, think!, and Amazing Grass. While these healthy lifestyle portfolio brands have collectively performed relatively strong over the last several years, revenue was only up 0.6% YoY in the first half of 2025. And for the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content, I'll focus my “beige flag” assessment by examining GPN revenue by product format...and discuss the new ISOPURE protein water, think! crispy squares, and several new powdered supplement innovations like Optimum Nutrition creatine plus. I'll end with a discussion around what should be the strategic "north star" for Glanbia Performance Nutrition.

Talk to enough beverage industry oldheads…and eventually a few will share their “rise and fall” thoughts on The Coca-Cola Company’s Venturing and Emerging Brands (VEB) unit. Launched in 2007, the VEB business unit was tasked with identifying and supporting the growth of beverage brands with billion-dollar potential through investment or acquisition. Essentially, VEB was a way for the beverage giant to better manage smaller brands…allowing them to move quicker (and fail faster). But judging VEB can drastically change based on snapshots over time and if you’re holding The Coca-Cola Company to this absurd standard that success only means billion-dollar generational brands. So, maybe you could point to relative miscalculations with cold-pressed juice brand Suja or the more recent shuttering of Honest Tea or ZICO coconut water…but when talking about corporate venture capital, it only takes a massive success to balance everything out! And when we mention The Coca-Cola Company’s VEB business unit…you can’t overlook fairlife, which is now the fast-growing billion-dollar portfolio brand and has become absolutely crucial to the future of Coca-Cola.

Alani Nu is experiencing “scary-level growth,” but that shouldn’t be concerning…as Celsius Holdings leadership doesn’t get spooked easily! Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) had quarterly revenue of $739.3 million, which was up 84% YoY. Excluding the Alani Nu acquisition-related financial impact, CELSIUS brand revenue grew 9% YoY. And if you were wondering about Alani Nu, it’s second quarter revenue was $301.5 million…which equates to around 106% YoY growth! According to Circana last 13-week retail sales data, CELSIUS increased by 3% YoY...remaining the third-largest energy drink brand in the category with a dollar share of 11%. Alani Nu increased retail sales 129% YoY and is now the dominant fourth player in the U.S. energy drinks market with dollar share of 6.3%. If we look at Celsius Holdings combined brand portfolio, it reached 17.3% of dollar share for the last 13-week period ending June 29, 2025...ranking it third and trailing only Red Bull and the combined Monster Beverage portfolio. Additionally, if you were to consider the last 52-week period ending July 20, 2025…Celsius Holdings retail sales were over $4 billion, surpassing the combined sales of the next eight energy drink brands. Celsius Holdings has experienced massive growth in convenience stores, foodservice (e.g. fast food restaurants), mass retailers like Walmart, the club channel in retailers like Costco, and the Amazon marketplace. And international expansion presents significant opportunity for incremental growth over the next three to five years. With the Celsius brand basically at full distribution now…growth will be unlocked through a strategic growth framework that John Fieldly recently branded as “more people,” “more places,” and “more often.” And while Alani Nu will obviously be integrated into many aspects of that strategic growth framework...it will currently be done outside of the PepsiCo distribution network. If you remember (in my initial content) after the M&A deal was officially announced, I made the strategic recommendation regarding Alani Nu independent DSD distribution network continuity…as I believed it provided Celsius Holdings the best near-term strategic plan to (1) minimize platform “key customer risk,” (2) strengthen focus on other business integration elements, but (3) lower near-term cannibalization risk significantly. But beyond the distribution strategy difference, Alani Nu is also “leaps and bounds” ahead of the CELSIUS brand in leveraging LTO product innovation. Alani Nu showed extraordinary strength, led by Sherbet Swirl and Cotton Candy. But believe it or not…expectations are even higher heading into the next quarterly reporting period, as Alani Nu customers are going wild across social media about the fan favorite Witch's Brew flavor recently returning to stores (along with a funky new LTO flavor Pumpkin Cream). But or the Celsius Holdings portfolio to meaningfully expand its household penetration beyond the current 43%, it must stay culturally relevant with the next generation of modern energy drinkers by continuing to invest in brand awareness activities that focus on driving trial and loyalty.