Rabbit Hole Brief: Small Business

September CPI rises to 3.7 percent year over year with core at 2.6 percent, putting an October Fed hike back on the table, and the Beige Book shows diesel costs passing through every district. Plus: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley close bank earnings, M&T grows SBA 7(a) lending while the industry shrinks, a new home-accessibility franchise launch, a lease-escalation audit tactic, todays 8:30 data cluster, and the October 15 filing deadline.

September CPI lands at 8:30am ET with headline inflation expected near 3.6% on energy while core cools, and yields start the day below last week's 24-year highs. Plus: big banks post a combined 1.75 billion in Q3 profits led by Goldman Sachs, existing home sales mark the slowest two months of the year, a franchise rollout lesson from Beyond Oil, a supplier price-hold tactic, and tomorrow's PPI, retail sales, and October 15 tax deadline.

NFIB optimism slips 0.8 points to 97.9 as uncertainty grows, the ten-year Treasury eases to about 5.20% as bond markets reopen, and JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo kick off bank earnings. Plus: a new SBA and Department of War capital path for defense suppliers, today's existing home sales, a Crunch Fitness franchise opening, a text-list tactic you own, and tomorrow's CPI preview.

Oil falls after the President announces a Russia-Ukraine energy truce that neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed, while Brent still holds above $100 after a violent weekend in the Gulf. Plus: Michigan consumer sentiment drops to 46.3 with current conditions at a record low, what Wednesday's CPI split between headline and core means for a possible December Fed hike, a co-branding lesson from franchising, and a budget-tier tactic that protects your main price.

Oil eases slightly after the President says the U.S. won't strike Iran before the midterms, though Brent still holds above $100. Plus: mortgage rates reach 7.40%, what next week's CPI report means for the Fed's December decision and your borrowing costs, and the week-ahead calendar for Main Street.

Brent crude tops $104 on shipping attacks and Gulf shutdowns, pushing the 30-year Treasury back toward 24-year highs. Plus: the Fed minutes point to one more hike this year, the October 15 tax and retirement deadlines are one week away, Red Robin's $115M franchise-led refinancing, and a 10-day early holiday pre-sale tactic to pull cash forward.

Brent crude climbs past $100 and the 30-year Treasury touches its highest level since 2002 — what that means for fuel, rent, and borrowing. Plus: today's Fed minutes and the December rate outlook, the merchant-cash-advance lien trap that can quietly kill a cheaper refinance, and a 30-day fuel and energy check you can run this week.

TD Bank's Eyes on Growth survey finds 99% of small businesses now use AI — and most say it's growing headcount, not cutting it. Plus: a $93.1M securitization shows lenders still back Main Street, tomorrow's Fed minutes could move December rate odds, and a six-step fraud checklist you can run this week.

Monday's briefing for small-business owners: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.28%, its highest since 2007, and what it means for your borrowing; the SBA's new October 1 lending rules — fee waivers for manufacturers, food supply chain, and rural businesses, plus tougher real-earnings tests for business buyers; September's weak jobs report and what NFIB's hiring data says about Main Street; and this week's practical tactic, a one-week customer review sprint.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years — and signaled higher for longer. Chip and Melody break down what it costs Main Street, why small-business growth expectations just hit a four-year low, the SBA's doubled loan limit, the tax deadlines hiding in mid-October, and one practical tactic: getting paid faster. Rabbit Hole Brief: Small Business is a weekday morning briefing for owners and operators.