Radar Podcast

Bitcoin surged this week on a record wave of short liquidations, and gold broke out alongside it, but equities never confirmed the move. We explain why this looks like a short squeeze rather than the start of a real trend, and why 4.75% on the 10 year is the level that decides whether the debasement trade holds. We also get into stagflation, the state of the consumer, and Warsh heading into Jackson Hole.Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We break down why the S&P is at record highs while the AI names lag, and why leadership is rotating from semis into software. We cover the in line CPI print, collapsing hike odds, and what Warsh is doing to the curve. We are still risk off, and we get into the consumer, the CapEx boom, and where AI actually makes money.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 227

The S&P printed an all-time high on an Iran headline that's fallen through every other time it's shown up, semis are still 15% off their highs, and until our system flips we think this is a fake out. We lay out why the AI CapEx trade already peaked, and why the buyback-to-revenue switch that funded the entire move only gets flipped once. Then we get into real yields back at 2023 highs, why that's a tightening force that ices out the consumer, and why we took profits on Cloudflare after a 50% run.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 226

We sold all of our tech on July 14 and we have not bought it back. The AI CapEx trade that carried the Nasdaq is fractured, Leopold got liquidated, and the vibes that took SanDisk to 2,400 are not healing in a straight line. We break down why this is not a dip buying environment, why rates are the most underrated risk on the board, and what has to align before we put leverage back on.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 225

We went full risk off on the 14th, and the worst case scenario we've been warning about is now playing out: inflation impulses re-accelerating on the Hormuz escalation, growth impulses dead in the water, and a 63% probability of shifting from stagflation into deflation. We break down why the CapEx receivers like Micron are the market's only support beam, why consumer discretionary rolling over kills the rotation thesis. We also cover rate hikes getting priced into a supply shock, and whether Trump has any room left to taco.Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We break down whether this is a market crash or just a rotation as capital flees semis and the AI CapEx trade into financials, healthcare, and utilities. Our regime model has flipped to stagflation, and we explain why we stay positioned for the regime we're in even though expansion is still our base case. The consumer isn't showing up, inflation impulses won't fall, and we walk through exactly what has to happen for this rotation to resolve before it turns into a selloff.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 223

The market is at an inflection point, equities have not gone anywhere since inflation risks have come back on the table. We dive into the risks of an inflation resurgeance and the weak consumer. Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We break down why the inflation scare is already fading, with the 4.2% print looking transitory off tariffs and Iran rather than real consumer demand. Then we get into the two-economy split, the price insensitive hyperscalers bidding up memory while Micron has record margins and the consumer gets crushed.Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We break down Warsh's first FOMC presser and what less Fed forward guidance means for markets, then our latest Ledger post: why disinflation is the bull case, the case for an expansion regime, and how the weak consumer finally rotates in.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 220

In this episode we break down the SpaceX IPO and why we think a $1.7 trillion valuation sets up a retail trap rather than the deal everyone is chasing, including the wave of insider divesting and our case for a Tesla merger down the road. We also work through the Iran energy shock, a 4.2% CPI print driven almost entirely by oil, and whether this inflation is structural or transitory while the Fed stays cornered. Then we get into the AI enterprise stimulus flywheel and the widening split between the companies feeding the data center boom and the consumer brands getting left behind.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 219