In this RadioFinance session, we looked at economic recovery scenarios post-pandemic. John Gong, professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics, shared how history shows possible outcomes to the crisis, with economies experiencing rebounds and a period of boom after recessions.
Charles Bean, former deputy governor for monetary policy at the Bank of England, emphasised that recovery pace depends on both government decisions and consumer behaviour. On the other hand, Taimur Baig, managing director and chief economist at DBS Bank, stressed that although stimulus measures help economies, short-term “band aid” solutions will be ineffective and may stagger recovery process, causing longer term damage. Post-pandemic policies will also define economic trajectory.
The key points that emerged from the discussion were:
• Governments focus on funding SMEs and creating jobs to re-energise the economy
• Chinese authorities are channelling resources to the ‘consumption’ side of the economy, with a focus on upgrading soft infrastructure such as the rollout of 5G services
• Markets are pricing in a deglobalisation bias, with elements such as cost-push inflation and lower returns to capital, but these fail to show in numbers
• Business models will change as companies undergo structural and operational transformations