Random Acts of Urbanism

My video from earlier this week on Wellington Street is here. Otherwise, we discuss how lacking in riz everyone is, how our system can elect a mayor with barely a third of the vote, the political ghost of Jim Watson and how progressives are seemingly not as united as they might be.

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Sometime in the first year of this mandate, about three years ago now, I told someone (I forget whom, which is convenient for them) that Mark Sutcliffe would be a one-term mayor.

Maybe he’s about to prove me wrong. It’s possible. I’ve been wrong before, and it’s fine; my ego doesn’t bruise easily. But with the election bearing down on us, I want to tell you what made me say it back then, and why I still believe that if he doesn’t win re-election this October, the whole thing was visible from January 2023.

That’s when the decision was made to reopen Wellington Street.

You’ll remember, those of you who were here, that we’d just lived through the convoy protest that turned into an occupation of downtown Ottawa for the better part of a month. After the trucks were finally cleared, the city blocked vehicle access to that stretch of Wellington. Which made obvious sense. Having just spent weeks removing trucks from the street, we were not eager to invite them back.

But then: nothing happened.

We kept that chunk of Wellington closed to traffic for about a year, and we did nothing with it. It just sat there, an empty street in front of the Parliament of a G7 country. Drivers who used to take that route were frustrated at the detour — which, let the record show, was maybe sixty metres, but drivers do not like detours, even small ones. And those of us who saw a golden opportunity grew frustrated for the opposite reason.

Because think about what that street is. It runs directly in front of the Parliament buildings. It’s the first thing tens of thousands of visitors see when they come to the nation’s capital. My friend Toon Dreessen has a phrase for what it could have been: a place for people. Somewhere with things to do and places to sit. A café. Food. Public, clean and accessible bathrooms. Rotating exhibits, themes, festivals, games.

And none of this required a fortune. You want to experiment? Put out free hoops for kids. That’s fifty bucks. Try things. See what people use. Keep what works.

We tried nothing. And after about a year of trying nothing, the City of Ottawa concluded that nothing wasn’t working, and put the cars back.

I wrote a rather nasty column about it at the time, to this day one of the most popular things on this Substack, the gist of which was: we tried nothing, it didn’t work, what the hell, let’s put back the cars. I was genuinely upset. And a few weeks later, at a public event, the mayor came over to me. He told me he was working on a plan. That I’d be happy in the end. That what they were working on would be very good for Wellington Street.

There were witnesses to what I said next: “If that happens, Mark Sutcliffe, I will be the one leading the parade.” And I meant it. I don’t mind being wrong. If you turn Wellington Street into a world-class place for the capital of a G7 country, I will be at the very front of that parade, twirling the baton.

There are no parades.

Here’s why I’m dredging up a three-year-old street fight, and why it matters more than 500 metres of asphalt: the way that decision was made is emblematic of this entire mayoralty. It is a mandate in which the least amount of imagination is exerted at all times. Go back through the record and you’ll notice the pattern. Whenever there’s a decision to be made, the least imaginative option wins. The path of least resistance wins. We don’t try anything bold, not even on a small scale, not even at hoops-for-fifty-bucks scale. The only exception I can think of, the pilot program Street Seats, was highly dependent on outside folks (it’s still a great idea and those parkettes are well used, but not replicated elsewhere). We only agree to things that arrive pre-packaged by other people and managed by them. Think Lansdowne 2.0. Think the LeBreton Flats arena we’re supposedly getting (details have been scarce lately) a public-private partnership in which the city’s role is essentially to let other people do things with their private money and hope it turns out okay.

That’s not strategy. And while a council shares in it, the mayor sits at the head of the table; the accountability is mostly his to bear.

The bitter little coda is that reopening Wellington didn’t even deliver for drivers. There was little to be gained, and little was duly gained. I was there again a couple of days ago: it’s a mess of construction, down to one tiny lane, and it doesn’t flow well. Meanwhile, everyone who drives had long since adapted. We have Albert. We have Slater. We have the Quebec side. The reopening did next to nothing for people who need to drive through that part of town, and it enraged those of us who saw what the street could have become, for Ottawans and for the thousands upon thousands who travel here to see their capital.

Putting the cars back was simply the easiest, least imaginative, least-effort thing to do. So that’s what we did. And I remember thinking — this was early, remember; he was elected in October 2022 and this was January 2023 — if this is how he makes decisions, this mayor is a one-term mayor. Nobody loves a leader who never tries anything. Who is always cautious, always covering his backside, always taking the path of least resistance, and whose sole claim to fame, if you’re the kind of voter who prizes it above all, is that he’s kept taxes reasonably low.

Perhaps too low, because now there’s no money to maintain our infrastructure. That’s the thing about low taxes nobody puts on the lawn sign: you don’t have money to pay for the stuff you actually need.

So here’s the test October brings. If your number one issue, your only issue, is the lowest possible tax bill, then he’s your guy, and if a majority of Ottawa agrees with you, Mark Sutcliffe will be a two-term mayor and I’ll have been wrong. I’ve been wrong before. I don’t mind.

But if the people of Ottawa want a leader who leads; who proposes ideas and solutions, who asks around, who consults for real, who hunts for the best possible ideas to deliver the best value for everyone who lives here and everyone who visits this highly touristic city… Then he’s really not our guy.

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We have some words for the former provincial politician turned potential mayoral race disruptor who, after all, will stay home. And for the St. Laurent LRT station fiasco that reminds everyone what’s wrong with the governance of this city.

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In our weekly discussion about the state of the race, Evan Potter and I talk numbers (*lots* of numbers), yellow-orangish lights flashing at Sutcliffe HQ and those rumours Lisa MacLeod might convince herself she wants to be mayor.

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In our weekly chat, Evan Potter and I discuss Mark Sutcliffe’s fear-based campaign, who’s already positioning for 2030 and I blow a gasket over websites.

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In my weekly conversation with Evan Potter we discuss campaign events we attended this week as well as the renoviction bylaw and the infuriating lack of comms when it comes to unscheduled loud explosions late at night on a Thursday.

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What kind of campaign is Ottawa having in 2026: change, anger, or status quo? Along with Evan Potter, we dig into the week’s numbers: the Leiper campaign’s eyebrow-raising internal figure of 43.67%, the 12-point gap with Liaison Strategies’ June poll, and what Polymarket Canada’s thinly traded odds do (and don’t) tell us. Plus: why organization wins campaigns, the “X factor” of 40,000 irregular voters, a polling 101 on probability samples, and early read-outs on the prep work of all four major candidates.

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A lot to discuss with Evan Potter this week, including that old saying from Kim Campbell (ask your parents) that elections aren’t the time to get into a debate about serious issues. Sigh. We also talk about this being the “phoney war” part of the campaign and you may have to google that one, too.

Here is the diving pool in Bells Corners that is closed for general decrepitude.

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Here is a story that describes the latest Liaison poll. Evan published a longer post on various scenarios based on these numbers, which I highly recommend.

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I knew it was a good idea to team up with an academic to analyze and dissect the 2026 municipal campaign. Evan brings the data and I provide the sass and the occasional swear word.

As of the time of recording (Friday afternoon), there were five candidates for mayor: Mark Sutcliffe (incumbent, favourite to win so far), progressive Jeff Leiper in second place, conservative Alex Lawson in third place, progressive Neil Saravanamuttoo in fourth and Zed Chebib dead last. Of the 24 councillors, 22 said they were running again and of those, six are unchallenged so far. The only two wards that are open are Kitchissippi where I live (it was represented by Jeff Leiper who’s now running for mayor) and Stittsville where eight candidates are vying to replace outgoing Coun. Glen Gower.

We talk about accountability, lobbying and transit. Yesterday I saw the first full LRT train in months! I was cycling home from Plant bath after a vigorous swim workout, going uphill, and I was still going faster than the train. Some transit system we’ve got.

The part of our conversation I enjoyed the most was Evan noticing that in a handful of rural and conservative wards, there may be a way for Alex Lawson to deny enough votes to Mark Sutcliffe to cost the mayor his second term. Obviously it’s too early to tell at this point, but the likelihood of that happening isn’t zero, judging by the mood in those wards. It would be funny, though, if Lawson managed to eat into Sutcliffe’s numbers enough that progressive Leiper squeezed through.

All this to say, I am super interested to hear from voters in rural wards. Especially those of you who voted for Sutcliffe last time and might be tempted by a more conservative candidate this year. I’d love to know what you’re thinking and why. Get in touch!

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