Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.

Chapters

00:00 – The Fed Put & Market Expectation

00:51 – Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview

01:22 – FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda

02:30 – Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact

06:18 – The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance

11:15 – Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed

13:36 – The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put

15:38 – The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics

18:18 – Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present)

25:34 – Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance

30:30 – Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach

33:41 – Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up

Charts Used:

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https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png

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Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect?

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent

00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview

02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle

06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market

09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio

11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model

17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending

26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities

28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable

32:42 - Closing Remarks

Charts Used:

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/AIvsNonAICorrelation072426.png

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/CAPERatiovsReturns072426.png

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/456Markets072426.png

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT072426

Hello everyone welcome to the Rational Dissent Podcast where we discuss everything from markets and the economy to the Fed and AI, and we stress test conventional wisdom and consensus views.