Rational Dissent

The Treasury secretary is hoping to lower yields by increasing buybacks but the effectiveness of such tools has diminished in a high inflation era.

Chapters

00:00 - Teaser & Introduction

01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week

03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury

08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix

11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation

20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix the Deficit

29:12 - Closing Question: Warsh vs. Bessent

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Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels.

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium

03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates

13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits

17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection

28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education

33:34 - How the Definition of Work is Evolving

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Is the juice worth the squeeze? Earnings keep rising, valuations are questionable, and investors are uncertain. What should you make of earnings these days?

Chapters

00:00 - Hot Open & Intro

00:51 - Why Earnings Confuse

03:54 - The Anthropic Effect

07:10 - Include Other Income

09:36 - OpenAI Next Wave

12:32 - Valuations vs Earnings

18:05 - Data Sources Diverge

22:42 - Quant Models in Trouble

26:05 - Vendor Financing History

29:15 - CapEx & Bubble Risks

37:10 - Lightning Round Fed or Earnings

38:53 - Wrap Up & Subscribe

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Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.

Chapters

00:00 - The Fed Put & Market Expectation

00:51 - Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview

01:22 - FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda

02:30 - Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact

06:18 - The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance

11:15 - Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed

13:36 - The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put

15:38 - The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics

18:18 - Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present)

25:34 - Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance

30:30 - Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach

33:41 - Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up

Charts Used:

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https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png

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Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect?

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent

00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview

02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle

06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market

09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio

11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model

17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending

26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities

28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable

32:42 - Closing Remarks

Charts Used:

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/AIvsNonAICorrelation072426.png

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/CAPERatiovsReturns072426.png

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/456Markets072426.png

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Hello everyone welcome to the Rational Dissent Podcast where we discuss everything from markets and the economy to the Fed and AI, and we stress test conventional wisdom and consensus views.