Real Property St Pete

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In this episode

1. Pricing right from day one still matters most. 80% of agents in HomeLight's survey call accurate pricing the single most important factor in selling a home.
2. AI is now the top reason sellers misjudge value. 64% of agents say owners get their value wrong because of what they hear from AI and online sources.
3. AI tools are built to agree with you. Ask a chatbot if your house is worth $600,000 and it will find reasons to say yes. It hasn't walked your kitchen or seen the roof two doors down.
4. St. Pete is especially hard for algorithms. A 1920 home can sit next to a 2024 build, and a 1,500 sq ft house next to a 3,600 sq ft one. Hyperlocal differences throw automated estimates off.
5. Real story: "Zillow's on crack." A client's Zestimate said $601K. Nothing in his community had sold that high in two years.
6. Sellers still expect 2021. Half of agents most often reset value expectations; a quarter reset how fast a home will sell.
7. Showings with no offers is a price message. 47% of agents say it means the price is too high; condition was a distant second at 19%.
8. Know the local benchmark. In Pinellas, single-family homes went under contract in a median 36 days and sold at 95.3% of original list price. Past 36 days, you're on the wrong side of the middle.
9. Concessions and rate buydowns are back. Sellers gave concessions in 44% of August sales. Buying a buyer's rate down can lower their payment more than a $25,000 price cut.
10. Have a plan before you list. Use AI as a starting point, price from what actually closed in the last 90 days (plus current pendings), and decide your adjustment up front — not in a panic at day 60.

CHAPTER MARKERS

00:00 Why AI pricing is a new challenge for sellers
02:00 Welcome to Real Property St. Pete
02:38 The HomeLight survey: 80% and 64%
03:05 When online valuations don't match reality
03:57 The 601 Zestimate and St. Pete's mixed housing
05:20 AI tools are built to agree with you
05:56 Sellers still expect a 2021 market
06:37 Showings but no offers: what it means
08:13 How fast should you adjust your price?
09:23 Pinellas: 36 days to contract, 95.3% of list
10:55 Concessions and 7.5% interest rates
11:33 A $25,000 price cut vs. a rate buydown
12:37 Practical advice: closed sales are facts
13:26 Have a plan before you list
14:16 Lock-in sellers and low inventory
15:33 "If it doesn't close, it doesn't matter"
16:13 AI isn't the enemy — call an agent
17:43 Thanks for listening

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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Show notes: 10 key points

1. A split-personality market. Some days are dead quiet, others bring multiple offers over list price. Price, condition and flood zone decide which kind of day a listing gets.
2. Westchase bidding war. One house drew 26 showings and at least five offers. David's buyers escalated to $975K on a $900K list price and still lost, on a military relocation where the offers were nearly identical.
3. Coffee Pot sells in a day. Julie's listing just outside the flood zone, under 1,400 sq ft, sold $12K over asking on its first day with no bidding war. Landscaping, light fixtures and staging made the difference.
4. The flip side. A neglected house with a toilet that wouldn't flush, sediment in the pool and worn floors. Small issues add up until the buyer says "too much work."
5. July 2026 Pinellas activity (single-family and townhomes). Closed sales up 12% (1,500 vs. 1,350). Cash purchases down 5%. New listings down 6%. Total inventory down 15% (6,751 vs. 7,960).
6. Prices are up. Median sale price $469K (up 8%). Average $618K (up 7%). Dollar volume $582M (up 11%).
7. Sellers are getting closer to asking. The median sale is at 96% of original list price, up from 93% last July.
8. Supply is tighter. 3.5 months of single-family inventory vs. 4.8 a year ago, with active listings down about 900 homes.
9. Condos are recovering. Condo and townhome absorption is 15–17%, up from 10–14% last year. That's driven by downtown new-construction closings and buyers getting comfortable with structural inspection reports. HOA fees and assessments are still the hurdle.
10. The inflection point, and a caution. Cash sales turned negative in November 2025, and median price turned positive in January 2026. But July's 888 pending sales were the lowest since December, so August may show a slowdown.

Chapters

• 0:00 Cold open: good days, bad days, busy days
• 3:28 Welcome to the Real Property St. Pete podcast
• 4:25 Westchase bidding war: 26 showings, 5+ offers
• 7:30 Coffee Pot listing sells in one day
• 9:28 Why neglected homes sit
• 12:25 July 2026 Pinellas County statistics
• 14:07 Absorption rates and the condo market
• 16:01 Prices and percent of list price
• 17:46 The inflection point: when the market turned
• 21:52 What July's pending sales say about August
• 22:54 Wrap-up: location is everything

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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Here are the top 10 takeaways from this episode of the Real Property St. Pete Podcast:

• Podcast Resumption After Market Surge: Hosts David Vann and Julie Jones returned from a three-month podcast hiatus after an exceptionally busy period, selling 22 properties combined (David with 12 and Julie with 10) during that time.
• Significant Spike in Sales Volume: Following a slow start to the year (590 sales in January; 700 in February), the St. Petersburg market surged from March through June 2026, averaging nearly 1,000 completed transactions per month.
• Decline in Cash Transactions: Cash sales decreased noticeably—down between 13% and 22% over the recent four-month period—continuing a downward trajectory that began in late 2025 as the post-storm investor buyouts cooled.
• Rising Home Prices: Both average and median sales prices saw strong upward momentum. Average sales prices consistently ranged between $650,000 and $700,000, while median sales prices climbed steadily to near $480,000.
• Sellers Receiving Higher Percentages of List Price: Sellers received 95% to 96% of their original list price from March through June, compared to the 93% to 94% average observed over the preceding year and a half.
• Faster Market Pace (Days to Contract): Median time on market dropped sharply from 54 days in February down to 29 days in June, reflecting increased buyer demand and well-priced inventory.
• Shrinking Inventory Levels: Active listings dropped under 3,000 by June (2,987 properties), reflecting over 1,000 fewer active homes for sale in Pinellas County compared to the same period in 2025.
• Shift in Flood Zone Perception: Buyers are re-entering flood-zone neighborhoods, driven by limited non-flood-zone inventory, elevated home construction, and the lack of major storm activity throughout 2025.
• Resilience of Elevated & Modern Construction: Properties in elevated communities (e.g., Placido Bayou, Caya Costa, Harbor Isle) and newer 14-foot elevated builds (e.g., Shore Acres) did not suffer flood damage in the 2024 hurricanes, boosting buyer confidence in modern flood-zone builds.
• Transitioning Toward a Stronger Seller's Market: The market's absorption rate fell to a 3.5-month supply of inventory in June—a nearly 30% drop from the 5-month supply recorded a year prior.

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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In this episode, Julie and David dive deep into the February 2026 real estate statistics for Pinellas County. They discuss the signs of market recovery following a period of "flood-influenced" stagnation. The conversation covers the differences between the single-family and condo markets, the impact of lower interest rates on buyer behavior, and the return of a more "normal" spring market trend. David also breaks down the "Million Dollar Spotlight," highlighting the specific inventory and absorption rates for luxury homes.

10 Key Takeaways for Listeners

• Signs of Market Recovery: The hosts note a clear shift away from the "state of shock" seen in previous months following regional flooding, with buyers returning to flood zones. (02:22)
• The "Eggnog Effect" Ends: David explains that the extreme stagnation of December and January (people "drinking eggnog and doing nothing") has given way to increased activity in February. (11:32)
• Cash Sales are Down: Cash transactions for single-family homes decreased by 25% year-over-year, indicating that more buyers are leveraging financing as interest rates improve. (07:12)
• Interest Rate Impact: The hosts highlight that rates around 6.3% are encouraging buyers to return to the market and take advantage of traditional financing. (13:14)
• Pending Inventory Surge: A nearly 9% increase in pending inventory suggests a strong forward-looking indicator for closed sales in the coming months. (05:25)
• Absorption Rate Stability: Single-family absorption rates are sitting at 22%, while the condo market remains tougher at 14%, showing a significant amount of standing inventory. (06:21)
• "Tire Kicker" Phase: Buyers are becoming more discerning, often visiting a property two or three times before making an offer, contributing to a longer "median time to contract" of 54 days. (17:42)
• Inventory is Tightening: Total active inventory is down about 7.5% compared to the previous year, which is starting to create more competition for well-priced, high-quality listings. (10:14)
• The Million Dollar Spotlight: Luxury homes (especially those between $2M-$3M) are seeing nearly a year's worth of inventory, requiring significant patience and strategy from sellers. (23:14)
• The "Window of Opportunity": Julie advises that the next two months (March and April) are the prime time to sell before the typical summer slowdown begins. (26:42)

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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Eggnog, Dog Hair, and The Million Dollar Spotlight

• The "Eggnog Effect" Recovery: Why the slow December holiday period led to a dip in closed sales, and how January's numbers show the market is waking back up.
• A New "Pinnacle" for Prices: The average sale price in Pinellas surged to $639,779, marking a 9.3% year-over-year increase and the highest point in the last 12 months.
• The Retreat of Cash Buyers: Paid-in-cash transactions for single-family homes dropped by nearly 30%, a shift that is opening new doors for financed buyers to compete.
• Pending Sales Surge: Proving that buyers are back in action, new pending sales jumped from 622 in December to 904 in January.
• The 93% "Lagging Indicator": Understanding why the median percent of original list price has remained stagnant at 93% for seven consecutive months.
• Inventory Tightening: Single-family home inventory has shifted down to 3.7 months of supply, compared to the 5-month highs seen last summer.
• The Million Dollar Spotlight: Introducing the highly anticipated new data breakdown for the $1M+ price point, providing granular insights into luxury tiers.
• High-End Heat: A look at the 70 homes that sold for over $1M in January, including a rare $10M+ closing that spent 257 days on the market.
• External Market Pressures: How geopolitical shifts and interest rate jumps over a single weekend have impacted local buyer confidence.
• Strategic Patience: Why Julie is advising buyers to stay patient as new listings (up 500 over December) begin to restock the Pinellas inventory.

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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🔟 David and Julie reflect on the close out of the year 2025 and projections on the coming year 2026. 

1. 2025 was a recovery year for St. Petersburg real estate, following hurricane impacts and market disruption, with rebuilding and new construction accelerating across affected neighborhoods.
2. Florida enters 2026 from a position of strength, with economic growth expected to outperform the nation, stabilizing home prices, and improving sales activity.
3. December 2025 sales increased 8% year-over-year, signaling renewed buyer engagement after a slow holiday season.
4. Absorption rate jumped to 31%, the strongest reading since before the storms, pushing inventory down to 3.6 months—a major improvement from mid-2025 levels.
5. Active inventory fell to 3,148 homes, the lowest level since December 2024, indicating tightening supply.
6. New listings dropped sharply in December, especially single-family homes (down 26% YoY), as many sellers paused during the holidays.
7. Cash sales declined significantly, down 16.5% YoY, with more buyers returning to the market using mortgage financing—an important potential inflection point.
8. 2025 prices finished lower overall, with median prices down 6.3% and average prices down 7.3%, reflecting normalization after years of rapid appreciation.
9. Median days to contract rose to 49 days, giving buyers more time for due diligence, insurance review, and financial decision-making.
10. The $1M+ market rebounded strongly in December, with 96 luxury sales, showing renewed strength in higher-end and waterfront properties heading into 2026.

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November 2025 Market Statistics | January 2026 Discussion

Episode Summary 

• Absorption rate hit 22% in November 2025, the lowest level in over four years — signaling the slowest likelihood of selling since early 2022.
• Condo absorption dropped to just 10%, also a four-year low, reflecting oversupply and buyer hesitation in that segment.
• Closed sales totaled 727, one of the weakest months on record outside post-storm disruption periods.
• Median sale price came in at $440,000, down 7.4% year-over-year, but highly dependent on flood-zone exposure and property condition.
• Flood-zone properties show dramatic value dispersion:
  • Non-flooded homes: down ~15–20%
  • Flooded but unrepaired: down 30–40%
  • Flooded and repaired: often ~25–30% below pre-storm values
• Median days to contract held steady at 47 days, with median days to close at 81 — showing pricing, not demand timing, remains the core issue.
• New pending sales (824) and new listings (867) were the lowest monthly totals of 2025, reflecting holiday slowdown and seller hesitation.
• Months of inventory dipped to 3.9, the first time below four months since November 2024 — driven more by reduced listings than rising demand.
• Despite lagging November stats, January 2026 activity is strong, with both hosts reporting new listings, buyer movement, and seller inquiries.
• Consensus outlook: the market feels positioned for a healthier, more active 2026, especially as storm-distorted data fades.

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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October 2025 Pinellas County Market — Key Takeaways

Top 10 Episode Highlights

1. Single-family absorption rate: 26%
   ≈ 4.2 months of inventory — a balanced but selective market.
2. Condos & townhomes absorption: ~12%
   Roughly 8 months of inventory—significantly slower.
3. Closed sales: 883 | New pendings: 894
   A rare “floating” moment—nearly equal sold vs. under contract.
4. Median sale price jumped to $450,000
   Up $25K month-over-month—one of the stronger medians this year.
5. Average sale price steady at ~$573,000
   Confirms stabilization well below 2024’s $640K+ peaks.
6. Sellers net ~93% of original list price (SFR)
   About a 7% discount remains typical.
7. Time to contract (SFR): 46 days
   On the higher end compared to earlier 2025.
8. Active SFR inventory: 3,654 homes
   Down from spring highs; competition easing slightly.
9. $400K–$600K remains the strongest segment
   ~4 months of inventory—most liquid price band.
10. $1M+ homes face ~10 months of inventory
    Condition, realism, and deal-making matter more than ever.

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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David and Julie discuss FEMA, Florida Property Tax Reform, and Mike Twitty, Pinellas County Property Appraiser 

Episode Highlights – What You Need to Know

1. What “Substantial Damage” Really Means
   If repair costs reach 50% or more of a home’s structure value, FEMA requires the entire property to be brought into current floodplain compliance.
2. Why Floodplain Rules Directly Affect Insurance Costs
   Strong enforcement of FEMA regulations helps communities earn major flood-insurance discounts through the National Flood Insurance Program.
3. Pinellas County vs. St. Petersburg Flood Discounts
   County residents receive up to a 40% FEMA discount, while City of St. Petersburg residents receive about 25–28%, due to differences in compliance and mitigation efforts.
4. Density Has Consequences in Flood Zones
   Choosing higher density over stricter floodplain compliance increases long-term flood risk and raises insurance costs for everyone.
5. Why Pinellas County Is Especially Vulnerable
   Pinellas is both Florida’s most densely populated county and effectively a barrier island, creating elevated flood exposure.
6. How Substantial Damage Impacts Homeowners
   Once triggered, homeowners may be required to elevate, rebuild, or demolish, not just repair damaged portions of a home.
7. Why FEMA Discounts Matter More Than Ever
   With insurance premiums rising statewide, flood-rating discounts can mean thousands of dollars in annual savings.
8. Florida’s Proposal to Eliminate Property Taxes on Homesteads
   Governor DeSantis has proposed eliminating property taxes on primary residences, potentially reshaping affordability statewide.
9. What’s on the Table for the 2026 Ballot
   Multiple legislative proposals include expanded homestead exemptions, insurance-related tax relief, Save Our Homes portability changes, and assessment-cap reductions.
10. Why Voter Education Matters Now
    These constitutional changes require 60% voter approval, making informed homeowners critical to the outcome in November 2026.

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you! 

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September 2025 Market Report (Compared to August 2025)

1. Year-over-year comparisons are useless right now
   Last September and October were distorted by hurricane prep, evacuations, and a complete halt in buyer activity. For the next two months, the only meaningful metric is month-to-month.
2. Median & average sale prices both dropped
   • Median fell $10K, hitting a new low of $425K (after bottoming at $435K four times in the last year).
   • Average dropped $23K to $565K.
3. Inventory is shrinking sharply
   Active listings moved from 4,200 in May → 3,647 now. The drop across all price points above $300K is the primary driver of today’s lower month-supply.
4. Months’ supply falls back to 4.2
   This is the lowest level since January/February. The decline is driven by fewer new listings, not a surge in sales.
5. Sellers are stepping back
   New listings dropped to 1,019, the lowest since December 2024. Many homeowners who don’t have to sell are choosing to sit tight.
6. Buyers want to “murder” sellers—but sellers aren’t having it
   Buyers want deep discounts. Some sellers with big equity are willing to take them; others are holding firm and waiting out the turbulence.
7. Closings down in nearly every price segment
   Particularly above $300K, September saw noticeably fewer closings than August. The only segment showing growth was $200–$250K, which is largely distressed/flood-impacted inventory returning.
8. Speed is improving despite soft pricing
   • Median time to contract: 48 → 42 days
   • Median time to sale: 84 → 77 days
   Even in a choppy market, motivated buyers are acting faster.
9. Flood insurance realities dominate buyer/seller psychology
   From NFIP shutdown concerns to private policies quoted at $20K, flood exposure is directly influencing negotiations, valuations, and willingness to transact.
10. Pinellas flood risk explained like never before
    • Over $3.2B in NFIP claims for 2024
    • 22,584 claims filed
    • Pinellas is the most densely populated county in Florida and qualifies as a barrier island, which is why flood premiums are among the highest in the state.
    This sets up a future episode on policy, insurance, and the legislative proposals affecting homesteaded and non-homesteaded owners.

Want to work with us? David Vann can be found  here, and Julie Jones can be found here! Reach out! We're nice, and we'd love to hear from you!