As AI's capability grows, what once-human tasks will it be able to do, by when? What will those displaced humans do? We look to the automation revolutions of the past to see what the historical pattern has been, and explore in what ways AI is different that could change the pattern.

The pattern will change. The implications are immense.

Sources

Leontief's horse. Wassily Leontief, 1983, National Academy of Engineering symposium The Long-Term Impact of Technology on Employment and Unemployment. Quote and horse-population figures via Brynjolfsson & McAfee, "Will Humans Go the Way of Horses?", Foreign Affairs (2015): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/will-humans-go-way-horses

Software developer pay. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Software Developers (SOC 15-1252): https://www.bls.gov/oes/2021/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151252.htm · Occupational Outlook Handbook: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm · Total-comp figure: Levels.fyi (2026).

AI timelines (experts). Katja Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI" (2023 survey, 2,778 researchers): https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843 · https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf

AI timelines (forecasters). Metaculus (community forecasts; live figures): "first general AI system" https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/ · "weakly general AI" https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/

Goldman Sachs. "An AI Job Apocalypse?", Goldman Sachs Research, June 25, 2026: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind/an-ai-job-apocalypse (Goldman's own view is that the disruption is temporary.)

Occupational exposure. Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock, "GPTs are GPTs," Science 384 (2024): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998 · working paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130

Entry-level cracks. Stanford Digital Economy Lab, "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI" (Nov 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf

Current labor data. Maxim Massenkoff & Peter McCrory, "Labor Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence," Anthropic (Mar 5, 2026): https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts (Note: Anthropic funds both the models and this research.)

Depression unemployment anchor. U.S. unemployment peaked near 25% in 1933 (verify exact figure before citing on air).

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How much of your life -- and everyone's -- is a compulsive, futile effort to deny your own death? What happens when you see what's really happening?

Sources

Leontief’s horse. Wassily Leontief, 1983, National Academy of Engineering symposium

Humans and Horses. Brynjolfsson & McAfee, “Will Humans Go the Way of Horses?”, Foreign Affairs (2015): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/will-humans-go-way-horses

Software developer pay. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Software Developers (SOC 15-1252): https://www.bls.gov/oes/2021/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151252.htm ·

Occupational Outlook Handbook: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm

Total-comp figure: Levels.fyi (2026).

AI timelines (experts). Katja Grace et al., “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” (2023 survey, 2,778 researchers): https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843 · https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf

Goldman Sachs. “An AI Job Apocalypse?”, Goldman Sachs Research, June 25, 2026: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind/an-ai-job-apocalypse (Goldman’s own view is that the disruption is temporary.)

Occupational exposure. Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock, “GPTs are GPTs,” *Science* 384 (2024): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998 · working paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130

Stanford Digital Economy Lab, “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI” (Nov 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf

Current labor data. Maxim Massenkoff & Peter McCrory, “Labor Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence,” Anthropic (Mar 5, 2026): https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Look over the growth if AI's capability in the past 3 years, and the past year. What is it going to look like in 3 years, and what are the implications for all of us?

Some visions of the future of AI by some researchers on the cutting edge:

https://ai-2027.com/

Dario Amodei, Machines of Loving Grace (October 2024)

Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (June 2024)

Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (2025)

Nick Bostrom, Deep Utopia (2024)

The skeptics:

Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, AI as Normal Technology (2025)

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There’s something really interesting happening in Ukraine. The few and far between Russian victories seem to be making them weaker. Yes, you read that right. Russian victories are draining the life out of their soldiers, making it harder to win the battles that come next. On the other hand, Ukrainian victories have been swift, dramatic, and devastating - with each win seemingly making them stronger.

The big question is, why is it that Ukrainians gain momentum with every win, but Russia can’t seem to build on their victories? Well, it all comes down to asymmetric momentum. And there are 6 major reasons for this. 

Tune in to hear what these 6 reasons are and how the recent Ukrainian victories mark a critical juncture that will determine the course of the war.

00:00 Introduction

02:40 What is asymmetric momentum?

04:49 Ukrain’s positional warfare

06:55 Understanding Ukraine’s offensive and defensive strategies

08:16 Russia’s unintelligent retreat

10:37 How Russian political interests are affecting their progress

14:54 The poor discipline and lack of drive in Russian forces

16:42 Is the Russian army competent enough to win this war?

18:00 How Russia’s desire for a quick war is slowing their progress

20:40 Ukrainian motivation and their willingness to die for the right reasons

24:58 The impatient side of Russians uncovered

28:30 Many Russian conscripts will die due to lack of training and morale

29:36 The psychology behind Putin’s destructive Soviet-style leadership

32:04 Ukraine is playing the patient game

34:07 Summary

35:36 Parting thoughts 

Ukrainian victories on the ground have been swift, dramatic, and devastating. And each win seems to make them stronger.

Russian victories (back when they happened), seemed to be slow and grinding, and wear the Rusisans down, making them weaker.

Why is it that Russians lose momentum with each victory, but Ukrainians gain it? Why such asymmetric momentum?

I see 6 (or 7, depending) major reasons:

• 1. Russian Politics (“quick war”): impatience -> meat grinder, not admitting defeat, vs Ukraine’s patience
• 2. Russian Politics (show territorial progress): territory vs. Ukraine’s “defeat the enemy” -> meat grinder
• 3. Russian Politics (don’t let Ukraine show territorial progress): no retreat allowed -> break and rout
• 4. Morale, espirit de corps, discipline, "why are we here" vs fighting for home and life -> Ukrainians will die for the right reasons, Russians are drunk, will break and refuse to fight
• 5. Russian atrocities: hardens Ukrainian morale and turns them into 24/7 machines of war who get smarter and become veterans
• 6. Soviet vs. NATO style: NATO style allows for initiative and invests in training; Soviet style mass forces of limited training and centralized command means they are very predictable
• 7. Putin: total centralized control by someone who has clearly lost touch with reality

Reconsidermedia.com

Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia

Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mitchell Orenstein is a professor of Central and East European Politics in the Slavic department at the University of Pennsylvania and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard. His research focuses on the political economy and international affairs of Central and Eastern Europe.

This episode is the latest installment to the four-part series on Reconsidering Russia, where we try to dig into Russia's historical and geopolitical context to help you better understand some of their moves today and what's going on in their country today.

Tune in to hear Eric, Xander, and Professor Orenstein dive deep into Russia's real objective in Ukraine, Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership, why Russia really needs to diversify its economy, and so much more.

00:00 Introduction

01:35 Why Geopolitics is not about reforms or democracy

03:49 What does Russia really want?

05:49 Understanding Russia's national interests and foreign policy preferences

12:59 Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership

16:33 Comparing Russian perceptions to the American interpretation

20:10 What does the 'Near Abroad' mean?

20:54 The democratization of Russia's 'Near Abroad'

24:12 Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union

28:10 The strategic and fundamental importance of Ukraine

32:14 Russian interests in Finland

34:57 The Nature of Germany's relationship with Russia

39:01 Caucasus as a region of strategic importance to Russia

44:15 Chinese and Russian interests in South-East Asia

47:15 China-Russia relations: Eternal rivals or emerging alliance 

50:41 Russia's views on China's growth in power and influence 

52:38 Russia-Japan dispute over Kuril Islands 

54:50 Thoughts on Russia's domestic politics and foreign policy

58:35 Why Russia really needs to diversify its economy

01:01:58 What to expect from Russia in the next 5 to 10 years

01:05:18 Russia - a gas station with nuclear weapons

01:08:03 Parting thoughts 

Links and Resources:

Reconsidermedia.com

Mitchel's website - https://www.mitchellorenstein.com/

Mitchel's profile on the Foreign Affairs Magazine - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/mitchell-orenstein

Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia

Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Time in Kyiv: 9am, Tues, Sep 13th.

Kharkiv Oblast is free.

Zelenksy announced about 6 weeks ago that a major counter-offensive in the South would take place. After a month of attacking bridges, rail depots, ammunition depots, C&C, bases, etc etc etc, the offensive started in earnest. 2 weeks in, they haven’t gotten a ton of territory back.

But, as all of us paying attention know, the Southern offensive may have been the greatest diversion in warfare since WWII itself. 

Over the last week, Ukraine launched the most dazzling counter-blitzkrieg I can think of. We’re going to go over all of that in its glorious detail here. 

There’s so, so, so much we don’t know. Lots of opsec, lots intentionally hidden from the public. What I can say with certainty is there will be many a movie made about this in Hollywood -- this is one of the great moments in military and geopolitical history, period. It is very, very likely the tide of the war has turned, and for good. David is now on top of Goliath, pummeling him.

Please excuse the sound. I wasn’t planning to record while on break here but I just couldn't help it. I don’t have my mic!

Russian History on Facebook 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Schauss is the host of Russian Rulers History and Battle Ground History. Known for being heavily well-versed with the history of Russia, Mark Schauss joins us in today’s episode to talk about the Russian history in its most authentic form. Mark shares everything from Russia’s first invasion to how all these historic events reflect on how Russia moves socio-politically in today’s world.  

• What made mark start his podcast and how it’s currently going. 
• The history of the first invasion and the second invasion of Russia. 
• The geography of Russia and why it’s easy to invade Russia but why it’s difficult to stay. 
• How Russia was able to balance European powers and how they were able to to set up alliances to protect their borders. 
• Mark shares all about the Napolean and Crimean war.
• The casualties of the Russian Civil War. 
• The transition period between 1917 to the World War 2. 
• How Russia came back from the 2nd World War as a superpower country. 

Russian History on Facebook 

Russian Rulers Podcast

Russian Rulers History

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hot Updates

• Severodonetsk fell slowly as expected, but then Lysychansk fell quickly because Russian troops surrounded it, and Ukrainian troops had to retreat rather than be destroyed. It’s possible the Ukrainians were out-gamed by Russian mid-level commanders.
• So far, Russians have not been able to break out of Donetsk city -- that part of the original Feb 24 defense line is holding
• Russia appears to have deployed nearly 100% of its conventional combat capabilities to Ukraine, and is still getting clobbered.
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/ 
• Russia is trying to recruit “volunteer” regiments to deploy in Ukraine to relieve Russian troops -- they will be low quality, and so their use would be to hang tight in certain areas and try to pin down Ukrainian units. Not useless, but not super useful.

• Once again we have returned to slow movement along the front lines now that Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell. 
• Ukrainians fell back to the 2nd of 3 highly defensible urban areas in Donetsk oblast, with Siversk and Bakhmut the big towns there. Bakhmut is under a lot of pressure; Russians are trying to surround it, but so far to no avail.
• Russians attempting to attack directly on those two towns, but also continuing to try the end-around from Izium toward Sloviansk to try to create a pocket that can be cut off. So far it’s really not working. It looks like Russia might be deprioritizing that angle as of July 31.
• WHAT IS HIMARS? WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of ways we can split this. Much has been discussed about decoupling of wages from productivity. 

Also note we are absolutely not going to get into 2022. But it’s clear the price increases since the pandemic (due to supply shortages, super aggressive monetary policy, gasoline ,and other drivers of inflation) are really eating into real wages.

See the full show notes at ReconsiderMedia.com

Join the ReConsider Patreon

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

OR, a tale of ups and downs

Lots of things seem to be getting worse, at least if you read the internet ever

This is not an episode to say, “nothing is getting worse,” but that what you hear about is probably not very correlated with what’s going on.

I’m leaving abortion out of this because honestly I can’t even deal with this shit right now. 

Major problem with talking about trends: how long are we talking here? A lot of stuff goes up and down. If you just look at this year and extrapolate, then the stock market trends down, which it obviously doesn’t. So we’ll do our best, I’m focusing on the current adult generation (Millennials/GenX), but keep all that in mind.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.