ReConsider

We explore the state of education just before the rise of AI, compare it to today, and extrapolate into the future.

Sources

• Tyler Jagt, "My Students Can't Read," Chronicle of Higher Education, 2026. 
• NAEP Long-Term Trend Assessment
• Pew Research, "Reading for fun has become less common," 2021.
• James S. Coleman et al., Equality of Educational Opportunity ("The Coleman Report"), US Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, 1966
• Kathryn Borman & Monique Dowling, Teachers College Record, 2010.
• Dan Goldhaber, "The Mystery of Good Teaching," Education Next, 2002 Steven Rivkin, Eric Hanushek & John Kain, teacher-effects study, Econometrica, 2005. 
• Xitao Fan & Michael Chen, parental-involvement meta-analysis, Educational Psychology Review, 2001 
• World Bank, "Vietnam's Human Capital: Education Success and Future Challenges," 2020 (PISA science outperformance on low per-pupil spend). 
• OECD, "Does Money Buy Strong Performance in PISA?", PISA in Focus No. 13, 2012 (no score/spending relationship above ~$35k cumulative per-student spend). 
• NCES, Digest of Education Statistics 2023, Table 236.55 (US per-pupil spending, $6,873 → $17,495 real dollars, 1970-71 to 2020-21)
• Boston Globe, 2001 coverage of Harvard grading ("laughing stock of the Ivy League"; 91% of seniors graduating with honors). 
• Harvard Crimson, Oct. 5, 2023 (~79-80% of 2020-21 grades in the A range)
• Anemona Hartocollis, "Harvard Students Skip Class and Still Get High Grades, Faculty Say," New York Times, Oct. 6, 2025. 
• Gallup, confidence-in-higher-education tracking, July 2023 and July 2024 releases (57% in 2015 → 36% in 2023/24; Republican confidence ~56%→~19-20%, Democratic decline much smaller)
• Pew Research, Aug. 2019 (share saying colleges have a negative effect on the country, 26%→38%, 2012-2019, driven almost entirely by Republicans/leaners)
• Challenge Success (Stanford, Denise Pope), Fall 2018 survey
• Mark Galloway, cheating in advantaged-community schools, Ethics & Behavior, 2012
• Stacy Dale & Alan Krueger, "Estimating the Payoff to Attending a More Selective College," NBER WP 7322, Aug. 1999; Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002. Follow-up: NBER WP 17159, Jun. 2011; Journal of Human Resources, 2014.
• ProPublica & The Chronicle of Higher Education, "The Newest College Admissions Ploy: Paying to Make Your Teen a 'Peer-Reviewed' Author," May 2023.
• Nataliya Kosmyna et al., "Your Brain on ChatGPT," MIT Media Lab, arXiv:2506.08872, 2025. 
• Hao-Ping (Hank) Lee et al., "The Impact of Generative AI on Critical Thinking," CHI 2025, peer-reviewed, n=319. 
• Turnitin AI-detection data, 2023-2026 (>80% AI-written flags: ~3% early 2023 → ~15% early 2026).
• Inside Higher Ed / Generation Lab Student Voice survey, Aug. 2025
• Rose Horowitch, "The Elite College Students Who Can't Read Books," The Atlantic, Oct. 2024. 
• "Hilarius Bookbinder," "The Average College Student Is Illiterate," Persuasion, Mar. 2025. 
• Tyler Jagt, "My Students Can't Read," Chronicle of Higher Education, 2026. 
• NAEP 2024 12th-grade reading assessment, released Sept. 2025 (lowest since assessment began). 
• Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar & Ruyu Chen (Stanford Digital Economy Lab), "Canaries in the Coal Mine?," Nov. 2025, ADP payroll data
• Indeed Hiring Lab, entry-level software postings
• 2U, coding-bootcamp partnership shutdown, Dec. 2024.
• Southern New Hampshire University, bootcamp closure, 2023, citing AI adoption.
• World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report, 2023 & 2025 
• McKinsey Global Institute, "Skill Shift," 2018 
• Stefan Bauschard, "Education is a Wicked Problem in AI" 
• Brian Miller, "Farewell, Peak Literacy, We Hardly Knew You," Front Porch Republic, Nov. 2023. 
• James Marriott, The New Dark Ages: The Death of Reading and the Dawn of the Post-Literate Society

ERRATA:

• Obviously Daniel Kahneman wrote _Thinking Fast and Slow_, not Malcom Gladwell
• I said that in 2024 the GOP did not have a platform; it was in fact 2020

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It's amazing how useful illusion is for surviving in a cave, and staggering how destructive it is to our lives. The Buddha saw this 2500 years ago. Modern science sees it more clearly than ever.

In this episode I did not even get into the Fundamental Attribution Error or the vast suite of cognitive biases and logical fallacies to which we are prone.

But we are not doomed to live like this!

SOURCES

Yes, I read these!

Brickman, Coates & Janoff-Bulman (1978), J. Personality & Social Psychology 36.

Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness (2006) 

Gazzaniga & LeDoux, The Integrated Mind (1978).

Kurzban, Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite: Evolution and the Modular Mind (2010)

Wright, Why Buddhism Is True (2017) 

Fadiman & Gruber, Your Symphony of Selves (2020) 

Hunt, Marx, Lipson & Young (2018), J. Social & Clinical Psychology 37.

Allcott, Braghieri, Eichmeyer & Gentzkow (2020), American Economic Review 110(3).

Scitovsky, The Joyless Economy (1976).

Wrigley & Schofield, The Population History of England 1541–1871 (1981)

Killingsworth & Gilbert (2010), Science 330.

Kasser, The High Price of Materialism (2002).

Einstein–Born correspondence (1926); Bohr–Einstein debate.

McGilchrist, The Master and His Emissary (2009); McGilchrist Substack, Apr 2026 (Kastner 2024 paper).

Mercier & Sperber, "Why Do Humans Reason?" (2011), Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

Haidt, The Righteous Mind (2012) 

Trivers, The Folly of Fools (2011)

Kahan, "Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection" (2012)

Dunbar, Grooming, Gossip, and the Evolution of Language (1996); Dunbar, Duncan & Marriott (1997).

Hardin & Higgins (1996); Higgins & Rholes (1978); Echterhoff, Higgins & Levine (2009), Perspectives on Psychological Science

Kopietz et al. (2010), Social Cognition

Festinger, When Prophecy Fails (1956).

Plato, Apology 38a5–6; Republic Book VII (514a–520a)

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As AI's capability grows, what once-human tasks will it be able to do, by when? What will those displaced humans do? We look to the automation revolutions of the past to see what the historical pattern has been, and explore in what ways AI is different that could change the pattern.

The pattern will change. The implications are immense.

Sources

Brynjolfsson & McAfee, "Will Humans Go the Way of Horses?", Foreign Affairs (2015): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/will-humans-go-way-horses

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Software Developers (SOC 15-1252): https://www.bls.gov/oes/2021/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151252.htm · Occupational Outlook Handbook: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm ·

Katja Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI": https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843 · https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf

Metaculus: "first general AI system" https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/ ·

"An AI Job Apocalypse?", Goldman Sachs Research, June 25, 2026: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind/an-ai-job-apocalypse (

Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock, "GPTs are GPTs," Science 384 (2024): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998 ·

Stanford Digital Economy Lab, "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI" (Nov 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf

Maxim Massenkoff & Peter McCrory, "Labor Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence," Anthropic (Mar 5, 2026): https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts

ERRATA:

• Tom Brady did NOT win a ring after retirement; he had all 7 before he retired
• I said Camus said there is "one true psychological problem;" he said "one true *philosophical* problem"

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How much of your life -- and everyone's -- is a compulsive, futile effort to deny your own death? What happens when you see what's really happening?

Sources

Leontief’s horse. Wassily Leontief, 1983, National Academy of Engineering symposium

Humans and Horses. Brynjolfsson & McAfee, “Will Humans Go the Way of Horses?”, Foreign Affairs (2015): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/will-humans-go-way-horses

Software developer pay. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Software Developers (SOC 15-1252): https://www.bls.gov/oes/2021/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes151252.htm · https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151252.htm ·

Occupational Outlook Handbook: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm

Total-comp figure: Levels.fyi (2026).

AI timelines (experts). Katja Grace et al., “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” (2023 survey, 2,778 researchers): https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843 · https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf

Goldman Sachs. “An AI Job Apocalypse?”, Goldman Sachs Research, June 25, 2026: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind/an-ai-job-apocalypse (Goldman’s own view is that the disruption is temporary.)

Occupational exposure. Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock, “GPTs are GPTs,” *Science* 384 (2024): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998 · working paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130

Stanford Digital Economy Lab, “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI” (Nov 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf

Current labor data. Maxim Massenkoff & Peter McCrory, “Labor Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence,” Anthropic (Mar 5, 2026): https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts 

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Look over the growth if AI's capability in the past 3 years, and the past year. What is it going to look like in 3 years, and what are the implications for all of us?

Some visions of the future of AI by some researchers on the cutting edge:

https://ai-2027.com/

Dario Amodei, Machines of Loving Grace (October 2024)

Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (June 2024)

Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (2025)

Nick Bostrom, Deep Utopia (2024)

The skeptics:

Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, AI as Normal Technology (2025)

ERRATA:

• Veo3 came out in May 2025 (I saw it in late 2025)
• Galileo had house arrest, not prison

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There’s something really interesting happening in Ukraine. The few and far between Russian victories seem to be making them weaker. Yes, you read that right. Russian victories are draining the life out of their soldiers, making it harder to win the battles that come next. On the other hand, Ukrainian victories have been swift, dramatic, and devastating - with each win seemingly making them stronger.

The big question is, why is it that Ukrainians gain momentum with every win, but Russia can’t seem to build on their victories? Well, it all comes down to asymmetric momentum. And there are 6 major reasons for this. 

Tune in to hear what these 6 reasons are and how the recent Ukrainian victories mark a critical juncture that will determine the course of the war.

00:00 Introduction

02:40 What is asymmetric momentum?

04:49 Ukrain’s positional warfare

06:55 Understanding Ukraine’s offensive and defensive strategies

08:16 Russia’s unintelligent retreat

10:37 How Russian political interests are affecting their progress

14:54 The poor discipline and lack of drive in Russian forces

16:42 Is the Russian army competent enough to win this war?

18:00 How Russia’s desire for a quick war is slowing their progress

20:40 Ukrainian motivation and their willingness to die for the right reasons

24:58 The impatient side of Russians uncovered

28:30 Many Russian conscripts will die due to lack of training and morale

29:36 The psychology behind Putin’s destructive Soviet-style leadership

32:04 Ukraine is playing the patient game

34:07 Summary

35:36 Parting thoughts 

Ukrainian victories on the ground have been swift, dramatic, and devastating. And each win seems to make them stronger.

Russian victories (back when they happened), seemed to be slow and grinding, and wear the Rusisans down, making them weaker.

Why is it that Russians lose momentum with each victory, but Ukrainians gain it? Why such asymmetric momentum?

I see 6 (or 7, depending) major reasons:

• 1. Russian Politics (“quick war”): impatience -> meat grinder, not admitting defeat, vs Ukraine’s patience
• 2. Russian Politics (show territorial progress): territory vs. Ukraine’s “defeat the enemy” -> meat grinder
• 3. Russian Politics (don’t let Ukraine show territorial progress): no retreat allowed -> break and rout
• 4. Morale, espirit de corps, discipline, "why are we here" vs fighting for home and life -> Ukrainians will die for the right reasons, Russians are drunk, will break and refuse to fight
• 5. Russian atrocities: hardens Ukrainian morale and turns them into 24/7 machines of war who get smarter and become veterans
• 6. Soviet vs. NATO style: NATO style allows for initiative and invests in training; Soviet style mass forces of limited training and centralized command means they are very predictable
• 7. Putin: total centralized control by someone who has clearly lost touch with reality

Reconsidermedia.com

Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia

Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/

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Mitchell Orenstein is a professor of Central and East European Politics in the Slavic department at the University of Pennsylvania and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard. His research focuses on the political economy and international affairs of Central and Eastern Europe.

This episode is the latest installment to the four-part series on Reconsidering Russia, where we try to dig into Russia's historical and geopolitical context to help you better understand some of their moves today and what's going on in their country today.

Tune in to hear Eric, Xander, and Professor Orenstein dive deep into Russia's real objective in Ukraine, Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership, why Russia really needs to diversify its economy, and so much more.

00:00 Introduction

01:35 Why Geopolitics is not about reforms or democracy

03:49 What does Russia really want?

05:49 Understanding Russia's national interests and foreign policy preferences

12:59 Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership

16:33 Comparing Russian perceptions to the American interpretation

20:10 What does the 'Near Abroad' mean?

20:54 The democratization of Russia's 'Near Abroad'

24:12 Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union

28:10 The strategic and fundamental importance of Ukraine

32:14 Russian interests in Finland

34:57 The Nature of Germany's relationship with Russia

39:01 Caucasus as a region of strategic importance to Russia

44:15 Chinese and Russian interests in South-East Asia

47:15 China-Russia relations: Eternal rivals or emerging alliance 

50:41 Russia's views on China's growth in power and influence 

52:38 Russia-Japan dispute over Kuril Islands 

54:50 Thoughts on Russia's domestic politics and foreign policy

58:35 Why Russia really needs to diversify its economy

01:01:58 What to expect from Russia in the next 5 to 10 years

01:05:18 Russia - a gas station with nuclear weapons

01:08:03 Parting thoughts 

Links and Resources:

Reconsidermedia.com

Mitchel's website - https://www.mitchellorenstein.com/

Mitchel's profile on the Foreign Affairs Magazine - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/mitchell-orenstein

Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia

Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/

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Time in Kyiv: 9am, Tues, Sep 13th.

Kharkiv Oblast is free.

Zelenksy announced about 6 weeks ago that a major counter-offensive in the South would take place. After a month of attacking bridges, rail depots, ammunition depots, C&C, bases, etc etc etc, the offensive started in earnest. 2 weeks in, they haven’t gotten a ton of territory back.

But, as all of us paying attention know, the Southern offensive may have been the greatest diversion in warfare since WWII itself. 

Over the last week, Ukraine launched the most dazzling counter-blitzkrieg I can think of. We’re going to go over all of that in its glorious detail here. 

There’s so, so, so much we don’t know. Lots of opsec, lots intentionally hidden from the public. What I can say with certainty is there will be many a movie made about this in Hollywood -- this is one of the great moments in military and geopolitical history, period. It is very, very likely the tide of the war has turned, and for good. David is now on top of Goliath, pummeling him.

Please excuse the sound. I wasn’t planning to record while on break here but I just couldn't help it. I don’t have my mic!

Russian History on Facebook 

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Mark Schauss is the host of Russian Rulers History and Battle Ground History. Known for being heavily well-versed with the history of Russia, Mark Schauss joins us in today’s episode to talk about the Russian history in its most authentic form. Mark shares everything from Russia’s first invasion to how all these historic events reflect on how Russia moves socio-politically in today’s world.  

• What made mark start his podcast and how it’s currently going. 
• The history of the first invasion and the second invasion of Russia. 
• The geography of Russia and why it’s easy to invade Russia but why it’s difficult to stay. 
• How Russia was able to balance European powers and how they were able to to set up alliances to protect their borders. 
• Mark shares all about the Napolean and Crimean war.
• The casualties of the Russian Civil War. 
• The transition period between 1917 to the World War 2. 
• How Russia came back from the 2nd World War as a superpower country. 

Russian History on Facebook 

Russian Rulers Podcast

Russian Rulers History

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