Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Andrew, Suren and Kamil to take stock of a global economy that is still holding up—just—three months into the Middle East conflict. Oil prices remain range‑bound for now, but the team warns that policy buffers are thinning and risks are becoming increasingly non‑linear. Asia is still benefiting from the AI boom, Europe’s economy looks more fragile as sentiment sours, while the Middle East itself faces mounting economic damage the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained. With talk of messy reopenings, tipping points and mounting stagflation risks, the outlook is becoming steadily more uneasy.

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