The regression fallacy occurs when people mistakenly attribute a causal relationship to variables that are only loosely correlated or have no causal connection at all. It arises from the tendency to focus on extreme or unusual outcomes and expect them to revert to the mean over time, even when there is no underlying reason to believe that they will.

Avoid the 'Regression Fallacy' by recognizing that extreme events are often followed by average outcomes. #RegressionFallacy #MentalModels #CriticalThinking #Bias #StatisticalThinking

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