Retired CIA Chief of Station and Senior Case Officer Glenn Corn argues the crises in Ukraine, Iran, Cuba, and the Strait of Hormuz are connected fronts in one larger fight.

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Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are back for a no-guest episode covering Ukraine, Russia, Iran, espionage, drones, Cuba, China, and the geopolitical pressure points that are moving fast right now.

Glenn opens with his recent trip to Ukraine, where he escorted an American business delegation and spoke at the Kiev Security Forum alongside senior intelligence and national security figures. From there, Ryan and Glenn dig into how Moscow negotiates, why Putin's ceasefire offer around May 9 should be treated skeptically, and why Glenn believes the United States and Europe still have more leverage over Russia than many people think.

In this episode, we cover:

• Glenn's latest trip to Ukraine with American investors and business leaders • Why Glenn sees Russia and Iran as linked strategic threats • How Russian negotiators use maximalist demands, theater, and psychological pressure • Julie Davis, US diplomatic coverage in Ukraine, and why Kyiv needs a full-time ambassador • Putin's May 9 Victory Day messaging and the history Russia leaves out • Russian and Iranian low-level espionage in Europe • The UAE, OPEC, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis • Why Glenn argues for an international naval force to reopen the straits • Iran's nuclear negotiations, political pressure, and the lessons of Ukrainian counter-drone warfare • Cuba sanctions, Venezuela, Nicaragua, China, and authoritarian pressure in the Western Hemisphere • China's drone swarm threat and America's procurement problem

This episode matters because Glenn frames these crises as part of a broader strategic contest, not isolated news cycles. Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela are applying pressure across multiple fronts, and the United States and its allies are still deciding how hard, how fast, and how coherently they are willing to respond.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Ryan opens the episode with Glenn back stateside • 01:01 Glenn's Ukraine trip with an American business delegation • 03:27 Kiev Security Forum and the Russia-Iran connection • 08:24 How Russian negotiators use maximalist demands • 12:15 Sanctions, Kirill Dmitriev, and pressure on Putin • 16:06 Julie Davis and why Ukraine needs a full-time US ambassador • 19:42 Territorial concessions and why Glenn says Russia is not holding the cards • 22:23 Victory Day, Soviet history, and Operation Snow • 26:59 Why Putin's May 9 ceasefire offer benefits Moscow • 28:30 Russian and Iranian espionage cases in Europe • 33:37 UAE, OPEC, and the Strait of Hormuz shock • 36:06 The case for an international naval force • 39:21 Iran's nuclear bluff and missed drone lessons • 43:03 Cuba sanctions and pressure in the Western Hemisphere • 45:50 China, AI, drone swarms, and US procurement gaps • 49:23 Upcoming guests and how to reach Glenn • 51:21 Wrap

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

This is what modern warfare actually looks like from the front lines.

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In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Zhan, a deputy commander in Ukraine's Third Army Corps, responsible for air defense operations on one of the most complex battlefields in the world.

Zhan went from serving in the merchant navy to defending Ukraine on the front lines and is now at the center of one of the most important evolutions in modern warfare.

This is not theory. This is real-time adaptation under fire.

In this episode, we cover:

• What the battlefield in Ukraine actually looks like today • How drones have completely changed warfare • The three-layer air defense system Ukraine built in real time • Why logistics and medevac are now some of the biggest challenges • How soldiers survive in underground positions for weeks or months • The shift from "golden hour" to "golden months" in battlefield medicine • Why FPV drones are now the most dangerous threat • How Ukraine is training civilians and veterans to fight with drones • The connection between the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East • What Ukraine needs most right now from Western allies

Zhan explains how Ukrainian forces are adapting faster than any military in modern history and why this war is shaping the future of global conflict.

He also shares a deeply personal perspective on what it means to fight for your country and what comes after the war.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Intro and Glenn's Ukraine trip • 05:13 How the war in Iran is affecting Ukraine • 12:04 Zhan joins from Kyiv • 13:07 Zhan's background and role in air defense • 18:39 Drone warfare and naval adaptation • 22:29 How fast soldiers can be trained on drones • 26:26 Layered air defense explained • 31:27 Logistics and medevac challenges • 36:35 Evolution from Bakhmut to today • 44:18 Comparing early war vs current battlefield • 53:27 Integration of UAVs and command systems • 58:27 Ukraine's view of the global war • 01:00:38 Zhan on the future of Ukraine

About Zhan

Zhan is a deputy commander in Ukraine's Third Army Corps specializing in air defense operations. He previously served in the merchant navy and joined the military at the start of the full-scale invasion.

He has participated in major battles including Bakhmut and Avdiivka and is now leading efforts to build modern counter-UAV and air defense systems in Ukraine.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

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Seventy four percent turnout in Hungary's election is not just politics. It is a signal.

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In this episode, Glenn Corn is joined by Dr. Monika Palotai, one of the leading experts on Central and Eastern Europe, to break down a historic election in Hungary.

With record voter turnout and global attention, this election is about far more than domestic politics.

It sits at the intersection of Russia, Ukraine, NATO, migration policy, and the future of Europe.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Hungary's election is drawing global attention • The significance of record breaking voter turnout • The real divide between Fidesz and the Tisza Party • Why both parties may be closer on policy than expected • Hungary's stance on Ukraine and why it matters • The role of migration and cultural identity in the election • How U.S. involvement is perceived inside Hungary • Why European leaders misread U.S. politics • The tension between national sovereignty and EU authority • What the outcome could mean for NATO and transatlantic relations

Dr. Palotai explains why the election is ultimately about sovereignty, identity, and economic survival, not just ideology.

She also provides insight into how Hungarian voters are thinking about Ukraine, energy security, and their place within Europe.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Monika Palotai background • 03:13 Record voter turnout and election atmosphere • 05:38 What is driving voter participation • 10:01 U.S. influence and JD Vance visit • 11:34 Fidesz vs Tisza explained • 16:00 Hungary's position on Ukraine • 20:01 Migration and cultural identity • 22:45 EU relations and sovereignty tensions • 24:38 Key issues for Hungarian voters • 30:01 Hungary Ukraine minority tensions • 33:44 NATO and U.S. relations • 36:13 Future EU dynamics depending on outcome • 40:18 Hungarian perspective on Iran war • 43:03 Cultural identity and national priorities • 46:18 Final thoughts on election significance

About Dr. Mónika Palotai

Dr. Monika Palotai is a senior research fellow at the Religious Freedom Institute and a non resident expert at the Warsaw Institute.

Her work focuses on geopolitics, EU law, energy security, and the relationships between Russia, China, and Iran. She has written extensively for Newsweek, The National Interest, RealClearDefense, and other major outlets.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

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Cuba is closer to collapse than at any point in decades and most people aren't paying attention.

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In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Moisés "Mo" Julião, retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and former Chief of Station, to break down what is really happening in Cuba right now.

From collapsing infrastructure to rising unrest, Cuba may be entering a phase that could reshape the Western Hemisphere.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why recent armed incursions into Cuba are not as unusual as they seem • The historical context shaping Cuban behavior today • How the Cuban regime maintains control through isolation • The real economic crisis unfolding on the island • The impact of fuel shortages, blackouts, and food supply breakdowns • Why remittances from the United States are keeping the system alive • The role of Russia and recent oil shipments into Cuba • The potential for regime transition and what comes next • Why humanitarian collapse is a real risk • How Cuban intelligence historically outperformed expectations

Mo explains why Cuba operates in a "time capsule" shaped by the 1959 revolution and Cold War dynamics, and why that mindset still drives decisions today.

He also provides a sobering look at how quickly conditions could deteriorate into a full humanitarian crisis.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Mo Julião background • 03:22 Armed incursions and historical context • 06:08 U.S. presence and embassy realities • 07:00 Daily life inside Cuba and information control • 10:50 Remittances and economic survival • 12:49 Signs of instability and protests • 16:00 Regime survival and backchannel discussions • 18:20 Cuban perception of the United States • 20:14 The Russia tanker decision and strategic signaling • 21:06 Power dynamics inside the Castro system • 23:04 Cuban intelligence and espionage success • 28:04 Infrastructure collapse and economic fragility • 32:31 Risk of humanitarian crisis • 36:35 Policy options and missed opportunities • 45:00 Cultural insight and the "next revolution"

About Moisés "Mo" Julião

Moisés "Mo" Julião is the founder and CEO of Alenttay Solutions and a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer.

He served over two decades in the CIA's Directorate of Operations, including as Chief of Station and in multiple conflict zones. He also served as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and worked closely with special operations forces.

Alenttay Solutions https://alenttay.com/

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/moises-e-juliao-esq-2b97b5250

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

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Armenia is caught between Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan and may be one of the most important geopolitical battlegrounds you are not watching.

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In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Sarkis Karabashian to break down one of the most complex and underreported regions in global geopolitics.

Armenia sits at the crossroads of major powers, bordering Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with deep historical and strategic ties to Russia.

As the war with Iran unfolds and Russia remains tied down in Ukraine, Armenia is navigating one of the most fragile strategic environments in the world.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why Armenia exists in one of the most difficult geopolitical neighborhoods on earth • How Armenia moved from Russian dominance to a multi partner security strategy • The impact of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and what it revealed • Why Russia failed to protect Armenia and what that means going forward • The role of Turkey and Azerbaijan in shaping Armenia's security environment • How energy routes and transport corridors drive regional decisions • The Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity and what it means • Russian disinformation and influence inside Armenia • Why Armenia is trying to balance relations with Iran without getting pulled into conflict • What Armenia can offer the United States as a strategic partner

Sarkis explains how Armenia is attempting to transition from a Russia dependent security model to a diversified strategy involving the United States, Europe, India, and France.

He also highlights the risks facing Armenian communities in the region, including the danger of spillover from broader conflicts.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Sarkis Karabashian background • 03:41 Armenia's position in the Iran conflict • 07:55 Collapse of Soviet influence and Armenia's early trajectory • 12:00 The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and military imbalance • 17:18 Russia's failure as a security guarantor • 20:30 Armenia shifts toward new partners • 21:07 Russian disinformation and internal pressure • 24:11 Regional tensions and Turkey Armenia dynamics • 28:14 The Trump Road and transport corridor strategy • 33:09 Early signs of economic normalization • 36:10 Is peace actually possible in the region • 39:58 Armenia's strategic opportunity • 45:00 Risks to Armenian populations in Iran

About Sarkis Karabashian

Sarkis Karabashian is a geopolitical analyst specializing in Armenian security, Eurasian geopolitics, and regional conflict dynamics.

He has conducted extensive field research in Armenia and has worked with policy institutions in Washington, DC, focusing on U.S. Armenia strategic relations and regional security developments.

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

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Today we're going deep on how oil and energy, not troops, will decide the outcome in Iran and Russia. The war in Iran may be about ideology, but the outcome will be decided by energy.

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In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Ambassador Matthew Bryza, one of the leading experts on energy geopolitics in Eurasia.

Ambassador Bryza served as: • U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan• Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs• Director at the National Security Council

He now works as a Managing Director at Straife Istanbul and advises on global energy and geopolitical risk.

This conversation breaks down one of the most important but overlooked drivers of global conflict: Energy.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why the Strait of Hormuz is the center of global economic risk• How energy prices are shaping decisions in Iran, Russia, and Europe• Why Russia is benefiting financially from the Iran war• How natural gas and fertilizer shortages could trigger global instability• The long-term impact of shutting down oil and LNG production• Why infrastructure like pipelines takes decades to build but minutes to disrupt• The strategic importance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline• Why Europe cannot quickly replace Russian or Gulf energy• The political implications of energy dependency in NATO and the EU• Why energy security is national security

Ambassador Bryza explains why the current conflict could reshape global energy markets for years and why even a short disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cascading effects across food supply, manufacturing, aviation, and global trade.

He also details why Russia's war effort may be strengthened in the short term due to rising energy prices.

Timeline / chapters• 00:00 Intro• 02:34 Why energy is driving global conflict• 05:49 Key energy indicators to watch• 14:22 Why the world cannot replace Gulf energy• 19:39 Energy alliances and regional geopolitics• 22:25 The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline explained• 29:36 Why energy infrastructure shapes independence• 31:49 Future energy strategy for the US and allies• 34:33 Turkey, Azerbaijan, and regional responses• 41:38 Russia, Ukraine, and the Druzhba pipeline• 44:33 Final thoughts on energy and geopolitics

About Ambassador Matthew Bryza

Matthew Bryza is a former U.S. diplomat who served 23 years in the Foreign Service, including as U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and held senior roles at the State Department and National Security Council focused on Eurasian energy, regional conflicts, and U.S. policy toward Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. He played a central role in advancing major Caspian energy projects, including the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, making him one of the leading U.S. experts on global energy security and geopolitics. Today, he is based in Istanbul, where he serves as Managing Director of Straife Istanbul, advising companies on sanctions compliance, geopolitical risk, and market expansion across Türkiye and the Greater Caspian region; he is also Regional Managing Partner at Ballard Partners, and a longtime Board Member of The Jamestown Foundation.

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-bryza-050180156/

Straife Group

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

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Russia does not have allies. It has accomplices and isn't afraid to exploit those relationships.

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In this episode, Ryan Fugit sits down with Sean Wiswesser, retired CIA Senior Operations Officer and former Chief of Station, to break down Russian intelligence tradecraft, espionage, and the future of conflict.

Sean brings nearly 30 years of experience in national security, with a career focused on Russian intelligence, counterintelligence, and denied area operations.

His new book, Tradecraft Tactics and Dirty Tricks: Russian Intelligence and Putin's Secret War, pulls back the curtain on how Russian intelligence really operates.

In this conversation, we cover:

• What "denied areas" really mean and why they matter• Why Russian intelligence is both highly capable and deeply corrupt• The truth about Russian illegals and long-term espionage networks• How Russia prepares for war through intelligence operations• Why Russia has no true allies, including Iran and China• The role of propaganda and internal repression in maintaining power• Why Russia miscalculated Ukraine and how it adapted• What a post-war Ukraine looks like from an intelligence perspective• Why the Baltics are likely Russia's next focus• The importance of human intelligence in predicting global events

Sean explains why Russian intelligence culture has remained consistent for over a century and why understanding that history is critical to predicting future behavior.

He also lays out why the war in Ukraine is not just a regional conflict, but a defining test of democratic resolve.

Timeline / Chapters

• 00:00 Intro• 03:00 What are denied areas• 07:30 CIA tradecraft and Burton Gerber legacy• 12:00 Russia, Iran, and transactional alliances• 17:00 Russian intelligence failures in Ukraine• 22:00 Illegals and deep cover espionage• 27:00 Why Russia fears its own people• 32:00 Ukraine war and Western strategy• 36:00 Russia's next war and NATO risks• 40:00 Navalny and internal repression• 44:00 What comes next for Russia

About Sean Wiswesser

Sean Wiswesser is a retired CIA Senior Operations Officer and former Chief of Station with nearly three decades of experience in intelligence and national security.

His work focused heavily on Russian intelligence operations, counterintelligence, and denied area operations.

His upcoming book:

Tradecraft Tactics and Dirty Tricks: Russian Intelligence and Putin's Secret War is available April 21, 2026

at Amazon val Institute Press

• LinkedIn
• X (Twitter) @Wiswesser

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

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"RIght now would be a great time to start meeting and pitching Iranians like we did with the Stasi after the Wall fell...."

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Get the daily intelligence brief covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, sanctions, intelligence operations, and geopolitical competition.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Paula Doyle, retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and former Associate Deputy Director of Operations.

Paula spent more than two decades in the intelligence community running global human intelligence operations and later serving as Deputy National Counterintelligence Executive.

She now teaches intelligence and national security at Georgetown University and writes for The Cipher Brief.

This conversation goes deep into the Iran war, Russia's role, and the strategic mistakes the United States made over decades of dealing with Tehran.

🎙️ In this episode we discuss:

• Why the U.S.–Iran conflict actually began decades ago • How "proxy warfare" allowed Iran to wage war without consequences • The role of Hezbollah and Iranian militias in killing U.S. troops • Why sanctions and diplomacy failed to change Iran's behavior • What the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader actually means • The internal fractures inside the IRGC • Why arming Kurdish groups could be a dangerous mistake • The future of Iran without the theocracy • Whether a new Iranian leader could emerge from inside the system • The strategic implications for Russia and China

Paula explains why the United States spent decades using "sophistry" — softening the truth about what Iran was doing — instead of confronting the reality that we were already at war.

She also describes the real internal dynamics inside Iran's security services and why the next phase of this conflict could depend on defections and fractures inside the regime.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Introducing Paula Doyle 03:00 Why the U.S.–Iran war really began decades ago 08:00 The birth of "proxy warfare" 12:00 How Iran killed hundreds of U.S. troops in Iraq 17:00 Why diplomacy and sanctions failed 22:00 Mojtaba Khamenei and Iran's leadership succession 27:00 The dangers of arming Kurdish groups 31:00 Why Iran's regime could fracture internally 35:00 Russia, China, and the wider geopolitical stakes 40:00 What gives hope for Iran's future

ABOUT PAULA DOYLE

Paula Doyle is a retired Senior Intelligence Service officer at the CIA who spent more than two decades leading global intelligence operations.

She served as: • Associate Deputy Director of Operations• Deputy National Counterintelligence Executive• Multiple-time Chief of Station

She now teaches intelligence and national security at Georgetown University and writes for The Cipher Brief.

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORN

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

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Iran's leadership has been decapitated — but the real question is what comes next.

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Get the daily intelligence brief covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, sanctions, and geopolitical competition.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Glenn Corn sits down with Ambassador David Hale, former U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, Pakistan, and Jordan and former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

Ambassador Hale previously warned — months before these events — that the core strategic problem in the Middle East was Iran itself, not just its proxies.

Now, after U.S. and Israeli strikes that decapitated major parts of Iran's leadership, we revisit that argument and ask:

What happens now?

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• Why the U.S.–Iran conflict really goes back to 1979 • Why previous presidents failed to change Iran's behavior • Why Iran ultimately only responds to force • Whether the Iranian regime can survive leadership decapitation • The real strategic importance of Hezbollah and Lebanon • Why Arab Gulf states may actually move closer to the U.S. after these strikes • What China and Russia are learning from the war • Why Iran's retaliation strategy may backfire • The energy market implications and Strait of Hormuz risks • Why the U.S. must stay engaged even after the fighting ends

Ambassador Hale explains why the Iranian leadership's attacks on Gulf states may actually strengthen regional alignment against Tehran — and why Iran's military position may be weaker than many assume.

He also warns that regime collapse is not necessarily the goal, and that the real objective should be preventing Iran from intimidating the region.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Glenn Introduces Ambassador Hale 02:00 "The Heart of the Problem Was Iran" 06:30 Why Iran Only Responds to Force 10:00 Why Iran Is Striking Gulf States 16:00 Oil Markets & Strait of Hormuz 21:00 Could Iran Negotiate Now? 25:00 What Happens Inside the IRGC 29:00 Lebanon, Hezbollah & Political Shift 36:00 Russia and China Watching Closely 42:00 Lessons From 40 Years of Iran Policy 48:00 The Risks of Regime Collapse

ABOUT AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE

Ambassador David Hale is one of the most experienced U.S. diplomats of the modern era.

He served as: • U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon • U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan • U.S. Ambassador to Jordan • Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (the #3 position at the State Department)

He is currently: • Distinguished Fellow at the Wilson Center • Professor at the Institute of World Politics

Wilson Center Profile https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/david-hale

Institute of World Politics Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/ambassador-david-hale/

HOW TO FIND GLENN CORN

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief https://www.restrictedhandling.com/

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The Supreme Leader is dead — now what happens next?

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Get the daily intelligence brief Glenn and Ryan read — covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, geopolitics, sanctions, and military operations.

This is ROUND 2 w/ Tony DeMario who spent 30+ years on Iran and regional proxies at CIA.

After the decapitation strikes. After Operation Epic Fury and Operation Lion's Roar. After U.S. and Israeli forces eliminated Iran's Supreme Leader and dozens of senior IRGC officials.

Tony DeMario returns to break down what comes next.

Tony is a former senior CIA officer with 34 years in the Army and Agency, specializing in Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian regional proxies. He currently serves as Executive Vice President at Strider Technologies, a strategic intelligence firm focused on geopolitical risk and nation-state competition.

This episode goes beyond headlines.

We discuss the collapse of Iran's leadership structure, succession risks, proxy retaliation, Russia's angle, China's oil calculus, and whether regime change is even realistic.

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• The strategic impact of killing Iran's Supreme Leader • Why this is historically unprecedented • Whether Iran's security apparatus can reconstitute • Hezbollah and proxy retaliation risks • The role of Russia in prolonging instability • China's oil dependency on Iran • Succession scenarios inside Tehran • Whether Reza Pahlavi is viable (spoiler: unlikely) • Why "nation building" is not on the table • The risk of Libya- or Iraq-style fragmentation • What sustained U.S. strikes would look like • The danger of premature celebration

Tony explains why:

• Decapitation alone doesn't equal regime collapse• Infrastructure destruction matters more than leadership removal• Iran's bureaucracy is deeper than many realize• Russia benefits from U.S. distraction• This is the weakest Iran has been in decades — but that doesn't guarantee stability

Just clear-eyed analysis of a historic moment.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

• 00:00 Intro 03:00 The Decapitation Strategy 10:00 IRGC & MOIS Reconstitution 16:00 Hezbollah & Proxy Threat 22:00 Russia's Incentives 29:00 China & Oil Calculus 35:00 Succession & Assembly of Experts 41:00 Could Iran Fragment? 48:00 What Nation Building Would Require 55:00 Final Assessment

Tony DeMario is a former senior CIA officer with 34 years of service in the Army and Agency. He led teams focused on Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian proxy networks across the Middle East.

He currently serves as Executive Vice President at Strider Technologies, a strategic intelligence firm specializing in geopolitical risk and state-backed economic threats.

Strider Technologies: https://www.striderintel.com/

Tony DeMario on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tony-demario/

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multiple-time Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Subscribe and receive the daily intel brief: https://www.restrictedhandling.com/