Summary
In this episode, I spoke with Fire Chief Dr. Eric Saylors. Dr. Saylors has spent 30+ years asking a question most of the profession struggles with: how do you prove the value of a disaster that never happened? In this episode he lays out a practical answer — define risk as threats, consequences, and vulnerabilities, recognize that vulnerability is the only one you actually control, and then get honest about what's sitting on the roulette table. Dr. Saylors shares the moment he reframed his department's budget for a skeptical mayor, why avoided-loss estimates rest on causal chains and case studies rather than statistical proof, and why arguing only for your own budget costs you credibility. He also covers the two-part story that moves elected officials, where AI genuinely helps with mass-casualty math, the Oakland Hills hydrant-adapter failure, and his work at HEN Technologies helping incident commanders get unstuck at "orient" in the OODA loop.
Time Stamps
01:13 Intro and guest background
02:25 Outputs vs. outcomes — how should we define success?
06:15 What should you measure at project initiation?
10:45 How do you make an avoided-loss estimate credible?
13:20 What destroys credibility — and the $20M cut that started it all
14:50 Long-horizon projects vs. short political cycles (Galveston seawall)
19:40 AI, dashboards, and separating impact from activity counts
23:20 Translating technical findings across agencies and silos
26:15 Practical first steps for measuring an existing program
31:25 Realistic drilling and simulated environments
35:30 HEN Technologies and the cognitive load of command
About
Eric Saylors is the author of Quantifying a Negative (2015), Sense Making in Risk Assessments (2022), and The 7-Year Active Shooter Study (2026). He is a Fire Chief with over 30 years of experience and holds a Doctorate in Leadership from the University of Southern California. In addition to serving as Product Lead for HEN Technologies, Eric currently serves as Fire Chief of the El Cerrito–Kensington Fire Department, having previously spent 25 years with the Sacramento City Fire Department. Over the course of his career, he has served in every rank from firefighter/paramedic to Fire Chief, including engineer, captain, battalion chief, and assistant chief. His operational experience includes assignments on ambulances, fire engines, ladder trucks, a Type 1 HazMat team, and a heavy rescue unit.
He has responded to and managed a wide range of incidents, including high-rise fires, large commercial fires, wildland-urban interface incidents, basement fires, and balloon-frame construction fires. Prior to joining executive leadership, he served as Battalion Chief 1 in downtown Sacramento, one of the busiest operational areas in the region. In addition to his doctorate, Dr. Saylors holds two associate degrees, a bachelor’s degree in finance, and a master’s degree in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School. He regularly consults with fire departments nationwide on active shooter response, leadership development, succession planning, and post-incident analysis, and has published more than twenty articles on homeland security and fire service topics.
Links
LinkedIn for Dr. Eric Saylors
https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-saylors-ed-d-09778188/
Saylors, E. (2015). Quantifying the negative: How homeland security adds value. Homeland Security Affairs. https://www.hsaj.org/articles/9307
Saylors, E. (2023). Sensemaking in Risk Assessments: An Innovation Study. University of Southern California. https://www.academia.edu/122185501/Sensemaking_in_Risk_Assessments_An_Innovation_Study
Youtube (note- there are many more as well, on the Weekly Scrap and others)
Weekly Scrap #206 - Eric Saylors, Responding to the Intentional MCI
https://www.youtube.com/live/RM9GeuFoMpQ?si=FFvur0gLpgz0PCNP
