Rigatoni Capital Podcast

Bond yields are spiking everywhere, with the Japan 10-year hitting a three decade high, and I get into why the carry trade footprint is still large even after the 2024 blowup. I walk through the profits I took in TQQQ, Palantir and Lam Research to build a little cushion, why I still admit there is circular funding in the AI trade but stay bullish long term, plus Home Depot earnings and Canadian tariffs, my Strategy bag holder update, Monday.com and the AI disruption story, the Morgan Stanley Amazon $500 bull case I am skeptical of, the UBS Nvidia earnings preview into the Rubin ramp, RTX winning a $23 billion Tomahawk contract, and Perth Tolle's FRDM as my only emerging markets exposure.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning markets podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

This episode was streamed live on X and YouTube. You can find me on X at @Djhottowns.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Timestamps:

0:00 Market Overview & Intro

1:03 Trimming TQQQ Profits

2:38 Palantir Profit Taking

3:30 Lam Research Trim & AI Bubble Concerns

5:43 Using AI to Research the News

6:30 Japan Yields & Carry Trade Risk

9:19 Home Depot Earnings & Tariffs

10:31 Strategy (MSTR) & Bitcoin Leverage

14:12 Monday.com Earnings & AI Disruption

19:12 Amazon Bull Case & AWS Outlook

21:31 Nvidia Earnings Preview

24:18 RTX Tomahawk Contract & Defense Stocks

26:37 Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM)

32:09 Reading 13F Hedge Fund Filings

34:40 Closing Thoughts

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #bondyields #carrytrade #Nvidia #Amazon #RTX #Palantir #Strategy #Bitcoin #emergingmarkets #RigatoniCapital

$QQQ $TQQQ $PLTR $LRCX $NVDA $AMZN $HD $MSTR $RTX $FRDM $MNDY $TDG

Semis keep ripping with names like Cerebras, SanDisk, Marvell and Western Digital leading the way. I get into the Wall Street Journal piece on AI circular funding and off balance sheet backstops, why I am looking for investments detached from the AI CapEx trade, Figure Technologies, Stripe acquiring OpenRouter, Apple training an AI model in China with Alibaba, Hartnett's long gold trade, and Michael Burry's updated portfolio.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning markets podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

This episode was streamed live on X and YouTube. You can find me on X at @Djhottowns.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:

0:22 Intro: Rigatoni Capital podcast overview1:20 Explaining the newswire/news terminal setup1:41 Feedly/Zerohedge/WSJ news sources7:47 WSJ article on AI circular funding/backstops12:40 Looking for investments detached from AI CapEx trade15:33 Figure Technologies (FIGR) discussion18:46 Stripe acquiring OpenRouter21:04 Apple training AI model in China with Alibaba26:54 Hartnett's long gold trade29:17 Michael Burry's updated portfolio

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #semiconductors #AI #hyperscalers #Figure #Stripe #Apple #gold #MichaelBurry #RigatoniCapital

$NVDA $SMH $AVGO $WDC $MRVL $FIGR $AMD $AAPL $BABA $GLD $MELI $QQQ

I test out the live stream and read through some of the latest 13Fs for fun, including Berkshire, Bill Gates Foundation, Bill Ackman, David Tepper, Seth Klarman and a few others, plus the Nvidia and SB Energy news that dropped over the weekend. Read the full write-up and see my portfolio on the Rigatoni Capital Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning markets podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

This episode was streamed live on X and YouTube. You can find me on X at @Djhottowns.

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #13F #Berkshire #BillAckman #DavidTepper #SethKlarman #RigatoniCapital

$BRK.B $HD $GOOGL $AMZN $NVDA $MU $NFLX $SPGI $QSR $V

I open on the SanDisk CEO's Squawk Box clip about dampening the cyclicality of memory, and while it is a good company I would rather own the SMH than pick winners in a crowded chip trade. Retail sales came in soft at minus 0.6%, another reason for the Fed to hold.

The bigger theme is the 13Fs rolling in, and the lesson is to look where the crowd is not. AI infrastructure names only run while the data centers are being built, so a long term investor can afford Visa or Netflix down here. Seth Klarman added to Amazon and Alphabet and started a CME position, Triple Frond entered into DoorDash and S&P Global, and Chris Hohn's TCI fully exited Microsoft, which we knew was coming, while adding more Alphabet. I also cover why the IGV has recovered well off its AI disruption lows with Palantir hitting $180, while ground zero names like Salesforce and Monday still lag, Simeon McMillan upgrading Duolingo, and Marc Rudajev of Learning.Investing.Thriving on his new post about leveraged daily ETFs.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and SanDisk CEO clip on cyclicality4:41 NAND vs DRAM, portfolio update (Nvidia/Broadcom)6:13 Bitcoin, oil, and Netflix/Ackman discussion9:28 AI infrastructure trade and software disruption (Duolingo, IGV, Palantir)19:20 13F roundup: Seth Klarman and Triple Frond Partners25:26 Retail sales and global liquidity/Treasury debt29:22 Chris Hohn 13F and outro

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #13F #ChrisHohn #SethKlarman #BillAckman #SanDisk #Palantir #Netflix #Microsoft #Alphabet #RigatoniCapital

$WDC $SMH $NVDA $AVGO $NFLX $PLTR $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $CME $DASH $SPGI $V $DUOL $QQQ

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square opened six new positions, and one of them is Netflix, a stock I already own and that I have talked about being on a roughly 50% discount. It always feels good when a big investor buys something you thought was valuable, and I get into why Ackman sees Netflix as a de-rated winner from over 40 times forward earnings down to 21, the same way he played the Chipotle E. coli selloff. His other new buys are Visa, MasterCard, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange and Alcon, blue chips he is scooping up while the crowd chases AI infrastructure.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #BillAckman #PershingSquare #Netflix #Visa #Mastercard #13F #RigatoniCapital

$NFLX $V $MA $SPGI $ICE $ALC

July CPI came in at 3.4% year over year, roughly in line, and market odds for a September rate hike fell to around 34%. As always, this is not a news show, and the point is keeping your eye on the ball as a long term investor rather than reacting to headlines. I get into the softness in the consumer showing up in the Berkshire operating businesses and the K-shape economy.

AI infrastructure names beat big, with CoreWeave up around 20% on doubled revenue and Supermicro up 10%. Goldman kept a buy on Nvidia at $285 heading into a print that will hinge on Jensen's guidance on margins, the Rubin ramp, and the $500 billion financing platform. I also cover why Rollins looks like the dog of the market despite being a sticky pest control business, and a fun Cava versus Chipotle same store sales comparison where the average Cava now out-earns the average Chipotle location.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #CPI #inflation #Fed #Nvidia #CoreWeave #Micron #Supermicro #Rollins #Cava #Chipotle #earnings #RigatoniCapital

$NVDA $CRWV $MU $SMCI $LITE $ROL $CAVA $CMG $QQQ $BRK.B $TQQQ

The big story is Nvidia and Wall Street firms like Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR striking an AI financing deal targeting $500 billion to fund Nvidia's customers, from the neoclouds to whoever Jensen Huang sees an opportunity in, rather than putting it on Nvidia's own balance sheet.

Nvidia is my largest position and I get into both sides. The bull case is that this locks in long term contracts and keeps customers trained on CUDA, which is the real switching cost, and if you believe AI has a coming ROI, the circular funding bear case dies. The bear case is that Nvidia sits at ground zero of a circle jerk with no ROI, with a tech that could become commoditized and over exposed frontier labs like an OpenAI or Anthropic. These are MOUs, not signed contracts, so I would rather it stay measured.

I also cover Bank of America downgrading AppLovin to $400 and the Unity competition threat that blindsided me, though I am holding one more quarter on a cash cow, plus the Bitcoin ColdCard hack, why it feels like a crisis yet Bitcoin holds.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Nvidia #circularfunding #AI #hyperscalers #BlackRock #Blackstone #GoldmanSachs #AppLovin #Unity #ColdCard #CUDA #RigatoniCapital

$NVDA $QQQ $CRWV $BLK $BX $GS $KKR $BAM $APP $U $BRK.B $AXP $CB $WM $TDG

The big Monday headline is Berkshire Hathaway reporting earnings and being a net buyer of stocks, with oil green and the market still climbing a wall of worry over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The point of my weekend post is that Berkshire's operating businesses are the real read on the economy, not the flashy stuff.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #Berkshire #WarrenBuffett #GregAbel #Geico #BNSF #operatingprofit #economy #earnings #RigatoniCapital

$BRK.B $AAPL $GOOGL $AXP $BAC $KO $TRV $CB $NVDA $AMZN $NET $QQQ

Stocks jumped, especially tech, on a weak jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 jobs, which markets read as the Fed being less likely to raise. My take is this is background noise and mostly an excuse for a V-shaped bounce to continue after the Nasdaq's 10% correction, with unemployment actually ticking down to 4.1%. Kalshi traders now price a 62% chance of no change versus 34% for a 25 bps hike.

I think the Fed debate is overblown, since a quarter point does little, and the real mystery is how Kevin Warsh plans to shrink a balance sheet with $40 trillion in debt and sensitive overnight rates. I also do not buy the narrative that inflation is because of the World Cup. Berkshire Hathaway reports this weekend and I will recap it on Substack, since it gives the best read on the economy through its rails, utilities and energy businesses.

On software, Cloudflare popped 13% on strong growth even though it is not profitable, and the beat and raise names got rewarded while weak guides got punished. I get into the Pentagon munitions shortage story and the reported Camp David clash, why I want to own RTX, Northrop, Lockheed, General Dynamics and L3Harris because the war machine never ends, and Chris Camillo's tough Sweetgreen wrap thesis. Airbnb raised its full year forecast on strong demand, and a Goldman chart shows hyperscaler free cash flow really exploding by early 2029, which fits my thesis of holding Amazon and the Nasdaq 100 through the CapEx cycle. I close on why the market looks like it wants to retest Nasdaq and Nvidia all time highs.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #jobsreport #Fed #Cloudflare #Airbnb #hyperscalers #defensestocks #Berkshire #software #earnings #RigatoniCapital

$QQQ $AMZN $NVDA $NET $ABNB $BRK.B $PLTR $APP $RTX $NOC $LMT $GD $LHX $SG $GOOGL $MSFT $META $ORCL

Earnings were ugly with AppLovin down as much as 27%, Datadog off 15%, and SanDisk down 11%, as weak guides got punished across growth software even when year over year numbers looked fine. DoorDash and Nvidia are up this morning, jobless claims came in hot at 197K, and the Nasdaq is soft, likely a continuation of Alphabet's slide after news that chief scientist Jeff Dean is leaving in a wave of exits to start an AI company.

I explain why I would not rush to buy the Alphabet dip up here even as I agree everyone is replaceable, why the OpenAI headline that it drives most of Microsoft's AI revenue does not surprise me, and why the Morgan Stanley three scenarios chart is overthinking it since the hyperscalers win in all of them.

My post "AppLovin's Q2: A Cash Cow in the Penalty Box" gets into why I am holding but disappointed they did not raise guidance, plus the slow consumer ad rollout. I close on gold and silver breaking out, copper near all time highs, the Pentagon missile depletion report, and Japan looking to Palantir for battlefield AI.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

44:57 Japan and Palantir, and closing thoughts

#investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #AppLovin #Datadog #Alphabet #Palantir #software #earnings #gold #silver #copper #hyperscalers #RigatoniCapital

$APP $DDOG $WDC $GOOGL $NVDA $MSFT $PLTR $DASH $SHOP $QQQ $MELI $AXON