This episode features Cliff Kupchan, Chairman of Eurasia Group, discussing the firm's 2026 Top Risks report and the dramatically changed role of the United States in the international system. Brandon & Nick explore how US domestic political convulsions create ripple effects globally, positioning America, not Russia, as the primary source of geopolitical risk. Kupchan analyzes Trump 2.0's muscular unilateralism, the "Donroe Doctrine" asserting control over the Western Hemisphere, state capitalism with American characteristics, and rising political violence domestically, including ICE raid activity in Minnesota. The discussion examines affordability crises, tariff dynamics with China, Greenland acquisition speculation, European security concerns, and Venezuela's uncertain future following US military intervention. We also touch on optimistic counterpoints around AI, India's growth, and Democratic electoral prospects.
Intertwined throughout are Brandon & Nick’s observations on Minneapolis turmoil, wine pairings (Humano Tequila Reposado and Caparsa Chianti Classico 2021), and lighter moments including a "truth and lie" trivia segment about Maine's proximity to Africa, Venus cloud composition, and Mount Everest measurements.
Key Takeaways
• The US is now the primary source of global political risk, displacing Russia, a historic shift reflecting the US dismantling the international system it created post-1945
• Greenland acquisition could destroy transatlantic trust, the foundation of NATO and EU-US economic relationships, with cascading consequences for global financial markets
• Midterm elections (2026) offer potential circuit-breaker: Democrats likely to take House back (~80% probability), enabling oversight and restraining Trump's most aggressive impulses
• AI and India represent genuine upside: Massive efficiency gains in insurance (200 basis point expense ratio reduction), AI revenue, and 7% Indian growth offer offsetting optimism
Episode Chapters
01:11 — Humano Tequila Reposado & Caparsa Chianti Classico 2021 Tasting Notes
04:17 — Howden M&A Strategy, Broker Litigation, and Alliance Capital Restraining Order
06:13 — Insurance Industry Expense Ratios & AI Impact ($9.3B Operating Income Uplift Forecast)
13:04 — Minneapolis ICE Raids, Political Violence, and State Security Concerns
23:26 — Venezuela Regime Change & Oil Uninvestability Discussion
30:19 — Cliff Kupchan Introduction & Eurasia Group Top Risks 2026
34:34 — Globalization Backlash & Right-Wing Populism Drivers
40:42 — State Capitalism, Credit Card Caps, and Trump's Contradictory Vision
43:56 — Tariff Negotiations with China & "Peak Tariff" Assessment
46:24 — Greenland Acquisition as Transatlantic Relationship Risk
51:50 — Democratic Midterm Prospects & Checks-and-Balances Outlook
53:37 — Positive Counterpoints: AI, India, and Saudi Arabia Reform
56:34 — Guest Departs; Return to Host Discussion
57:00 — Lake Minnetonka Geography Fact-Check (Swimming Distance Verification)
58:23 — "Truth & Lie" Trivia: Maine-Africa Distance, Venus Clouds, Mount Everest
01:03:52 — Show Wrap-Up & YouTube Channel Announcement
Fact Checks: Corrected Facts Only
Claim: Mount Everest is the tallest mountain when measured base to peak
• Status: INCOMPLETE/MISLEADING
• Correction: Mount Everest is highest by sea level elevation (29,032 ft), but Denali (Mount McKinley) has greater vertical rise from base to peak (~18,000+ ft vs. Everest's ~12,000-15,000 ft base-to-peak)
Connect with RiskCellar:
Website: https://www.riskcellar.com/
Guest: Cliff Kupchan
Website: https://www.eurasiagroup.net/people/ckupchan
Organization Website: https://www.eurasiagroup.net
Email: [email protected]
Brandon Schuh:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61552710523314
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brandon-stephen-schuh/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/schuhpapa/
Nick Hartmann:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nickjhartmann/