Riskology by Infortal

By Thomas FoxBusiness Management

Riskology by Infortal episodes

April 08, 2024 Riskology by Infortal Episode 22: China Escape Plan: De-Risking Explained
Welcome to another episode of Riskology by Infortal™!
In this episode, your hosts, Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Christopher Mason, discuss "de-risking” from China. They unveil the cascading effects of China's economic slowdown on the global economy and supply chain integrity, a situation that demands scrutiny by American companies.
Understanding the underpinnings of China's economic conditions is paramount to assessing your risk exposure. As China wrestles with economic deceleration, corporations face expanding risks, including new threats to supply chain stability. This impacts key industries and manufacturers in the US, including the tech sector and healthcare suppliers.
Navigating this risk landscape calls for robust resiliency measures coupled with an enhanced understanding of the global risk landscape. As history reminds us, economic entanglement may not provide a safe harbor from geopolitical unrest.
In response to these complex geopolitical tensions, corporations increasingly seek new strategies to mitigate risks and ensure company resiliency. This includes diverse approaches, from strategic realignment exemplified by Apple's shift of some iPhone manufacturing to India to developing contingency plans ready to be deployed as needed.
In this episode, we discuss how companies can methodically develop a strategy to ensure long-term supply chain stability.
We hope you join us for Episode 22 – China Escape Plan: De-Risking Explained.

Resources:
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
25 min
March 25, 2024 Riskology by Infortal Episode 21: Due Diligence & Geopolitical Risk
As the global economic landscape broadens, companies find themselves navigating complex and challenging terrain that can profoundly affect their operations and financial standing.
On today’s episode of ‘Due Diligence & Geopolitical Risk,’ join Chris Mason and Ian Oxnevad as they discuss the pivotal role ‘Geopolitical Risk Intelligence’ plays in corporate strategy.
This conversation dives into a thorough examination of local developments, political shifts, and global trends, exploring how they are intricately woven together and impact various business activities. Discussion points also cover an inside look at how this unique form of intelligence works to safeguard against potential threats while accentuating valuable business opportunities.
Stay tuned to learn how to successfully deploy geopolitical risk intelligence, tap into lucrative prospects, and fortify your corporate standing.
On a more pragmatic application level, our speakers share insights on the structured and analytical process behind geopolitical risk intelligence. They delve into the intricacies of understanding international affairs and market dynamics, vetting potential employees and investment opportunities, and avoiding potential legal entanglements and reputational damage.
The episode provides a comprehensive outlook on maintaining a fountainhead of geopolitical analysis, making it possible for corporations to stay prepared for any impending changes in the business landscape.
Resources:
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
27 min
March 04, 2024Riskology by Infortal Episode 20: AI - Governance Nightmare or Superpower with Matt Kelly
The rise of AI has brought with it both blessing and curse. Companies worldwide and the organizations that govern them are racing to navigate and leverage it. In today's episode, Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Chris Mason, and guest Matt Kelly delve into the intricate world of AI and its profound implications on compliance and geopolitical risk management. In the race to harness AI, thoughtful adoption and strategic implementation are crucial.
Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm specializing in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You’ll hear Ian, Chris, and Matt discuss:
The geopolitical impact of AI is far-reaching. AI can potentially impact global conflicts, elections, and power dynamics, emphasizing the need for regulatory oversight and ethical considerations to prevent misuse and manipulation.
Ethical concerns are often overlooked or skipped altogether as organizations race to integrate and leverage AI. In an environment where technology changes daily, the lack of human values in the new AI systems runs the risk of bias and other negative consequences.
The evolving regulatory landscape for AI, including initiatives like the EU's Artificial Intelligence Act and the US executive order, underscores the need for proactive policy development. As a result, private businesses will face complex and uncertain regulatory environments as they play a pivotal role in shaping the future of AI adoption.
Different countries approach AI adoption and regulation uniquely, with considerations for economic impact, job displacement, and geopolitical implications, underscoring the diverse responses and challenges in the global AI landscape.
Risk management should play a central role in AI implementation, as there is already a history of compliance failure and cybersecurity risks with the new technology. To circumvent these issues, organizations must prioritize testing, quality control, and privacy considerations.
Despite the risks and pitfalls, AI brings with it productivity gains and innovation opportunities, which encourages a strategic and thoughtful approach to leveraging AI technologies for business growth and development.

Resources:
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
Matt Kelly on LinkedIn
30 min
February 12, 2024Riskology by Infortal Episode 19: Davos & Disinformation
Companies operating in today's global economy face a multitude of risks, including the growing threat of misinformation and disinformation. In this episode of the Riskology Podcast, Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Chris Mason delve into the topic of misinformation and disinformation through the lens of the recent Davos conference. They explore the impact of these risks on businesses, the importance of active defense strategies, and the need for companies to be prepared to counter disinformation campaigns. With the evolving geopolitical landscape, it is crucial for companies to understand and navigate these risks to protect their bottom line and reputation.
Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm that specializes in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You’ll hear Ian and Chris discuss:
Disinformation is the deliberate use of lying to sway a population, while misinformation is inaccurate information that spreads organically. Understanding the distinction is crucial in addressing the intent behind false information and developing appropriate strategies to combat its effects.
Misinformation and disinformation are identified as the number one risk on the World Economic Forum’s list of key fundamental risks to look at over a two-year horizon. This highlights the growing concern over the spread of false information and its potential impact on societies, elections, and businesses worldwide.
Disinformation and misinformation are not going away and will continue to impact media consumers, policymakers, and investors. With the rise of social media and emerging technologies, false information can spread rapidly, leading to confusion, manipulation, and erosion of trust in institutions.
The year of the election is highlighted as a significant time for disinformation and misinformation campaigns, with major elections happening in Mexico, the US, the UK, India, Indonesia, and Russia. The immediate impact of AI tools and the potential for foreign interference make it crucial to address these threats to ensure fair and informed elections.
AI tools have made it easier for anyone to run their own disinformation campaigns, posing a significant threat to elections and public perception. The accessibility of these tools amplifies the potential for manipulation, requiring increased vigilance and countermeasures to protect the integrity of democratic processes.
Disinformation and misinformation can have a massive impact on markets and a business’s reputation, leading to stock price crashes, media scandals, and lawsuits. The ability of false information to shape public perception and consumer behavior highlights the need for companies to actively defend against and counter false narratives.
Companies need to have an active defense against disinformation and misinformation, constantly monitoring and countering false narratives through press releases, investor reports, and social media presence. Proactive measures are necessary to protect a company’s reputation, maintain stakeholder trust, and mitigate potential financial and legal consequences.

Resources:
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
18 min
January 22, 2024Riskology by Infortal Episode 18: Houthi Terrorism, The Red Sea and Global Shipping
When conflicts escalate around the world, supply chains are disrupted, and political power shifts, how can companies stay resilient and manage their risk? In this episode of the Riskology Podcast, Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Chris Mason explore the escalating conflict in the Red Sea and its implications for businesses operating in the region. With shipping routes severely impacted by attacks from the Houthi movement in Yemen, companies face significant disruptions and potential financial losses. Ian and Chris share their insights into how companies can navigate these risks, adapt their supply chains, and develop contingency plans to mitigate the impact of the Red Sea conflict.

Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm that specializes in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You’ll hear Ian and Chris discuss:
The conflict in the Red Sea is severely impacting shipping and logistics operations. Attacks from the Houthi movement have led to disruptions in shipping routes, causing delays and increased costs for companies.
Companies have been forced to reroute their ships around Africa, which leads to significant delays and increased costs for companies. This not only adds financial strain but also creates congestion in alternative ports, further impacting logistics and supply chain operations.
European countries are hesitant to get involved in a coalition to protect international shipping due to their vulnerability to oil flow disruptions and the need to utilize their military strategically, and this lack of coordination poses additional risks for companies relying on the Red Sea route.
The impact of the conflict in the Red Sea extends beyond the Middle East, potentially disrupting global supply chains and causing inflationary pressures on consumer prices. With 98% of maritime shipping between Asia and Europe passing through this route, any disruptions can lead to significant delays, increased costs, and shortages of goods.
Companies, especially those heavily reliant on the Red Sea route, need to develop contingency plans and alternative routes to mitigate the risks and disruptions caused by the conflict. Assessing supply chains, identifying alternative transportation options, and establishing partnerships with reliable logistics providers are crucial steps to ensure business continuity.
Startups and new players are emerging in the logistics industry to address the challenges posed by the conflict, offering alternative overland routes and solutions. These innovative approaches demonstrate the potential for agile and adaptive solutions in times of crisis.
Companies must prioritize intelligence gathering, due diligence, and boots-on-the-ground experience to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape and identify reliable partners in affected regions. Understanding the political dynamics, assessing risks, and conducting thorough background checks on potential collaborators are essential for mitigating risks and ensuring compliance with regulations.
While the conflict in the Red Sea poses significant challenges, it also opens up opportunities for innovative companies to fill gaps in the market. By embracing dynamic assessment, diversifying supply chains, and exploring new partnerships, businesses can position themselves for success in a rapidly changing global landscape.

Resources:
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
26 min
January 08, 2024Riskology by Infortal Episode 17: Geopolitical Risk at The Board Level
How can companies effectively manage geopolitical risk and integrate it into their business strategies? In this episode of Riskology, Dr. Andrea Bonime-Blanc joins the discussion to explore the importance of understanding the international geopolitical risk landscape. From the role of the board and management in risk governance to the need for practical translation of theoretical discussions, Dr. Bonime-Blanc provides valuable insights on navigating the turbulent and changing geopolitical landscape. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of how geopolitical risk can impact your business and how to turn risk into opportunity.
Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigation firm that specializes in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.
You'll hear Chris, Ian, and Andrea discuss:
Geopolitical tectonic shifts: The world is experiencing significant changes in geopolitical dynamics, such as the rivalry between China and the US, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the focus on the Middle East.
Impact of generative AI: The development of generative AI technology poses risks, particularly in the hands of criminals, terrorists, and rogue nations who can use it asymmetrically to cause harm.
Integration of geopolitical risk into business strategy: Companies need to move beyond theoretical discussions and actively integrate geopolitical risk into their risk management frameworks and business strategies.
Cultural differences in approaching geopolitical risk: European-based multinationals tend to be more sensitized to geopolitical risks due to stricter regulations, while US-based multinationals often have a laissez-faire attitude and prioritize market-friendly approaches.
National security and corporate compliance: The Department of Justice recognizes that companies play a role in national security and is increasing its focus on enforcing corporate compliance through the National Security Division.
Role of general counsel in managing geopolitical risk: In smaller businesses without a general counsel, the CEO, CFO, or COO should take responsibility for understanding and addressing geopolitical risks, seeking external expertise when needed.
Link between geopolitical risk and opportunity: Understanding geopolitical risks allows companies to identify opportunities for value creation, better supply chains, and selecting partners and customers in different markets.
Evolving compliance programs: Compliance programs need to adapt to address the complex geopolitical risks of today, with dynamic assessments that consider changing global conditions rather than static annual analyses.

KEY QUOTES:
"There's a little bit of that hubris and a little bit of that ultra-market-friendly attitude that has succeeded. And we don't have privacy laws federally in this country, and there's a reason for that: the business lobby and other interests have made sure that we don't go there." - Andrea Bonime-Blanc
"The danger of national security issues, IP theft, and intelligence gathering has always been there because we're an open market economy and anyone and their brother can come here, and if they happen to be a spy or a plant from another government, we don't find out, maybe ever." - Andrea Bonime-Blanc
"Good risk management translates into good opportunity management and opportunity value creation." - Andrea Bonime-Blanc

Resources:
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
Dr Andrea Bonime-Blanc on LinkedIn
GEC Risk Advisory
31 min
December 26, 2023Riskology by Infortal Episode 16: Argentina + Election Economics
How can companies navigate the evolving geopolitical risk landscape and leverage opportunities in emerging markets? In this episode of Riskology by Infortal Worldwide, Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Chris Mason discuss the recent election of Presidente Milei in Argentina and its potential impact on the international stage. They explore the implications of Argentina's commitment to lean towards the US dollar and the opportunities it may present for US firms. As companies face increasing geopolitical risks, understanding the political and economic dynamics of different regions becomes crucial for effective risk management and strategic decision-making.

Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigation firm that specializes in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You'll hear Chris and Ian discuss:
Argentina's election of a libertarian president is a break from its economic and political past. The election of Presidente Milei represents a new direction for Argentina and a departure from traditional mainstream parties.
The new president is implementing shock therapy measures to tackle inflation and kickstart economic growth. Milei is taking a two-pronged approach to address inflation. Firstly, he is changing the monetary policy by devaluing the currency, which incentivizes investors and businesses to switch to the US dollar. Secondly, he is implementing fiscal spending cuts and reducing corruption to eliminate inflationary pressures and reduce demand.
The devaluation of the currency and fiscal spending cuts are aimed at reducing inflationary pressures. By devaluing the currency and encouraging the use of the US dollar, Milei hopes to create a more stable economic environment. Additionally, his efforts to cut corruption and reduce fiscal spending aim to eliminate inflationary drivers and reduce demand, ultimately stabilizing the economy.
Argentina's commitment to leaning towards the US dollar could be significant for US firms in the competition for a new world currency. As other countries, particularly China, seek to influence the establishment of a new world currency, Argentina's commitment to the US dollar is a significant development. This commitment could serve as a poker chip on the international stage, potentially influencing policies and access to natural resources.
The election in Argentina could open up opportunities for US firms in terms of exports, investment, and reshoring/nearshoring. The stabilization of Argentina's economy and its commitment to the US dollar could create favorable conditions for US businesses; goods may become cheaper, providing better export opportunities.
Despite Argentina's limited financial capacity to support Ukraine, Zelensky's presence at Milei’s inauguration suggests that the region, including Latin America, may have a greater influence on global events and conflicts.
The impact of elections on international conflicts, commerce, and interest rates can indirectly affect US businesses. Elections around the world, including the US election in 2024, can have far-reaching impacts on various aspects of the global economy.
Compliance programs need to evolve to address complex geopolitical risks and should include dynamic assessment as global conditions change. This is crucial for businesses to effectively manage and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical factors such as elections, sanctions, and regulations.

Resources
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
20 min
December 18, 2023Riskology by Infortal Episode 15: National Security and Corporate Compliance
Corruption, sanctions, and political instability: these geopolitical events have far-reaching consequences for businesses. In this episode of Riskology, Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Chris Mason, joined by special guest Tom Fox, discuss the recent DOJ guidance on compliance priorities. They offer tips to help businesses identify and mitigate potential vulnerabilities that can affect a company’s bottom line and reputation and safeguard their operations from unforeseen geopolitical challenges.

Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm that specializes in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company’s focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You'll hear Chris, Ian, and Tom discuss:
American businesses need to understand the implications of their deals in Latin America, East Asia, and other regions, as legal and criminal risks are involved.
In its latest announcements, the Department of Justice is emphasizing the importance of corporate compliance and is planning to look at corporate crime through the lens of national security.
While it brings an additional level of scrutiny for business, compliance professionals welcome the announcement as it highlights the connection between international corruption and national security.
The DOJ's focus on national security means that corporate compliance groups may receive more resources and funding to enable them to understand the international geopolitical risk landscape and work on solving compliance issues before they happen.
Recent scandals in South America highlight why companies with global supply chains, or those that are considering relocating, must be aware of the bribery and corruption risks present in different countries.
Argentina has dealt with a number of issues over the past 150 years, and the country’s recent election has created uncertainty about the country's economic future, so companies should take note and carefully assess the risks associated with doing business there.
When the DOJ dedicates more resources to an area, they increase their enforcement in it, so companies need to know who they’re doing business with, how their supply chain functions, and where their products end up in the world.
Traditional due diligence methods will not be enough in this new environment, so they’ll need their departments to develop new resiliency skills to mitigate risk and fallout when the geopolitical landscape changes.
Managing geopolitical risk can seem daunting, but it’s much simpler than people think. Unlike the government, businesses have the ability to move quickly and course-correct more accurately, and the ability to do that will give companies an advantage over their competition on the world stage.

Resources:

Infortal Worldwide

Email

Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
Tom Fox
Instagram
Facebook
YouTube
Twitter
LinkedIn
23 min
November 27, 2023Riskology by Infortal Episode 14: International Mergers & Acquisitions
Geopolitics and business are inextricably linked. In this episode of Riskology by Infortal, Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Chris Mason explore how geopolitical risk analysis should be an integral part of mergers and acquisitions due diligence to uncover hidden risks and opportunities. They also discuss the emerging business activity in Cuba and its geopolitical implications.

Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm specializing in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You’ll hear Chris and Ian discuss:
Cuba is an emerging market M&A opportunity. There is growing entrepreneurial activity and cross-industry demand for business with the U.S.
However, the politics, military, and security dynamics around Cuba pose risks with China’s deepening involvement.
Cuba has significant untapped potential to again become an economic and financial hub, given its strategic geographic location.
When looking for investment opportunities, it's important to assess geopolitical risks to understand potential political issues that could impact the business environment before and after a deal.
To ensure a thorough examination of potential risks, checklists for operational due diligence should include an analysis of geopolitical factors. This helps identify dependencies and vulnerabilities in the supply chain, allowing for proactive risk mitigation.
Gathering intelligence from local sources at different stages of a deal provides insights into the actual state of affairs, business practices, and risks related to the target firm, industry, and operating environment.
Strengthen decision-making by obtaining verified information, establishing structured M&A due diligence processes, and documenting geopolitical risk analysis for your teams.
Detect issues early and voluntarily report them to regulators to limit liabilities. The Saffron SA case in China exemplifies the benefits of FCPA due diligence in this regard.
With fluctuations in global supply chains, M&A decisions should be informed by geopolitical considerations, influencing reshoring and nearshoring choices as localization trends gain momentum. This presents both opportunities and the need for thorough due diligence.

Resources
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
23 min
November 13, 2023Riskology by Infortal Episode 13: Deputy AG Lisa Monaco’s Announcement at SCCE
How can companies navigate the evolving compliance landscape and new risks posed by geopolitical events? Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Chris Mason discuss the recent DOJ guidance on compliance priorities and tips for managing risk. Businesses face a growing array of geopolitical risks, such as sanctions regimes, political instability, and supply chain disruptions. These risks can have a significant impact on a company's bottom line, reputation, and overall operations. To effectively mitigate these risks, companies must adapt their compliance programs and develop a comprehensive understanding of the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm that specializes in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You’ll hear Chris and Ian discuss:
The DOJ is making enforcement of corporate compliance a top priority, especially relating to national security. They are hiring 25 additional prosecutors specifically for this purpose.
Compliance programs must evolve to address today's complex geopolitical risks. Programs can't be static or analyzed just annually. There must be a dynamic assessment as global conditions change.
Sanctions and regulations have cascading impacts on markets and business operations in ways that may not seem directly related. A thorough analysis of geopolitical risks is required.
Compliance failures at large, sophisticated companies demonstrate the need for effective geopolitical risk management. Significant reputational damage can occur.
Ensure executive compensation packages properly incentivize compliance-minded behavior. Penalties should exist for compliance failures.
New DOJ Safe Harbor policy formalizes practices for self-disclosing issues found during mergers and acquisitions.
For M&A, extensive due diligence should begin on day one of deal consideration. The analysis must include geopolitical risks like bribery and FCPA violations.
Due diligence should continue for 6 months after an acquisition closes to uncover hidden risks. Issues should be self-disclosed to the DOJ.
Compliance must permeate entire organizations. New expertise in geopolitical risk may need to be developed across legal, marketing, and other departments.
Corporate compliance plays a role in national security by avoiding risks like products being misused by terrorists or transactions violating sanctions.

Resources
Infortal Worldwide
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
25 min

About Riskology by Infortal

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Welcome to the Riskology podcast. Companies operating in today’s global economy really need to get an understanding of the international geopolitical risk landscape. At Infortal Worldwide we work with…

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Riskology by Infortal

Riskology by Infortal episodes

About Riskology by Infortal