Riskology by Infortal

By Thomas FoxBusiness Management

Riskology by Infortal episodes

October 30, 2023Riskology by Infortal Episode 12: Israel and The Hamas War
The rapidly changing landscape of the Middle East has profound implications for businesses in the region. In this episode of Riskology by Infortal, Chris Mason and Dr. Ian Oxnevad explore the geopolitical shifts and emerging power dynamics that are creating a new Eurasian battleground. They emphasize the need to understand this broader context, moving beyond the traditional Israeli-Palestinian lens to explore the multifaceted relationships shaping the region. The ongoing conflict unravels as a manifestation of this complex geopolitical puzzle.
Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm specializing in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company focuses on various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.
You’ll hear Chris and Ian discuss:
The traditional view of the Middle East has evolved significantly over the past decade, moving beyond Western counterterrorism narratives. The dynamics now involve a broader struggle for control in Eurasia, with China, India, and Russia asserting their influence.
The significance of the Abraham Accords: there is a paradigm shift where Sunni Arab nations in the Persian Gulf view Israel not only as part of the Middle East but also as crucial for future prosperity.
The emergence of higher-tech Sunni Arab nations aligning with Israel poses a threat to groups like Hamas and indirectly challenges initiatives such as China's Belt and Road.
Israel's strategy in dealing with Gaza could influence the magnitude of the conflict. The potential involvement of Iran and the risk of destabilization in the region are examined.
Despite the focus on advanced technology, the conflict witnesses the use of low-tech tactics by groups like Hamas.
Cryptocurrency may be used by groups like Hamas to finance terrorism. Its liquidity and relative untraceability make it an efficient tool for terrorists to move value quickly.
Ian highlights the challenge of tracking funds that can originate from legal sources like humanitarian aid or business activities.
Terrorist organizations have used different money laundering methods over time, including unconventional methods such as toys. Cryptocurrency is the modern iteration of money laundering, offering unique advantages like holding value and quick, untraceable transactions.
Chris highlights the importance of robust compliance programs for financial institutions facilitating fund transfers.
Ian outlines various business risks resulting from the conflict, including:
Expanded counterterrorism financing regulations are anticipated.
Civil suits may arise under counterterrorism financing laws, making financial institutions liable.
Consumer boycotts and sanctions on actors like Hamas and Hezbollah are expected.
Humanitarian sides of organizations may face sanctions.
Heightened insurance and security costs.
Potential global economic impacts may include:
Inflationary pressures are expected due to conflict demands, humanitarian assistance, and rebuilding costs.
Supply chain disruptions are likely, especially if key infrastructures like the Suez Canal or Straits of Hormuz are affected.
Oil production disruptions in the Middle East could lead to a global rise in oil prices, impacting businesses globally.
As such, businesses must plan strategically by ramping up security costs and intelligence spending.

Resources
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
23 min
October 09, 2023Riskology by Infortal Episode 11: The New Normal - Geopolitical Risks Reshaping Global Business
In this inaugural episode of Riskology by Infortal, hosts Chris Mason, Candice Tal and Dr. Ian Oxnevad discuss their approach to the podcast, and share a glimpse into the diverse range of topics they will be delving into. Riskology blends business, geopolitics, and intelligence to demystify the 21st century economic world and explore how geopolitical risk directly impacts your bottom line.

Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm that specializes in helping businesses navigate complex risk landscapes. The company's focus extends to various areas, including economics, politics, and geopolitical risk. By delving into these interconnected realms, Infortal Worldwide aims to provide clients with comprehensive insights that empower them to make informed decisions, especially in critical areas such as mergers and acquisitions, private equity investments, and other strategic moves.

You’ll hear Candice, Chris and Ian discuss:
Infortal Worldwide is a global risk management and investigations firm with a strong 38-year track record. The firm operates in 160 countries around the world, serving a diverse range of industry sectors, with a primary focus on large companies, upper-middle-market entities, and large-cap corporations.
In addition to geopolitical risk, Infortal specializes in providing solutions to real-world problems faced by clients. Their expertise encompasses issues such as sanctions risk, potential violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), identifying bad actors, and addressing reputational damage that can expose companies to significant risks.
Infortal helps companies mitigate global risk exposures, such as financial losses, reputational damage, and legal liability. They provide a comprehensive risk management solution with tools and services to identify, assess, and manage risks.
The risk environment encompasses micro risks at the individual and business level, as well as macro risks at the country and regional level. The focus is on understanding immediate risk exposure from individuals and businesses, up to broader country-level and regional risks.
Infortal recognized the significant challenges that companies face when engaging with international partners, suppliers, and stakeholders. The company aims to address the gap in discussions around geopolitical risk and provide education on the multifaceted challenges that businesses face today.
Larger companies often face challenges in disseminating key information about geopolitical risks effectively. Information tends to become siloed within risk teams, making it difficult for decision-makers to access and act upon relevant intelligence. To unlock the power of geopolitical risk analysis, it is necessary to break down information silos and ensure that critical insights reach key decision-makers.

Resources
Infortal Worldwide
Email
Candice Tal on LinkedIn | Twitter
Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Chris Mason on LinkedIn
29 min
September 15, 2023Infortal on Global Risk Outlook: Part 5-Dr. Ian Oxnevad on Asia
"If war takes place and the US wins, your property and your investments in China are still going to be confiscated, seized. If you try to keep your investments in China and there's a war and the US loses, then you could wind up losing property rights as the result of instability here, depending on how the war plays out," says Dr. Ian Oxnevad on the final installment of the Riskology special series. He and Tom discuss China's political landscape and its impact on global business.

Dr. Ian Oxnevad is the Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortal Worldwide, with a background in political science and national security studies. He is also the host of The Riskology Podcast.

You’ll hear Ian and Tom discuss:
Risks associated with China in terms of trade, political conflict and competition, as well as China's robust response to COVID-19. Ian also discusses the impact COVID-19 had on China's public health and its policies.
The current tensions between China and Taiwan and the possibility of war.
Looking towards India as an alternative source of investment due to longer term macroeconomic and geopolitical trends, as well as a larger domestic market with fewer political issues compared to China. Ian also touches on India's aviation market and the opportunities and potential for US companies.
India as a better possibility for companies wishing to relocate from China as it has the ability to defend itself and maintain supply chains should China go to war. India also has experience with democratic governance so it is less susceptible to authoritarianism.
US companies should consider nearshoring or reshoring from China to mitigate risks and the US government could provide tax incentives, grants, and other incentives to facilitate reshoring efforts.

Resources
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
14 min
September 14, 2023Infortal on Global Risk Outlook: Part 4-Dr. Ian Oxnevad on Europe
"What you're seeing is a need for greater risk analysis at the national level and an understanding of how that pertains to the European level writ large and how that's going to affect your opportunities and your risks," says returning guest Dr. Ian Oxnevad on this installment of the Riskology special series. In this episode, he and Tom discuss geopolitical risks and opportunities in Europe, as it pertains to political and economic instability, banking crises and regulatory challenges.

Dr. Ian Oxnevad is the Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortal Worldwide, with a background in political science and national security studies. He is also the host of The Riskology Podcast.

You’ll hear Ian and Tom discuss:
The need for greater risk analysis at both the national and European level.
The economic uncertainty caused by geopolitical risks and the potential increase of corruption.
Europe's constant internal stressors, as well as external crises and pressures. The Russia-Ukraine war has put a strain on international trade and geopolitical relations by way of sanctions.
The opportunities for US companies, specifically energy companies to supply energy to Europe in the midst of its trade shortage.
US companies also need to understand the differences between the Euro and the US dollar, as well as the possibility of the US dollar weakening and the Euro being a stronger currency, and what that can mean for US companies doing business in Europe.
The various regulatory risks for US companies operating in Europe, including GDPR and ESG, especially data protection and data privacy laws.
While the global fiscal policy between the US, Europe and the UK is collaborative, its effectiveness is still uncertain. The banking crisis is worsening and higher interest rates to combat inflation isn't helping to curb it.
COVID-19's impact on international trade and the challenges and shortages it has made for Europe and the US.

Resources
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
14 min
September 13, 2023Infortal on Global Risk Outlook: Part 3 - Dr. Ian Oxnevad on Russia and Ukraine
"If you're fighting off a major world power, corruption will not be on your plate. You're going to be looking at trying to keep domestic production up and national solidarity at high levels," says Dr. Ian Oxnevad, returning guest on this installment of the Riskology special series. Dr. Ian Oxnevad and Tom discuss the geopolitical risk landscape between Russia and Ukraine.
Dr. Ian Oxnevad is the Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortal Worldwide, with a background in political science and national security studies. He is also the host of The Riskology Podcast.
You’ll hear Ian and Tom discuss:
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the implications counteroffensive measures may have on both countries.
Companies may face risks in doing business with Russia as they violate sanctions. Ian also discusses the proxy war between Russia and the West and between China and the West.
The shrinking European economy is due to higher energy costs and the impact of food supplies in other parts of the world.
The risks of corruption in Ukraine.
How China is playing a role in filling the void left by Western investment and the need for due diligence in the post-war business landscape
There is potential for a "rush" of people and companies looking to capitalize on the efforts to rebuild Ukraine. This can present a potential risk in terms of corruption for Ukraine.
Resources:
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
13 min
September 12, 2023Infortal on Global Risk Outlook: Part 2 - Dr. Ian Oxnevad on Latin America
“From a due diligence and geopolitical risk intelligence standpoint, Mexico and Latin America, in general, don’t get enough attention because a lot of people in the political world view Latin America as off to the sidelines from major events around the world, but it’s anything but,” says Dr. Ian Oxnevad, returning guest on this installment of the Geopolitical Risk Series of Riskology. He and Tom discuss in this episode the risk landscape of Latin America and how companies can navigate it.
Dr. Ian Oxnevad is the Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortal Worldwide, with a background in political science and national security studies. He is also the host of The Riskology Podcast.
You’ll hear Ian and Tom discuss:
The rise of authoritarianism, corruption, and a greater presence of China in Latin America post-2020. Brazil, in particular, is China’s largest trading partner, and they’re not trading with the US dollar but instead the Chinese yuan. Despite this, Brazil is unstable domestically.
The risks of nationalization and crime dynamics in Mexico, as well as similar risks in Central America.
Venezuela’s inability in the foreseeable future to be any sort of trading partner for the US is due to its lack of legitimacy.
The potential of Cuba is to become the financial stronghold of Latin America if it can achieve economic reform and attract investment.
Chile’s pro-business laws make it attractive to business trade, and it is the safest, but there are increasing pushes for authoritarianism.

Resources:
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
13 min
September 11, 2023Infortal on Global Risk Outlook: Part 1 - Dr. Ian Oxnevad on Middle East and Africa
“The dollar’s power, like any currency’s power, is tied to its ability to hold value and people’s interests in actually holding it,” says Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortal Worldwide and Tom Fox’s guest on this Riskology Special Series. Ian and Tom discuss the current geopolitics of trade within the Middle East, the Abraham Accords, and how these things may affect businesses within the US looking to expand.
Dr. Ian Oxnevad is the Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortel Worldwide, with a background in political science and national security studies. He is also the host of The Riskology Podcast.
You’ll hear Ian and Tom discuss:
Dr. Ian Oxnevad is the Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortal Worldwide, with a political science and national security studies background. He is also the host of The Riskology Podcast.
You’ll hear Ian and Tom discuss:
The changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East since 2020, and the impact of the Abraham Accords on opportunities in the high-tech and water technology sectors.
The dominance of the US dollar as a go-to currency within the Middle East.
Ian talks about the implications and advantages of Saudi Arabia and Middle Eastern crude oil being tied to the US dollar.
While the US dollar being the benchmark currency for crude is good for the US, it has the potential to create currency crisis risks and monetary instability.
The possible trade sanctions and risks for countries doing business within Saudi Arabia and its environs.
Tom and Ian stress the importance of conducting good due diligence and geopolitical risk intelligence in order to combat these risks. Consider entering markets with favorable exchange rates, and holding and transacting in other currencies based on your industry.

Resources
Dr. Ian Oxnevad on LinkedIn
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
15 min
August 25, 2023Infortal on Risk Intelligence Part 5: Supply Chain Intelligence with Dr. Ian Oxnevad
In the final part of this week’s five-part special, Tom Fox discusses supply chain risks with Dr. Ian Oxnevad. He talks about the supply chain from a geopolitical risk perspective and the various steps companies can take to prepare themselves against those risks.

Dr. Ian Oxnevad is a political scientist and economist at Infortal Worldwide, a global risk firm that provides due diligence services to support key investment decision making. Infortal Worldwide supports a lot of private equity investment, mergers, and acquisitions, as well as any type of risk scenario a business may face.
Supply chain intelligence must first begin with a risk analysis. Companies must determine their exposure to certain geopolitical risks, such as political unrest, social unrest, or war.
The way in which a company de-risks its supply chain depends on which risk is the largest. "Are you looking at closing the distance and reducing logistical costs between a customer and a company?" Ian asks. If your company is considering alternatives to its current supply chain system, or systems outside of its current country, it needs to consider things like corruption, terrorism, organized crime, and ESG.
Ian goes through some of the steps Infortal takes when counseling companies through de-risking. He describes what it takes to create a solid supply chain risk response plan.
The intelligence process gives companies legal guidance and any other relevant information they need for making the right decisions while mitigating as much risk as possible.

KEY QUOTE
" Supply chain intelligence is key to understanding and avoiding hidden supply chain risks.”- Dr. Ian Oxnevad

Resources
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
13 min
August 24, 2023Infortal on Risk Intelligence Part 4: Sanctions Intelligence with Chris Mason
This is part 4 of a special 5-part series featuring Infortal Worldwide. Tom Fox and Chris Mason discuss sanctions intelligence. Chris talks about regulation changes with respect to sanctions, their impact on the business community, and reputational risk.

Chris Mason is with Infortal Worldwide, a global risk firm that provides due diligence services to support key investment decision making. Infortal Worldwide supports a lot of private equity investment, mergers, and acquisitions, as well as any type of risk scenario a business may face.
With sanctions, assessing your exposure and taking a holistic view of your business is important. Look at who you're doing business with, your partners, your client, and your customer base, and then ensure that you have compliance documents that map out what your business program looks like.
Navigating the ever-changing international sanctions regimes starts with having a documented, adaptable plan for everyone on your company's team.
Regulations task forces are looking at companies in this new age of anti-corruption, so having a solid compliance program is crucial.
Reputation is closely tied to a company's value: if one decreases, so will the other. Violating sanctions laws can taint a company’s image in the eyes of the public. "Circling back to what we've been discussing, taking the steps to really understand your risk exposure, setting up a plan that you can put in place that's easy for your team to follow, can definitely help you avoid these types of reputational risks and regulatory problems," Chris remarks.

KEY QUOTE
" Sanctions risk management should now be a key consideration for companies of all sizes.”- Chris Mason

Resources
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
9 min
August 23, 2023Infortal on Risk Intelligence Part 3: Corruption Intelligence with Chris Mason
In part 3 of this week’s five-part special, Tom Fox discusses corruption intelligence with Chris Mason. Chris returns to talk about how organizations can mitigate corruption within their corporate environments and the steps they can take to ensure they comply with regulations.
Chris Mason is with Infortal Worldwide, a global risk firm that provides due diligence services to support key investment decision making. Infortal Worldwide supports a lot of private equity investment, mergers, and acquisitions, as well as any type of risk scenario a business may face.
Combating corruption within an organization starts with setting the right cultural tone for the organization. Establishing your organization's culture and how it will navigate anti-corruption regulations is critical to avoiding illegal, and costly, behavior.
To conduct business overseas successfully, you must understand the culture of the country you wish to do business with. "Without really taking a holistic view of what's going on on the ground level, you're not going to truly understand what the business culture is that you're jumping into," Chris says.
A key to due diligence is understanding who you're doing business with. You need to take a deeper dive to truly understand who you are partnering with overseas. Basic checks aren't enough. You need to know what's happening on the ground level.
It is important to utilize local resources when researching international markets to become familiar with the local customs and business culture. This will be critical for your team to be able to interpret any market intelligence collected.

KEY QUOTE
“Understanding who you partner with overseas is key to avoiding unnecessary corruption risks." - Chris Mason

Resources
Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999
12 min

About Riskology by Infortal

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Welcome to the Riskology podcast. Companies operating in today’s global economy really need to get an understanding of the international geopolitical risk landscape. At Infortal Worldwide we work with…

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Riskology by Infortal

Riskology by Infortal episodes

About Riskology by Infortal