Rob Breakenridge Show

In the aftermath of the referendum on Alberta’s future in Canada, Premier Danielle Smith has urged her party to unite and focus on winning next year’s election. But to what extent are the UCP hoping that a more favourable electoral map can help them in their quest for victory?

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we’ll take a closer look at the controversy around the province’s new electoral boundary report, which stemmed from the government’s unprecedented rejection of the changes proposed by the independent Electoral Boundaries Commission.

We’re joined by University of Alberta political science professor Dr. Jared Wesley, who has been critical of the government’s handling of this issue and it’s decision to upend a longstanding, independent process for determining electoral boundaries. With this proposed re-drawing - including an increase in hybrid urban-rural ridings - does this meet the standard of what would be considered ‘gerrymandering?” Is the UCP gaining an advantage here - and was that the goal?

The political debate is far from over, and the legal battle could be about to begin,

Plus, we’ll re-cap the fallout from the U.S. midterm elections, where some rather blatant attempts at gerrymandering failed to stop a massive win by Democrats. With Republicans losing both the House and the Senate, could this rebuke from American voters lead to a change in the president’s tariff and trade policies toward Canada?

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show: the latest on whether the American midterm elections could bring Canada and the U.S. closer to a trade deal - and why it’s so crucial to find a resolution.

We’ll re-cap what both Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump had to say this week, amid reports of some potential progress on the trade front.

We’re joined this week by Joseph Steinberg, professor of economics at the University of Toronto and senior fellow at the Montreal Economic Institute. Steinberg’s latest report for the MEI takes a closer look at U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and concludes that the result has been a price shock, not an industrial revival.

We’ll look at why these tariffs have created such significant challenges for various industries, and the potential consequences of Canadian retaliatory measures. Steinberg also explains why a return to the era of tariff-free trade may no longer be realistic, which raises important questions for how Canada’s response moving forward.

After months of debate, Albertans have delivered a decisive verdict on the province’s future, with just over three-quarters of voters rejecting separation and choosing to remain a part of Canada. It’s a resounding defeat for the Alberta separatist movement, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the movement is finished.

In this episode of The Rob Breakenridge Show, we take a closer look at the results and the political fallout - how we got here, whether the issue truly has been put to rest, and what this all means for Premier Danielle Smith and the governing United Conservative Party.

Our guest this week is Tyler Dawson, who’s an editor at The Globe and Mail and is author of “The Republic of Alberta: An Idea That Won’t Go Away.” We’ll get his thoughts on the impact this defeat will have on the separatist movement and how this all turned out so badly for them. Dawson isn’t convinced that the movement is going to disappear, and they could still cause political headaches for Smith and the UCP.

Plus, more on how the fallout from the referendum could impact next year’s election, and what it all means for Alberta’s relationship with Ottawa. The Alberta-Ottawa pipeline MOU and other policy changes surely helped the cause for Canada, but could the results from the other nine referendum questions put that relationship to the test?

Watch/listen:

YouTube:

Apple Podcasts:

Spotify:

The referendum on Alberta’s future is just days away - what should we expect on October 19th, and what comes after?

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we’re joined by political columnist Lorne Gunter for an in-depth discussion on how the question of separation made its way to the ballot box and the potential political fallout once those ballots are counted.

Gunter argues that even if separatists fall well short of winning, the movement could still remain a disruptive force in Alberta politics. As much as separatist leaders have been a liability to their own cause, they remain a force within the UCP - although the results Monday will help determine just how potent a force they will be moving forward, and how likely it is that they’ll be able to oust Smith as leader.

We’ll also look at whether Mark Carney’s approach to energy and pipelines has lowered the temperature in Alberta and whether Smith’s nine other referendum questions could lead to further changes in the relationship with Ottawa.

The separatist Parti Québécois are back in power in Quebec — just as Albertans are set to vote on their own province’s future within Canada. In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we’re joined by Globe & Mail columnist Andrew Coyne for a closer look at the results in Quebec, the upcoming Alberta referendum, and what it all means for Canada.

We start with a conversation about what happened in Quebec, where the PQ managed to form a minority government with just 28 per cent of the vote. While that suggests that, for now, support for Quebec independence remains low, Coyne warns against complacency, pointing to potential flashpoints over immigration, secularism and the constitution.

We’ll then turn our attention to what’s happening in Alberta and what we might expect to see on October 19th. We’ll get Coyne’s thoughts on the reports of controversial outreach by Alberta separatists to U.S. officials, the political impact of Donald Trump on Canadian unity, and the potential consequences of this referendum.

In this episode, a closer look at this week’s announcement regarding the proposed new west coast pipeline (now known as Pacific Link) - the potential impact this project could have, and whether it symbolizes a shift in Canada’s approach to building major projects and attracting investment.

Up first, a conversation with Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. We’ll get the Chamber’s reaction to Ottawa’s move to declare the proposed Pacific Link pipeline as being in the national interest. We’ll also look ahead to the October 19th referendum, and why the business community is worried about the potential for uncertainty around Alberta’s future. The Chamber has released a new report conducted by noted economist Trevor Tombe that outlines the potential consequences of Alberta leaving Canada: lost jobs, reduced investment and GDP, major fiscal challenges, and the prospect of higher taxes or deep cuts to public services.

Plus, we’re joined by David Knight Legg, chairman of Elements Capital, former CEO of Invest Alberta, and former principal advisor to Alberta’s premier. We’ll get his take on the significance of the pipeline announcement and what appears to be a growing political consensus around the value and importance of energy production and energy infrastructure. More broadly, we’ll also examine whether finally turning a corner on investment, economic growth, and regulatory certainty. We’ve certainly seen some steps in this direction, but are these initiatives enough to restore confidence in the Canadian economy?

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show: The loss of a supposedly safe UCP riding is a warning sign for Alberta’s governing party, and an indicator of how the government’s referendum strategy is casting a huge shadow on Alberta politics.

With just over a month to go before the vote on Alberta’s future in Canada, the Alberta NDP pulled off a significant upset by prevailing in Monday’s byelection in the riding of Calgary-Shaw.

We’re joined this week by longtime conservative strategist and Lead Not Leave co-founder Ken Boessenkool for a closer look at how the UCP managed to blow this byelection and what it tells us about the state of Alberta’s conservative movement and the political volatility of the upcoming referendum.

Boessenkool argues that Danielle Smith has created a difficult position for herself by allowing separatist politics to dominate Alberta’s political agenda. Instead, Boessenkool makes the case that a conservative government should be focused on taxes, investment, economic growth and making Alberta more competitive — not on possibly leaving Canada. Now, though, the focus must be on winning that referendum.

We’ll also have more details on the new report just released by the Alberta government that examines the significant costs of of separation.

Plus, former prime minister Stephen Harper is emerging as an important voice in the Canada’s economic future and the debate over Alberta’s place in Confederation. We’ll hear what he had to say this week.

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, a closer look at the two very consequential issues that loom large over both Alberta and the rest of Canada.

First up, we’re joined by Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta, as we discuss their new “Choose Canada” campaign ahead of the pivotal October 19 referendum. While conceding that Alberta has legitimate grievances with Ottawa, Legge argues that separation would introduce an enormous amount of uncertainty and risk. The campaign also emphasizes that rejecting separation does not equate to an endorsement of Canada’s status quo. We’ll also get his thoughts on the concern and potential impact of the escalating trade war between Canada and the United States.

Plus, are Canada’s counter-tariffs the right response to Donald Trump’s trade war? We’ll hear from Vincent Geloso, senior economist with the Montreal Economic Institute, who makes the case that retaliatory tariffs simply impose additional costs on Canadian businesses and consumers — and risk entrenching protectionist policies long after the current dispute is over.

Geloso’s latest study looks back to the 1930s, when Canada responded aggressively to U.S. protectionism during the Great Depression, which ultimately exacerbated an already bad situation. We’ll look at how Canada can best navigate increasingly hostile U.S. trade policy and how free trade between the two countries got so off course.

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, a closer look at the debate around Alberta’s future with now less than two months to go before a very consequential October 19th referendum.

We’re joined by Monte Solberg, one of the founders of the group Vote to Stay - Monte, of course, was a cabinet minister under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and a long time Conservatives / Canadian Alliance / Reform M.P. for Southern Alberta.

We’ll find out how and why the group Vote to Stay - which includes other prominent conservatives such as Jason Kenney and Travis Toews - came together in the first place and why the vote on separation is too consequential to leave to chance.

Solberg acknowledges that Alberta separatism is being fuelled by frustration and anger, but warns that breaking up the country could come with enormous economic consequences and political uncertainty. He also points to policy breakthroughs between Ottawa and Alberta as evidence that federalism can still work.

We’ll also look at the Trump factor and how American interest and meddling in the referendum could affect the outcome and the aftermath of the vote.

Plus, what about the risk of complacency on Referendum Day - with numerous polls showing the remain-in-Canada option far ahead of support for separation, coupled with the possibility of long lines and delays on October 19th, could that affect voter turnout?

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we’ll take a closer look at how we went from an apparent Canada-US trade deal last week to now what’s being described as a “trade war.”

It’s an ideal opportunity for a conversation with veteran Ottawa political journalist Paul Wells - who, by the way, will be in Calgary on September 28th for the Paul Wells Road Show, featuring - among other guests - Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

We’ll get some insight on what happened last week, why Prime Minister Mark Carney decided there was no point in making any further concessions, and what Canada’s strategy will be now that these new U.S. tariffs have come into effect. Wells also questions, though, whether Canadians have received a sufficiently detailed explanation from their own government about why the negotiations broke down

We’ll examine some of the other political calculations at play here, including the upcoming Quebec election, Ontario’s auto sector, and the Doug Ford factor. There’s also the response from the Conservatives, and some of the apparent divisions that exist within the opposition.

Wells also has some interesting thoughts on Danielle Smith’s approach to the trade conflict and whether she’s been unfairly criticized for a perceived lack of commitment to a so-called “Team Canada” response.