Robert Young - YFS Private Client Market & Economy Audio-Email

Friends,
Happy Liberation Day! 😊
 If you are worried or surprised by the recent repricing of the stock market (Market drop) or believe that the tariffs enacted today (just another set invoked and revised since February) are triggers for the Market decline which has taken the value down approximately10% from the peak achieved in late 2024 – then I have failed you :(
Months ago, based on new data and facts, I 86’d my belief that recession was imminent and would
result in a Market revaluation - and began focusing on the support systems (aka Consumer spending & Corporate revenue) necessary to maintain the ballooning value of the stock market. Although it's been six weeks since I’ve reached out, I have continued to monitor the data and feel that it is time to share an update.
Tariffs and Recession are making headlines.
Done so, I believe, because they make an easy link to one individual or administration and simplifies for people the Principal of Causation - the basic relationship between,” cause and effect”. Today, beginning with the math proving the unhinged valuation of the stock market, followed by data published by the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and debt delinquencies (credit card, auto loans & home loans), with a sprinkling of inflation's true impact on basic pleasures (dining out) - while folding in the actions of corporations (giddily outlined in press releases during the recent earning season) who have decided to drain every drop of blood from there consumer base before the consumers’ inescapable financial death. I have distilled this down to you in the most prosaic terms, “this market will correct and adjust the valuation when consumers/people run out of money.” This lengthy audio provides updated data and facts reminding you of this – it's just math, repricing of the market was inevitable regardless Fortunately, we have stored a great deal of ammunition in your account and will engage when the time is right for you to benefit.
Robert

Friends,
We are riding the AI fandom wave, but unlike others who are buying ""Cause It's the Future, Man...", we have done our research and know exactly why we're in the game and are invested in the Sector/Industry reaping quantifiable profits.

Robert

Friends,
Yes, another client inspired audio-email. 
Ever wonder why I don't suggest initiating an automatic dividend re-investment program? 
Maybe you have, maybe you haven't... 

Like many things, it looks good on paper...

Robert

Friends,
Recently, conversations with clients included the topic of missed opportunities & the halcyon days of fast sales and big profits made from over-priced homes triggered the question, "Is there something in the data we monitor that I could find which might fan the flame of hope for these clients?"

Several days (and a few sleepless nights), using data from the Federal Reserve Banks that track this kind of stuff, sprinkled with inflationary stardust, provided an interesting possibility which I shared with them.
This audio-email was inspired by the thought that others may have the same question and be interested in the implications shown by this factual historical data.

TO BE CLEAR - This is a Hypothesis based on Conjecture! 
The real-estate market is not in my wheelhouse and I'm not Tiresias...

Robert

Friends,

On 19 Dec, during the post-FOMC news conference, Chairman Powell's casual mention of the committee's concern regarding increasing inflationary pressures (aka - rising inflation = rising cost of goods & services) triggered a Market liquidation. 
We'll look at the Fed's own data to investigate.
Keep in mind, when the Consumer runs out of Cash, Markets will re-price as Corporate revenue drops.

Robert

Friends,
Good Morning.
Monday’s (2 Dec) audio-email started with a broad look at the Market & the Economy and closed with updates on our investments.
 
My thoughts on the Market & Economy included coverage of inflation data. Verbally pictorializing the historical path of inflation data since 2020 prompted responses from several clients for clarification and examples/validation. I love these requests - it provides an opportunity to spotlight supporting facts. As an addendum to Monday's presentation, today's audio presents data published by the Federal Reserve which provides detail and clarity to Monday's information portrait I painted. 

Since sleep is a frivolous activity, I recorded this around 2am. As I was wrapping up (what was a very short, fact packed presentation), misfiring synapses spawned an additional chapter covering politics, the economy, the stock market, and thoughts on willful ignorance.  

Hope you find this educational and entertaining.
Robert

Friends,
Not to sound like a fatalist but it's hard to buy the narrative that, "The Economy is Swell & The American Consumer is Flush with Cash and doing just fine!" - especially when Economic data portends an opposite landscape.
I'll share factual data released by both the Federal Government & American Industry - please decide for yourself if we're really in the land of Rainbows & Unicorns that the Financial Headlines & Federal Reserve claim.

I'll close with an update on GrowGeneration (Cannabis re-scheduling update) and cover the newest additions to our investment family.

Robert

Friends,
Regardless of the enthusiasm each new day's headlines bring, my cautious optimism is tempered by the reality of economic news which continues to flash cautionary signals. In fact, two of the most trusted metrics for determining The Market’s under valuation, neutral valuation, or overvaluation (the Schiller P/E & Buffet Indicator) both show a Market that cannot be supported by economic facts.
I review both in today's update.
Despite this, there are two undervalued sectors our calculations have identified.
These are identified in today's update and I'm initiating an opening position for both in all accounts.

Robert

Friends,
This update is "Company / Investment Adjacent". We're not going to cover any updates regarding the Company, rather, we're diving into a specific event which has the potential to stoke rapaciousness in this sector (more importantly - in our little investment).

We'll see...
Robert