Episode 34: on Russian force projection as a negotiation tactic, plus some thoughts on Biden's suggestion of supporting an "insurgency" should Russia cross the border. Read: lunacy.
 
This week's episode opens with some reflections on past work, discussing what we've gotten right and wrong on the conflict so far. Has the narrative at all shifted from the charge of "Russian aggression"? Perhaps not, as far as American mainstream sources go, but NATO expansion and the unintended consequences of the US sanctions regime may be creeping into focus. Russia seems also to have succeeded in sniffing out the fissures in NATO, EU and American resolve, a recent resignation within the German navy symbolizing these weaknesses.

The core of our discussion revolves around Michael Kofman's recent speech to Stanford security geeks: The Russian Military Threat to Ukraine: How Serious? What's behind the "slowness" of Russia's mobilization? How is it using its force posture at the negotiating table?

Our conversion opened on a note of anxiety, but as Mario notes: "There's reason for concern, but it's not the end of the world yet..."

Recorded on 30 January 2022.

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