Zero Hedge has a story out on the woes of what it calls the world’s most bearish hedge fund, called Horseman Global.The fund’s manager presents an investment thesis of sorts, but I think any investor with merely ordinary sophistication can understand why they should stay clear of this or similar funds. This brief podcast (4:07) argues that history amply demonstrates that markets climb higher. A short fund denies the force of persistence in markets and sets up its investors for disaster.
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Commencement speeches tend to emphasize the advantages of grads’ newfound freedom and choices, but neglect to explain how they can access those benefits. This brief podcast (4:44) argues that achieving financial independence provides such a path, and that the discipline and effort required is the sort that really anybody can achieve. We note that Oprah Winfrey framed this well in a commencement address she gave last week.
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With a risk-off flight to safety taking place, the market commentariat is trying to help investors sort out their fixed-income options. Should they focus on high yield or high credit quality? Corporate bonds or Treasuries? This brief podcast (4:16) argues that if you’re going to be allocating a portion of your wealth out of safety concerns, find something that is not at risk of big losses. That would include short-term Treasuries or I Bonds.
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The Society of Actuaries has released a draft of its new mortality tables, reflecting a notable decline in the longevity of male white-collar workers.This brief podcast (5:07) argues that advisory clients are individuals, not statistics. Yet while neither the Centers for Disease Control nor the Society of Actuaries will determine which end date the advisor uses to make retirement income projections, the statistics do capture a certain demographic reality we should all take into consideration.
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Washington is likely soon to see rare bipartisan cooperation reforming the retirement system, proof that people can behave wisely once they have exhausted the alternatives. But while U.S. reforms would improve access for large numbers of Americans outside the framework of standard workplace benefits, proposals in Canada’s 2019 budget could enhance retirees’ incomes. Specifically, the budget proposes two significant innovations for Canadian defined contribution plans: a deferred annuity option and a tontine-style risk pool.
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Dan Silverman, professor of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, is an authority on financial decision making; retirement healthcare; and annuitization. In this interview, Professor Silverman offers three reasons why two similarly situated people would have different financial outcomes. He offers a solution to the classic retirement-saving puzzle – the surprising phenomenon that retirees strongly avoid drawing down their wealth beyond what researchers would expect. His answer to this question also helps to resolve the so-called “annuity puzzle,” wherein consumers shun products that economic theory assumes they would embrace.
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Investors need to keep an eye on the oil market, which has the potential to be even more disruptive than the U.S.-China trade dispute. The 20-month high in oil inventories should be bearish for oil, but prices are rising because the market weighs tension between the U.S. and Iran more than the current glut. While short-term investors should be eyeing Brent crude oil futures, in the long-term, a Middle East conflict could ratchet up the price consumers pay at the pump and damage the global economy.
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You have heard about non-voluntary retirement, but is it something you have made provision for? According to a study of wide scope by ProPublica and The Urban Institute, it appears that somewhere close to 56% of Americans experience this unanticipated job loss after age 50. This means that years assumed to be peak-earning years could end up as years of substantially reduced earnings. Nevertheless, foreknowledge of this trend can help us safeguard our incomes and plan for contingencies.
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If you’re a successful investor, it’s less because of the great stocks you bought than from the patience you learned from your mother. Knowing that our mothers want our success as much as we want it for ourselves can fortify investors with persistence. And it is fit that we acknowledge that our mothers endowed us with an investment whose returns flow in perpetuity.This brief podcast concludes with a suggestion for a meaningful Mother’s Day gift.
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Is the president’s surprise announcement of massively higher duties on Chinese imports the start of a prolonged new trade war or a mere Trumpian negotiating tactic? If it is the latter, crashing stock markets are likely to rocket upward following the signing of a trade accord.This brief podcast suggests five reasons why Sunday’s tweet is likely to be just an extreme tactic, though the risk remains that one or both sides miscalculate how to quickly patch relations.
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