Two Seeking Alpha analyses of the shale-oil industry, one from Kevin Wilson and the other from Andrew Butter, provide much insight and yet, one of them is quite grim and the other sanguine about the opportunities ahead. This podcast (7:19) suggests why it is that commodities investments that tend to long-term returns of zero are so tempting; why the success of such speculation is determined by timing, which is next to impossible to figure out; and what criteria investors should look for in a small, speculative play.
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ElderIndex.org allows users to compare the retirement cost of living among up to four different places at a time. This podcast (6:57) suggests that a change in location is an important tool in the advisor’s retirement-planning tool kit since housing and health costs vary greatly from place to place, and notes the case of a couple whose move reduced costs by about 25 percent.
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As coronavirus fears dissipate, a massive biological calamity taking place right now has gotten next to no attention: the worst locust swarms in 70 years. This podcast (5:00) argues that an extraordinary behavioral quirk in the species known as schistocerca gregaria should be duly noted by investors because of a parallel phenomenon found in “mercator gregaria,” i.e., investors whose behavior changes from harmless to destructive overnight. We saw an example of that this week, and it’s something investors need to proactively defend against.
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Seeking Alpha contributor Ronald Surz’s article on the SECURE Act argues that it will encourage savings; it will encourage misuse of financial calculators; and that these calculators will not model risk properly. This podcast (5:23) suggests that asset managers’ robo-retirement-income tools are brilliant – from a marketing point of view – but are woefully inadequate models on which to base a retirement income plan.
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Positioning for the new year and decade is worthwhile, but not before taking a step back and establishing a framework for making good decisions. This podcast (4:38) argues that key decisions about asset allocation and whether and from whom to seek advice precede and override the matters investors generally obsess about, such as which stock to buy.
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A comprehensive study by the London-based International Longevity Centre found that receivers of financial advice fared substantially better than the unadvised. This podcast (4:37) suggests that the public has a lot of clarity about the cost of advice, but is deficient in its knowledge of the value of advice, something for which comprehensive U.S. research is needed, but also something that advisors can do a better job of communicating.
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An article on Prohibition on TheConversation.com, having nothing to do with investments per se, got me thinking about markets and mean reversion. This podcast (6:00) argues that tendencies with a solid human or historical basis reassert themselves, which is why I expect we’ll yet again see oil and gas and agricultural commodities spike, though I think trends of a more fleeting nature will not mean-revert.
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The Retirement Income Journal, published by Kerry Pechter, includes a report of a sobering presentation by University of Oklahoma law school professor Jon Forman, arguing that near-ideal conditions (including a 9% contribution rate) are needed to reach retirement adequacy for the approximately 10% of the population that will make it to 100. This podcast (5:53) argues that we should target a 15 percent rate of savings, since ideal conditions do not exist, and that home ownership, portfolio wealth and longevity insurance all enhance financial resilience.
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Jonathan Clements, formerly personal finance columnist for the Wall Street Journal and now founder and editor of HumbleDollar, has long provided a voice of sanity in the money-crazed media. In this podcast (19:08), the legendary columnist addresses how financial advisors can add value to the clients they serve; tells why the paycheck is the central organizing principle of our finances; and explains how investors need to attain a level of excitement to stay on track to achieve their goals. He also shares a riveting tale of the enormous family fortune he didn’t inherit.
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NPR’s Weekend Edition recounts the story of retiring Indiana state employee Bob Vollmer at age 102. In contrast, TD Ameritrade commissioned a Harris Poll survey of the American public, finding that 50 percent retired earlier than they would have liked. This podcast (5:38) argues that advisors must take into consideration the high likelihood that clients in their peak savings years may be undercut by involuntary early retirement, and also speculates on the qualities enabling a robust late retirement of the kind exemplified by Vollmer.
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