SA’s manufacturing production data for March was shocking, down 2.2% m/m from -1% m/m in February, and down -6.4% y/y. This, together with weak mining and consumer data, is likely to translate into a very disappointing Q1 GDP outcome. However, the absence of load shedding in April could stimulate manufacturing. There is clearly an underlying improvement in the country’s electricity generation, with Kusile units coming on line, fewer breakdowns and a contribution from private sector investment in solar. What is critical is whether electricity generation and private sector participation in infrastructure will continue after the National Election. If that happens, SA’s GDP growth rate could lift in the second half of the year and in the longer term.

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