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Markets faced pressure in the middle of the trading session, though stocks managed to jump off the morning lows and close higher on the day. Kevin Green warns that downside risk is still possible with two open gaps in the SPX that could see a retest. A bullish indicator favoring SPX upside is the tech to utilities ratio, as Kevin explains the potential for tech to rally further.
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Illinois' new "sin tax" on sports betting may be a short-term pain for companies like DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel, but Morningstar's Dan Wasiolek says it's a manageable hit to margins. He expects the sports betting space to continue growing, even if new jurisdictions don't come online as quickly as expected. He points to a $30 billion revenue estimate for U.S. sports betting by 2030 and sees growth in profitability for leaders like DraftKings, which he says could weather a recession better than traditional casinos.
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The April JOLTS data shows a mixed bag for the labor market, with more job openings than expected, but also a decline in quits and an uptick in layoffs. Jake Clopton and Jordan Rizzuto break down the numbers. They discuss the potential for a "soft landing" in the economy. They also share their thoughts on what to expect for the rest of the year and how it may impact the S&P 500.
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The amount of energy Meta Platforms (META) will buy from Constellation Energy (CEG) in its new deal can power a million homes, says Travis Miller. While the deal is huge when it comes to power production, Travis says there's too many unknowns in how huge it will be for either company's top line. That uncertainty reflected in Constellation's stock price today. Travis explains his bearish perspective on Constellation and similar companies like Vistra (VST) and NRG Energy (NRG).
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Kevin Horner says the S&P 500's (SPX) push towards 6000 is a "nice setup" for a potential higher close. He notes that the index has held above its 20-day moving average since April 22. On the individual stock front, Kevin is also watching significant moves in Astera Labs (ALAB) and Nebius (NBIS).
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Melissa Armo expects a "wild" June in the markets. She shares hesitation on going long in the current environment, pointing to a lack of liquidity from big buyers as a bearish signal. Melissa adds that there's a conundrum in the FOMC, arguing that the Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year while tariffs create more of a burden on the American consumer. On stock picks, Melissa favors Netflix (NFLX) and Meta Platforms (META) despite the macro volatility.
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Ivana Delevska expects a slight beat in Crowdstrike's (CRWD) earnings, but she sees guidance as the most important metric. She argues that lots of upside is already priced into the stock and will need exemplary numbers to rally in an "overstretched" sector. Ken Mahoney adds that a raise will be needed to hold momentum in Crowdstrike's all-time high run. He believes the Delta Airlines (DAL) lawsuit against Crowdstrike is already priced into the stock.
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Dollar General (DG) shares surged more than 10% after beating earnings estimates, fueled by a strong consumer and solid job market. Jan Rogers Kniffen says DG's success is a sign of a resilient lower-end consumer. With wage growth outpacing inflation and low unemployment, Kniffen expects other discount retailers like Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Five Below (FIVE) to follow suit. However, he does express concerns about the rising popularity of buy-now, pay-later services like Affirm (AFRM) and Klarna, which could lead to increased financial pressure on consumers if not managed carefully.
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David Finkelstein says the greatest strength in the economy is in the technology sector, driven by A.I. innovation and productivity enhancements. However, he sees the biggest risks on the fiscal side, citing the country's unsustainable level of debt and interest burden. Finkelstein believes tariffs will average in the low double digits, down from 18% previously, and expects the market to become desensitized to trade uncertainty. On the Fed, he predicts no rate cuts until the fourth quarter, when the employment mandate takes center stage due to a slowing economy and tariff-related uncertainty.
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Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings showed conviction for broader A.I. adoption, according to Jessica Inskip. One headwind she's watching: China, and how tariffs can generate roadblocks for Nvidia's growth. Jessica also notes Kinder Morgan (KMI) as a stable trade amid volatility, and Verizon (VZ) as a solid yield play. Rick Ducat gives investors insight into the chart trends supporting Jessica's reasoning.
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