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Dan Deming covers commodities. He looks at crude, saying that markets expected higher demand than we got, leading to pressure on prices due to oversupply. $3,400 is a “key psychological level” for gold, though not necessarily a technical, Dan thinks. “I don’t see gold giving up too much ground here” with demand remaining strong, he adds. He thinks Bitcoin and Ethereum’s upticks today are driven by the Bullish (BLSH) IPO today.
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The SPX dragged as Wednesday's session went on, with Kevin Green pointing to mega caps' lagging price action as the culprit. However, he highlights the SPX Equal Weight surging, signaling broader market participation. Kevin later highlights "aggressive" VIX options as volatility continued leaking to the downside.
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Jillian DelSignore from Nasdaq discusses their latest income survey for investors. She discusses how the results have changed from their last survey two years ago, noting that while income-oriented investment allocations have remained about the same, the strategies have changed. She sees a “meaningful” increase in passive ETF inflows and active mutual funds. “There’s potentially a real information gap and opportunity” for active ETF managers, she says.
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Marta Norton says expectations of a September rate cut are what’s driving the market higher as it hits fresh records. “It does really feel like we’re at an inflection point,” she continues, digging into the labor market data revisions and the potential for inflation vs strong corporate earnings. While she doesn’t expect tariffs to “tip us into a recession,” she expects them to start dragging down the economy into the end of the year. Marta also compares the short-term and long-term AI narratives.
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John Fieldly, Chairman & CEO of Celsius (CELH), talks about the company's recent earnings led by a sales surge following its acquisition of Alani Nu. He notes that female and Gen Z customers are the ones leading the company's growth though a new "movement" in the energy drink space. John sees "big opportunity" in international sales as the company expands its worldwide footprint. Tariffs present headwinds to Celsius, though John believes Alani Nu will act as a buoy to offset some downside.
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Investors need to be looking past September to the end of Jerome Powell’s term, says John Petrides. “The market is going to start pricing in that whoever the next Fed Chair is, they’ll be dovish.” He says the market will assume the new Fed Chair will be in-line with President Trump’s desire to lower rates. However, Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and other U.S. policies are increasing debt, potentially straining demand in the bond market. Thus, he thinks the front end of the curve will come down while the longer end remains higher, creating a wider spread.
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Rob Thummel and Ellen Wald cover the energy space. Ellen focuses on OPEC’s latest moves and how oil demand levels are being weighted around the world. Rob looks at the evolution of the energy sector, expecting natural gas demand to grow and calling electricity “the new oil.” Ellen doesn’t expect any peace deal to come out of the upcoming U.S./Russia meeting and talks potential fallout, including sanctions, which could put upward pressure on crude prices.
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George Seay highlights “sea changes under the surface” of the market, saying Mag 7 stocks are showing “topping behavior.” He advises investors to reassess their positions, adding that it may be time to trim winners. “You need to be really careful trying to time the market” on valuation, he stresses. However, he also thinks investors should always have one foot in, rather than selling everything. He likes oil and natural gas, Paramount Skydance (PSKY), and “out of favor” names like UNH and UPS.
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Doug Cohen compares the market cycle to the dot-com bubble. He argues that while parts of the market, like meme stocks or cyber, are “frothy,” the 90’s won’t repeat themselves because the leadership of the market is the Mag 7. He thinks that these “well-established” companies that can be used for “offense or defense” and have strong balance sheets can continue to buoy the whole market. He also thinks that AI will make us “lose a lot of jobs” which will lead to further social dissension: “I worry about the societal fabrics.” But from an equity perspective, he says, “this is the golden era” of AI.
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Phil Kafarakis covers the latest restaurant earnings. He breaks down Brinker (EAT), owner of Chili’s: “they have found the magic.” He says the chain has “incredible things” going on in their advertising, is making their restaurants more efficient, and is attracting a younger crowd. On Cava (CAVA): “it’s a shame” everyone is jumping off the stock, he says after a mixed earnings report. “They’re attracting that professional group” that pays for a more expensive meal, he argues. He also surveys industry trends, including navigating supply chains and inventory.
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