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Mike Dickson is a “little worried” that lofty valuations are creating a higher bar to clear than usual this earnings season. “We’re not used to divergence among the Mag 7” – but we’re seeing it this year, he adds. He explains what he’s watching for in Mag 7 earnings this week and next week and emphasizes the need for “solid follow-through” to keep markets heading higher.
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@CharlesSchwab's Liz Ann Sonders sees companies that beat earnings aren't being rewarded as heavily as expected, while companies that miss get heavily beaten down. She says the "psychological bar" for earnings is higher for investors after tariffs lowered them for the prior quarter.
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JP Morgan downgraded Lululemon (LULU) as the stock trades near May 2020 levels. The stock has underperformed over the last year, but as Rick Ducat explains, it's not the worst performer among its peers. He takes a broader look at the consumer discretionary space to see how tariffs have affected the sector's price action. As for Lululemon, Rick turns to the technicals investors should watch as he weighs the potential for the stock to fall further.
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Christopher P. Davis covers defense stock earnings. Northrup Grumman (NOC) hit an all-time high after earnings, which Christopher attributes to its free cash flow and guidance. On the other hand, Lockheed Martin (LMT) fell after a big profit miss, which he blames on its narrow product focus. RTX (RTX) beat quarterly expectations but lowered full-year guidance due to tariffs; Chris emphasizes their enormous size. He particularly likes Amentum (AMTM) in the space.
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Andrew Graham likes low-beta stocks right now, encompassing names like Cisco Systems (CSCO), where he likes their innovation and a potential corporate tech cycle. He’s also watching Synopsys (SNPS), which he calls “less expensive” than its peers. In energy, he likes EQT (EQT) as a natural gas play. Andrew shares his expectations around the August 1 trade deadline and the 2Q earnings season.
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Kevin Horner walks through his Technical Tuesday charts. On the SPX, which closed at records yesterday, he highlights the 10-day moving average: “things are getting a little more momentum-based.” The chart of Guidewire (GWRE) shows a recent pullback from the top of a linear regression channel. Oklo (OKLO) is a “trickier one” as it rallied into resistance and fell off, with support around the 50-day moving average.
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David Mann looks at trends in the ETF market as active ETFs continue to boom. “There are more active ETFs than index ETFs in the United States,” he says, and thinks net inflows could hit $500 billion this year. He shares some ETF options from his firm, Franklin Templeton, including INCM, PVAL & FLMI.
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Dean Bell breaks down insights from KPMG’s mid-year M&A survey. In May, 74% of surveyed dealmakers expect 2025 to be more active than 2024, with the majority in the second half of the year. Lower rates and certainty around tariffs would help the industry. He’s “most bullish” on technology & telecom and says everyone is trying to buy tech. “90% of our respondents said they’re using AI,” he adds. Dean expects to see “bigger deals” this year.
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Lockheed Martin (LMT) became the worst performer on the SPX after it posted over $1.6 billion in pre-tax losses in earnings. Despite the setback, Frances Stacy says shares are "on sale." A triple bottom in the stock, combined with geopolitical risk make the stock a buy, according to Frances. Tony Bancroft adds that demand for the company's F-35 jet will only accelerate.
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Eric Cole (@DrEricCole) says TikTok has "turned into a political pawn" amid a trade war with China. Eric believes Amazon (AMZN) would make a better fit as a corporate owner and could provide a direct pipeline to Amazon's e-commerce platform. However, Eric cautions that a TikTok deal likely won't be done by September's deadline and believes defining data sovereignty is more important than who's buying TikTok. He suggests the President considers an Executive Order to establish domestic storage of data as well as increased security from domestic social media companies using the data.
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