Schwab Network

"The momentum trade is still in full force," says Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, noting heavily-shorted corners of the market doing especially well thanks to retail traders. Some investment firms are still holding cash on the sidelines. Liz Ann later notes divergences when it comes to stock outperformers. She goes as far to say that the Mag 7 is actually the "Mag 3" with Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) being the members of the group rallying past the SPX year-to-date.

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Kevin Davitt says positive market breadth in the Nasdaq-100 is “unequivocally” driving it as the index makes another all-time high. “Hedge when you can, not when you have to,” is a phrase he’s thinking about with this run up, though. He also looks at average daily volumes and argues the market is “expressing a view” about what’s next.

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"Ever-growing hunger" for electricity over A.I. demand makes the energy sector one investors should watch. Rick Ducat turns to technical trends in the industry, offering a look into where it stands compared to the SPX and several individual energy stocks. He also analyzes the chart and options for SLB (SLB) ahead of its earnings report on Friday.

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David Botset monitors ETF flows and what they tell us about market sentiment. “Those investors that use ETFs…have confidence that their portfolios can recover from downturns and help them meet their long-term objectives.” After a record year of inflows in 2024, 2025 is on pace to make new highs. He discusses shifts in asset allocations within ETFs this year, especially towards lower-cost products.

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Michael Green homes in on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers today. “There’s very strong pricing expectations” despite tariff impacts not showing up yet. “Roughly 90% of households are going to be slightly worse off” because of tariffs, with some hit far worse, he argues. Looking at recent all-time highs, he says, “From a valuation perspective, we are absolutely running out of room” to move higher.

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Zach Warring and Lisa Martin take on June Retail Sales. Zach cautions around just looking at one month’s data to get a market picture. Lisa says the report shows “higher prices aren’t hurting spending – yet.” She thinks demand is still pulled forward because of tariff fears and that consumers are still in good shape. Zach, who is watching stocks like Lululemon (LULU) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), thinks that the market has priced in a harder 2H25 when tariff impacts hit. Because multiples have fallen, he thinks investing in his favorites is practically “risk free.”

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Lucas Downey expects a seasonal pullback after the steep SPX rally. He urges investors not to panic and instead buy on the anticipated dip. Lucas leans toward buying dips in tech, particularly Meta Platforms (META), noting its data collection and A.I. capabilities as strong bullish indicators. He also likes Lam Research (LRCX) and TSMC (TSM).

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Michael Gates of Blackrock (BLK) talks tactical ETF offerings and market rotation. He explains ETF “styles”, such as focusing on smaller or larger companies or other rubrics. His top exposures are in the Mag 7 right now. In 2H25, he expects the AI theme to remain important: “that’s a portion of the market we have conviction in.”

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Jharonne Martis breaks down the June Retail Sales data and how it relates to Consumer Confidence numbers. She expects discounters to continue to do well as consumers “continue to trade down.” Jharonne also highlights the back-to-school season, which could benefit names like TJX Companies (TJX). She also thinks Ralph Lauren (RL), which has a loyal customer base, will do well. However, she notes that consumers are still spending on experiences over goods and looks at restaurants and the entertainment sector as well.

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More advertisers are taking notice of Reddit (RDDT). LikeFolio's data shows the company has seen nearly a 330% increase in ad manager visits year-over-year. Megan Brantley says A.I. poses a challenge to search companies similar to Reddit, though she believes the ways advertisers can use the platform gives Reddit a chance to accelerate its scale.

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