Schwab Network

Nvidia (NVDA) hit $4 trillion in market cap, the first company to ever do so. Kim Forrest says the drive higher was not for fundamental reasons and made the stock "richly valued." She still believes it will remain the leader "for the foreseeable future." Kim also notes how LLM codes are becoming archaic in some ways, arguing builders need to update them sooner rather than later.

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Penguin Solutions (PENG) posted earnings that impressed investors, as the stock rallied more than 10% on the session. Memory growth showed their biggest strength, which Charles Schwab's Ben Watson argues flips the page to a "turnaround story" for Penguin.

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David Kudla looks ahead to 2Q earnings season, with a consensus estimate of 5% growth. He thinks fiscal stimulus in the tax bill and the Fed cutting rates in the back half of the year will boost markets, propelling them to new all-time highs. He also gives his estimates for U.S. GDP this year, anticipating a good overall growth rate.

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Liz Ann Sonders with Charles Schwab takes a closer look at today's FOMC meeting minutes from the June congregation. She notes dispersion between Fed heads on how many interest rate cuts the U.S. should have. Liz Ann also talks about the diversion she's seeing in sector leadership on Wall Street. Michelle Gibley later talks about the "tariff can kicked down the road." While the U.S. extended its timeline on tariff talks, Michelle shares caution when it comes to China.

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Dan Deming says the FOMC minutes show inflation has not behaved how the Fed expected over the last few months. “It doesn’t appear they’re going to be in any hurry” to cut rates. While we have seen layoffs, Dan thinks the labor market is still strong. Turning to copper after President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on the metal, he notes that would threaten U.S. supply and explains what other ramifications there could be.

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Rick Ducat turns to the healthcare sector on today's options analysis. He starts with the SPDR Health Care ETF (XLV), noting the recent breakdown of a head and shoulders pattern and potential for both bearish and bullish action ahead. He also looks at the recent "bottoming out" of Merck (MRK) and shows the levels investors should watch moving forward.

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Ross Gerber returns to Market On Close to talk all things Tesla (TSLA). On Elon Musk, Ross shares concern with the CEO starting his "America Party," calling it a reversal of his promise to turn his attention back on the company. On autonomous driving, he argues Tesla is far behind companies like Alphabet's (GOOGL) Waymo, something he believes Musk needs to put more emphasis on. While many investors focus on the company's promises of future tech, Ross instead has his mind on the present as EV sales plunge.

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Max Wasserman says the market is running on “pure momentum” and FOMO. “I don’t think anyone’s concerned about tariffs right now. I don’t think anyone’s concerned about valuation…people are ignoring interest rates.” He thinks the market will wake up sometime in the fall, especially as the Fed moves: “at some point, gravity’s going to come in.” He likes Visa (V), especially towards the end of the year.

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Brian Jacobsen and Andrew Wells break down the latest trade news. “If we look at our successes to date, the market’s probably getting pretty comfortable” about potential deals, says Andrew. Brian focuses on major U.S. trading partners and thinks we can model what trade agreements might look like for them. “We’re going to be hearing from companies about what things might look like” in this latest earnings season, after months of hedging, he adds.

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David Steinbach reacts to the breaking FOMC minutes. He thinks that it’s a good time to buy real estate and says the private markets are “a very unique opportunity.” Investing in “hard assets” will “do well in the times we’re in right now,” he argues, comparing today’s situation to the ‘60s. “Making some smart decisions today will pay dividends in the coming years.”

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